COVID-19 Health System Overload Forecaster

Craig's picture
Craig started the topic in Wednesday, 18 Mar 2020 at 7:44pm

I've created a spreadsheet forecast which I'll update as we go..

There's also a website with live running data.. https://sites.google.com/view/stayhomeaustralia

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brutus Saturday, 2 Oct 2021 at 10:37am

Hutchy you support one of the greatest liars in History , who was and is responsible for so many Covid deaths , and sickness's you know the bloke with orange fake tan , orange fake hair , he was and is the king of Fake news ....read what I posted about AZ and get back to me , or not!

as for the enquiring mind comment , what is there to enquire about when you have no idea what you are enquiring about...have no expertise , very little street smarts....I mean porous borders, LOL?

Hutchy 19 wrote:

Brutus -" I posted above it's trying to work out the false scientists/Drs misinformation.........and why people are vaccine hesitant "

You answered your own question -" it's trying to work out the false scientists/Drs
misinformation."

The story from experts like Fauci has changed too many times and he has been PROVED to have lied about funding "gain of function " research . And you still are not hesitant and believe everything from a proven liar . Not me .

It is only people like you that don't have an enquiring mind that are not hesitant .

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blindboy Saturday, 2 Oct 2021 at 10:47am

The politics of this are worth thinking about also. The UAP are simply a means of rounding up the anti-vaxxers, climate deniers and various other fringe groups in order to deliver their votes to the LNP via preferences. So we have the spectacle of a member of parliament, who used to be part of the government, undermining the public health effort by throwing doubt on the efficacy and safety of vaccines while funded by a (quite literally) bloated plutocrat. All simply to improve his business prospects by pressuring the government not to act on emissions, the main source of his wealth. Immoral? No, I think we can go to amoral on this issue.

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san Guine Saturday, 2 Oct 2021 at 11:18am

"So we have the spectacle of a member of parliament, who used to be part of the government, undermining the public health effort..."

100% BB,
And all the while, shamelessly suckling on the teat of the taxpayer funded politicians' entitlement. Amoral is correct.

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san Guine Saturday, 2 Oct 2021 at 12:27pm
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bluediamond Saturday, 2 Oct 2021 at 12:44pm
old-dog wrote:

The anti vax thread was relegated to the back blocks where it belongs and then some naive "Im not anti vax but..." moron "doing their own research" LOL, has the stupidity to dredge it up again. Now that is fucking gold. I'm still calling BD is an 11 year old chick. (not that there is anything wrong with that ). If your interpretation of the data was correct it would be headlines across the world. Leave the sciency stuff to the experts love.

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bluediamond Saturday, 2 Oct 2021 at 12:45pm

Online tough guy huh?
Would love you to come and say that to my face. Nothing weaker than an online troll. Get a life dipshit

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shoredump Saturday, 2 Oct 2021 at 1:07pm
san Guine wrote:

It's all about the unvaccinated

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/01/us/us-covid-deaths-700k.html

Good luck san Guine, don’t forget to look after yourself first

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donweather Saturday, 2 Oct 2021 at 1:09pm
san Guine wrote:

It's all about the unvaccinated

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/01/us/us-covid-deaths-700k.html

paywall

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blackers Saturday, 2 Oct 2021 at 1:22pm

Maybe have another look Don, worked for me.

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freeride76 Saturday, 2 Oct 2021 at 1:43pm

"Her death came in the virus surge that gripped the country all summer, as the Delta variant hurtled through the South, Pacific Northwest and parts of the Midwest. Close to 100,000 people across the United States have died of Covid-19 since mid-June, months after vaccines were available to American adults."

Absolutely mental.

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Blowin Saturday, 2 Oct 2021 at 2:44pm
freeride76 wrote:

"Her death came in the virus surge that gripped the country all summer, as the Delta variant hurtled through the South, Pacific Northwest and parts of the Midwest. Close to 100,000 people across the United States have died of Covid-19 since mid-June, months after vaccines were available to American adults."

Absolutely mental.

I don’t believe it. I reckon US Covid stats are so juiced as to be pure fiction. Let’s compare US to Indonesia….ballpark sized populations 330M vs 280M.

