Monday, 11 December 2023

From about lunchtime onwards (South Coast) and late afternoon across the Sydney region, we'll be on high alert for the leading edge of a decent long period southerly groundswell.

Friday, 8 December 2023

TC Jasper is set to take a W’ly track with a Far North QLD coastal crossing now the most likely outcome and thus no real surf potential for temperate NSW.

Wednesday, 6 December 2023

TC Jasper has formed in water surrounding the Solomon Islands and is intensifying under favourable conditions. Most models now are suggesting a SW-W curvature as it enters the Coral Sea, with a limited surf potential compared to Mondays notes, especially for temperate NSW.

Monday, 4 December 2023

Weak high pressure in the Tasman and a trough is creating a “doldrums” type pattern of slack pressure gradients and small swells this week, with a few wind changes to negotiate. No major swells expected this week. The headline feature is a potential major tropical cyclone drifting into the Coral Sea with a poleward (southwards) track late this week, over the weekend and into next week.

Friday, 1 December 2023

Low pressure has moved off the coast and is slow moving, with a broad fetch of strong E’ly winds on the southern flank of the low supplying plenty of E-E/SE swell to Southern NSW (and Tasmania).

Wednesday, 29 November 2023

A dynamic weather event is underway as a complex inland low approaches the Far South Coast of NSW, expected to enter the Tasman Sea tomorrow. A moist NE-E/NE infeed into the low is generating plenty of rain (heaviest falls on the South Coast) and building swells from the same direction.

Monday, 27 November 2023

Another dynamic week ahead with a complex trough expected to form a surface low off the NSW South Coast mid week, details below.

Friday, 24 November 2023

Not a great deal of action likely this weekend. High pressure is straddling Tasmania with the remnants of a front lingering near New Zealand with an off-axis fetch. A coastal trough and an inland trough maintain unstable conditions with a developing N-NE flow over the weekend.

Wednesday, 22 November 2023

It’s a weak synoptic pattern with no major swell sources- a passing front weakens as it traverses the Tasman, leaving an off-axis fetch parallel with New Zealand. There should be enough minor swell sources of no real quality to stay wet through the short term.

Monday, 20 November 2023

The troughy pattern remains installed into the medium term so we’re still keeping an eye out for short range features which could supply local swell sources.