US vaccination rate - first dose 214M, fully vaccinated 185M. Total Covid deaths 700K.

Indo vaccination rate - first dose -91M first, fully vaccinated 51M . Total Covid deaths 142K.

US has 100K Covid deaths in 5 months of summer…..pfffft.

The US is home to the politicisation of the virus. The US rivals China for Covid lies. China - 1042M population- has had 5 Covid deaths in 4 months. 4600 deaths since it began….

Lies, lies,lies.

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freeride76 Saturday, 2 Oct 2021 at 2:53pm

You think they have invented a hundred thousand dead people to win a political point?

thats a helluva lie.

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goofyfoot Saturday, 2 Oct 2021 at 2:54pm

You don’t think it might be Indo isn’t reporting every single death correctly?

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sypkan Saturday, 2 Oct 2021 at 3:01pm

...the old...

'dies with covid...'

'dies from covid...'

Blowin's picture
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Blowin Saturday, 2 Oct 2021 at 3:07pm

Yes. I think they exaggerate and lie.

Straight up.

Goofy- Indo isn’t the outlier. The US is the outlier. Despite the lack of free health care, the US is still the richest and most developed nation in the world. No one is claiming that people in the US are dying from neglect whilst they’ve got Covid. How can it be that the US has the highest number of Covid deaths in the world? Almost twice more than second place India, which has almost 5 times as many people.

It’s pure politicised lies.

The US shares a border with Canada. Canada is another comparatively developed and prosperous nation, yet the US has a fatality rate of 2156 deaths per million population whilst Canada’s is 732 per million.

Cough cough bullshit cough

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sypkan Saturday, 2 Oct 2021 at 3:08pm

"...Let’s compare US to Indonesia….ballpark sized populations 330M vs 280M.

US vaccination rate - first dose 214M, fully vaccinated 185M. Total Covid deaths 700K.

Indo vaccination rate - first dose -91M first, fully vaccinated 51M . Total Covid deaths 142K.

US has 100K Covid deaths in 5 months of summer…..pfffft."

something doesn't add up...

either the counting is way off

the vaccines are bordering totally useless

or the western world is doing something fundamentally wrong...

all of the above?

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sypkan Saturday, 2 Oct 2021 at 3:10pm

"You don’t think it might be Indo isn’t reporting every single death correctly?"

there's a bit of that... many indos didn't even make it to hospital to get diagnosed...

but that doesn't add up to such a large discrepancy

especially when hospital cases were more than likely overcounted...

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blindboy Saturday, 2 Oct 2021 at 3:08pm

"I don’t believe it. I reckon US Covid stats are so juiced as to be pure fiction. "

So what are they all dying of? Or is the funeral industry part of the grand conspiracy along with medical researchers, big Pharma, the US government, millions of medical personnel, the MSM, both political parties etc etc.

More shallow offensive nonsense from the master of it.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/florida-funeral-homes-covid-deaths-overwork...

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sypkan Saturday, 2 Oct 2021 at 3:09pm

maybe it's the hamburgers...

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sypkan Saturday, 2 Oct 2021 at 3:13pm
blindboy wrote:

"I don’t believe it. I reckon US Covid stats are so juiced as to be pure fiction. "

So what are they all dying of? Or is the funeral industry part of the grand conspiracy along with medical researchers, big Pharma, the US government, millions of medical personnel, the MSM, both political parties etc etc.

More shallow offensive nonsense from the master of it.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/florida-funeral-homes-covid-deaths-overwork...

stating the obvious...

but you really really are easily offended

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blindboy Saturday, 2 Oct 2021 at 3:22pm

Yes I am seriously offended when people with the capacity to know better spread misinformation that undermines our public health strategy for no discernible purpose beyond boosting their own inadequate egos.

My daughter is currently in charge of triage at a major Sydney hospital and has been overworked and stressed for months and is now exposed to the risk of infection every shift, with the worst yet to come. The work of fuckwits like our mutual friend in challenging the seriousness of the disease and the need for vaccination carries some reponsibility for that along with the numerous other selfish arseholes pushing the same bullshit. So offended doesn't even touch the sides really, disgusted, appalled and contemptuous come a bit closer.

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shoredump Saturday, 2 Oct 2021 at 3:18pm
sypkan wrote:

maybe it's the hamburgers...

It literally is

It’s no secret that covid does far more damage if you are old, obese or have diabetes

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blindboy Saturday, 2 Oct 2021 at 3:23pm

And again

Yes I am seriously offended when people with the capacity to know better spread misinformation that undermines our public health strategy for no discernible purpose beyond boosting their own inadequate egos.

My daughter is currently in charge of triage at a major Sydney hospital and has been overworked and stressed for months and is now exposed to the risk of infection every shift, with the worst yet to come. The work of fuckwits like our mutual friend in challenging the seriousness of the disease and the need for vaccination carries some reponsibility for that along with the numerous other selfish arseholes pushing the same bullshit. So offended doesn't even touch the sides really, disgusted, appalled and contemptuous come a bit closer.

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sypkan Saturday, 2 Oct 2021 at 3:23pm
shoredump wrote:
sypkan wrote:

maybe it's the hamburgers...

It literally is

It’s no secret that covid does far more damage if you are old, obese or have diabetes

yeh, I was only half joking...

problem is, there's a hell of a lot of old and diabetes in indonesia... obesity less so...

super substandard health system...

still doesn't add up for me

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sypkan Saturday, 2 Oct 2021 at 3:37pm

"...for no discernible purpose beyond boosting their own inadequate egos."

maybe... just maybe... it's got nothing at all to do with egos...

maybe... just maybe... some people have more inquiring minds than your coralled of thought self, and can see a heap of shit just don't add up...

rather than getting all triggered and shit, how about trying to explain the mammoth discrepancy that blowin has pointed out

a massive discrepancy that has been playing on my my mind, as I have more than a casual interest in in the place beyond a few indo tubes...

you're the science man... your curiousity must be piqued a little... surely...

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blindboy Saturday, 2 Oct 2021 at 3:49pm

I am happy to address the original data if a link is provided. Other than that I just assume it's the usual cherry picking and misinterpretation. I am not prepared to waste my time on his report of a report in unreliable media of a study that may or may not be valid.

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freeride76 Saturday, 2 Oct 2021 at 3:49pm

I mean even if you halve the numbers.

50000 dead in the last few months.

That's a lie?

You'd need a helluva lot of credulity to believe that many dead bodies can be manufactured/hid or whatever.

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Blowin Saturday, 2 Oct 2021 at 3:51pm

People are dying in the US. They’re just dying from things unrelated to Covid and Covid is being blamed.

BB….spare me the quivering lipped outrage cause I don’t give a rat’s what you think. You think that any word raised against the idea that Covid is Fat Boy at Hiroshima plus Cyclone Tracy plus Black Death plus the Mongol Hordes multiplied by all four riders of the apocalypse. You’re as hysterical about this as you are about everything.

Remember the two minutes to midnight doomsday clock? Yeah, that’s right. You had your panties in a bunch about that, you’ve got your panties in a bunch about this and next year you’ll have your panties in a bunch about something else.

Russia …..Lololol

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freeride76 Saturday, 2 Oct 2021 at 3:54pm

"An overwhelming majority of Americans who have died in recent months, a period in which the country has offered broad access to shots, were unvaccinated. The United States has had one of the highest recent death rates of any country with an ample supply of vaccines."

Might this have something to do with it?

In the US at least?

Unvaccinated, obese population?

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Blowin Saturday, 2 Oct 2021 at 3:56pm
freeride76 wrote:

I mean even if you halve the numbers.

50000 dead in the last few months.

That's a lie?

You'd need a helluva lot of credulity to believe that many dead bodies can be manufactured/hid or whatever.

Who’s manufacturing and hiding dead bodies? The death certificates are shonky. Even here in Australia we are counting people who are literally in palliative care as Covid deaths, can you imagine the book cooking going down in the US where hospitals are literally paid per Covid death?

Anyway….you think I’m full of shit right? What’s your alternative explanation? I’m sure BB will cock on about Trump or Right wing anti vaccinators or some other such dribble he’s been fed. But you’re a shed load smarter than BB, Freeride so what is your suggestion?

Unlucky?

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Hutchy 19 Saturday, 2 Oct 2021 at 3:57pm

BB I saw you wrote this which made me fall off my seat -"Yes I am seriously offended when people with the capacity to know better spread misinformation that undermines our public health strategy for no discernible purpose beyond boosting their own inadequate egos."

Seriously !!!

Mate you do this all the time and deliberately lie and never admit to making mistakes . Plus you told me to not let it PISS me off . You are a real strange chap !

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freeride76 Saturday, 2 Oct 2021 at 3:57pm

"They’re just dying from things unrelated to Covid and Covid is being blamed."

700000 of them?

Thats a helluva lot of dead bodies to misinterpret.

Blowin's picture
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Blowin Saturday, 2 Oct 2021 at 4:00pm
freeride76 wrote:

"An overwhelming majority of Americans who have died in recent months, a period in which the country has offered broad access to shots, were unvaccinated. The United States has had one of the highest recent death rates of any country with an ample supply of vaccines."

Might this have something to do with it?

In the US at least?

Unvaccinated, obese population?

Indonesians are often malnourished, chain smokers who either live in unhealthy rural poverty doing unsafe toxic work or unhealthy urban poverty breathing heavily polluted air. The worst medical treatment in the US would be standard in Indo. The Indonesians are fully vaccinated at 18%of the population, US vaccinated at 56 % of population.

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freeride76 Saturday, 2 Oct 2021 at 4:01pm

My explanation?

I just gave it above.

Covid running riot through an obese, unvaccinated population cohort.

That seems (to me), given the weight of evidence, more likely than a 100000 shonky death certificates.

Let alone 700000 shonky death certificates.

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Blowin Saturday, 2 Oct 2021 at 4:04pm
freeride76 wrote:

"An overwhelming majority of Americans who have died in recent months, a period in which the country has offered broad access to shots, were unvaccinated. The United States has had one of the highest recent death rates of any country with an ample supply of vaccines."

Might this have something to do with it?

In the US at least?

Unvaccinated, obese population?

Indonesians are often malnourished, chain smokers who either live in unhealthy rural poverty doing unsafe toxic work or unhealthy urban poverty breathing heavily polluted air. The worst medical treatment in the US would be standard in Indo. The Indonesians are fully vaccinated about 18% of population whilst the US is vaccinated 56% population.

Canada has only 14% more fully vaccinated than the US but one third the deaths per million people.

US= Home of lies.

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Blowin Saturday, 2 Oct 2021 at 4:03pm

Cool. Believe what you want.

Weapons of mass destruction and all that.

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sypkan Saturday, 2 Oct 2021 at 4:13pm

""They’re just dying from things unrelated to Covid and Covid is being blamed."

700000 of them?

Thats a helluva lot of dead bodies to misinterpret."

I guess it comes down to if deaths in america are higher this year with covid, than what they were pre covid, in a non covid year... and by how much?

I saw it reported australia has actually had less deaths this year, with covid, than a normal year before it burst on the scene...

seen the same said about other countries

not sure about US

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freeride76 Saturday, 2 Oct 2021 at 4:06pm

142000 dead Indonesians still sounds like a lot.

Much younger demographic than America and less obese.

Age and obesity being the 2 main risk factors.

Also probably lots, and lots of older Indos who died in villages and never even went near a hospital.

Also Indo is an island archipelago.

Islands with restricted movement are the best forms of defence.

Not sure how many Indos have been travelling inter-island?
Or even between villages?

Do you know Syppo, or Indo?

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Blowin Saturday, 2 Oct 2021 at 4:11pm

Freeride- The US is the highest death rate anywhere in the world. The most powerful, rich and developed nation has multiples more deaths than any other country.

Canada…shares a border . One third the rate of death.

Anyway mate. We will never reach a conclusion here. You think what you want.

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freeride76 Saturday, 2 Oct 2021 at 4:12pm

Not quite sure what point is being made here?

Covid is a scam like weapons of mass destruction?

Aren't we a bit far down the track for that?

That explanation seems extraordinarily unlikely now.

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freeride76 Saturday, 2 Oct 2021 at 4:15pm

"You think what you want."

What I want really has nothing to do with it.

If someone shows me evidence to back up claims I'll change my mind, as I have done several times during this pandemic.
Remember at the start I thought it was a nothing-burger.

Canada is a much more sparsely populated country, less obese I believe, and with much higher rates of vaccination.
That would easily account for a much lower death rate.

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sypkan Saturday, 2 Oct 2021 at 4:17pm

reported at 'the conversation' no less...

https://www.google.com/amp/s/theconversation.com/amp/died-from-or-died-w...

this happens in oz... in the US... the sky's the limit...

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blindboy Saturday, 2 Oct 2021 at 4:20pm

Some of you should go work on a farm for a while. I hear they are short of workers and with all your experience with cherry picking, straw grasping and shovelling shit you would be highly qualified.

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sypkan Saturday, 2 Oct 2021 at 4:32pm

"Not sure how many Indos have been travelling inter-island?
Or even between villages?

Do you know Syppo, or Indo?"

less than normal... but still shitloads...

'mudik', the ramadan festival where everyone returns to their villages was 'cancelled' to curb a corona outbreak. no travel for two weeks around the holiday... most people just left earlier than the travel restriction and came back later. even in the restricted timeframe, the indo news was full of traffic jams and motorbikes shoulder to shoulder as everyone was trying to get to 'jalan tikus' (small roads) to avoid roadblocks...

much like the indian religious festival, the timing showed this to be almost certainly the seeding event of the big wave

heaps of travel has been restricted, loads of times... but then I know of busloads of people still going regardless...

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brutus Saturday, 2 Oct 2021 at 4:33pm

Blowin the US does not have the highest death rate in the World

USA 1.6%
Belgium 2.1%
France 1.7%
germany 2.2 %
Greece 2.3%
Italy 2.8%
China 4.8%
India 4.8%

Blowin wrote:

Freeride- The US is the highest death rate anywhere in the world. The most powerful, rich and developed nation has multiples more deaths than any other country.

Canada…shares a border . One third the rate of death.

Anyway mate. We will never reach a conclusion here. You think what you want.

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freeride76 Saturday, 2 Oct 2021 at 4:34pm
sypkan wrote:

reported at 'the conversation' no less...

https://www.google.com/amp/s/theconversation.com/amp/died-from-or-died-w...

this happens in oz... in the US... the sky's the limit...

Yeah, sounds like deaths could be revised up and down, according to the above article.

appreciate there is likely some miscounting.

But can we account for hundreds of thousands of deaths in that way?

Look I have an open mind on this.

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Michael Adam Saturday, 2 Oct 2021 at 4:37pm

I wonder how soon the common flu will return. It’s been gone since sarscov2 supposedly hit. Maybe as fully vaxed deaths rise, the flu will return. We’ll see.

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bluediamond Saturday, 2 Oct 2021 at 4:40pm

Re. the TGA self reporting system.
"After a report has been entered into the AEMS (14 days) or IRIS database (3 months), information is transferred to the publicly accessible and searchable Database of Adverse Event Notifications. This time lag enables TGA staff to check and analyse the information in the report."
https://www.tga.gov.au/reporting-adverse-events

So checks are done on each individual report after all. Also...

"All adverse events are risk assessed and entered into the appropriate database for future reference. The information is used by TGA staff to help identify safety signals. A safety signal is a 'flag' for a possible safety concern. When the TGA identifies a signal, it undertakes a detailed evaluation to establish the possible role of the therapeutic good in causing the adverse event."

So that's 60,000 adverse effects reported and followed up on by the TGA. 544 deaths 'possibly' linked to the adverse events. I wonder how many it takes for a detailed evaluation.

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blindboy Saturday, 2 Oct 2021 at 4:48pm

I wonder when people with no.previous experience in epidemiology will stop deliberately misinterpreting data for their own perverted ends.

Jesus bloody cheeses the loons are out in full force this arvo. You couldn't clean up their bullshit with a fire hose.

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bluediamond Saturday, 2 Oct 2021 at 4:58pm

Blindrageboys on it again.