COVID-19 Health System Overload Forecaster
Blowin wrote:blindboy wrote:" I don’t discourage vaccination."
Self knowledge zero. So what was this then and dozens of other similar piles of crap over a long period.
"The AstraZeneca vaccines have not yet been approved* beyond emergency use.
Why do you think that the company which makes it has complete indemnity from any ill effects? Why do you think that anyone who injects it is not liable for any ill effects? Why do you think that the government has a limited liability program capped at $20K for any ill effects?".....but I'm not unreasonable, I'll be happy if you just stop fuckin' doing it from now on.
I was just giving a factual counterpoint to Roadkill’s non-factual claim that these are vaccines like any other. They are not. People should be aware of the consequences when they are coerced by government. This is only fair.
No. You’re not reasonable. You spread unnecessary fear. There is too much fear already in society without you trying to legitimise the excess with your doom fetishisation. It’s unhealthy and dangerous. People don’t think clearly when they are afraid and they are at risk of behaving irrationally.
Please stop telling people the sky is falling. You do it habitually.
I never said these vaccines are like any other.
At least quote me accurately. .
I guess there is fear-mongering over the virus and fear-mongering over the vaccine.
I spent some time below the line on that Alex Berenson Sub-stack.
The hyper-ventilating fear over the vaccine is........astounding.
A lot of the anti-vax rhetoric is just plain bat-shitt cuckoo clock crazy. Full blown, unhinged conspiracy.
"the question is... will all this prove to have been worth it?
people are at the end of their tethers... totally now, almost 2 years in... seemingly due to the length of a drawn out crisis ...rather than the actual severity of it..."
I think thats a fair question and a reasonable summation.
Norway seems to have a different attitude, be good to hear from nomad 1 to see if this report is accurate .
I don't think Norway has a different attitude, all the talk and the roadmap is now living with the virus.
There are just slightly ahead of us on the curve.
Should we have got there earlier?
Time will tell.
sypkan wrote:"...My first impression is that the statistics are unreliable as it is likely deaths have occurred in regional areas without being recorded."
no doubt... however...
"...The death rate, at over 3%, also seems very high (42,105,104 cases, 141,939 deaths), which suggests that many cases are not being recorded."
this works both ways... 3% seems high... probably because the case numbers at best represents about 10 % of the real amount of cases in community... as has been widely suggested
"...My guess at this stage is that the worst could be yet to come but let's hope not. I think you would need to have a very close look at the distribution to get a better idea."
the place was rife with it, as dandandan pointed out, all his colleagues had it, but none got tested... i know of endless examples of this
My wife's neighbourhood pretty much everyone got it, the old got sick quite a few died, everyone else either had a few sniffles or the flue from average to bad.
Now its like its just gone?..weird.
Back in March they were saying 44.5% of Jakarta residents were estimated to have civid anti bodies, so imagine how high that is now, it could be 70+
Much of Indonesia like Java and Bali etc could have a degree of natural immunity which is suppose to be better than being vaccinated.
My prediction a total uneducated one off course, is Indonesia will get waves once or twice a year, people will get reinfected and less get sick with each wave as it will act as a natural booster shot.
In the long run they might actually end up better off than us, or maybe im just being wishful.
That said it seems like some areas of Indonesia outer Islands like Nias have total escaped getting hit from reports ive heard from expats, so they could get hit hard in the future unless vaccination rates are high.
freeride76 wrote:I don't think Norway has a different attitude, all the talk and the roadmap is now living with the virus.
There are just slightly ahead of us on the curve.
Should we have got there earlier?
Time will tell.
. I think they have a different attitude in how the unvaccinated are looked at , it’s hard to say because I’m not there and I was hoping nomad 1 could shed some light on people’s attitude around mandates etc . @freeride did you watch the video ?
yeah I did.
I personally think we will be right behind Norway, Denmark etc etc .
But we will see.
freeride76 wrote:yeah I did.
I personally think we will be right behind Norway, Denmark etc etc .
But we will see.
Seems their mandate rules are very different.
Well, they are now.
Denmark and Norway have already had vaccine passports.
And have now ditched them.
I think we will do likewise, thats if we even bring them in.
Meanwhile in NZ...
:-(
Recently one of the posters on here was turning up the fear to 111 by claiming “ the virus doesn’t discriminate!!!!!”. Well here’s some more facts to counter the Henny Pennys.
The USA is the most heavily impacted country in the world by Covid by a very large margin. Fatalities in the US are almost double that of the second place runner India, despite India’s population being over four times larger than the US’.
The US has over 126, 000,000 people under 30 years of age. This population is plagued by chronic health problems…..obesity, diabetes, poor nutrition, lack of exercise. An extremely vulnerable population to Covid according to the fear mongers. Throw in unvaccinated Trumpers and you can just imagine the broad swathe that the death plague must be cutting through the young Americans.
We’ve all heard about the devastation non- stop from the media and the doom fetishisists. So how many under 30’s have died in the almost 2 years of Death Plague do you think? Take a guess based on the fear mongering you’ve been fed.
The most deaths of anywhere on Earth. A very generous scope when a death is counted as a Covid death. A population of 126.000.000 people under 30 and the total deaths …..4000.
Yes. You read that correctly.
In the same time homicides amongst 18-24 year olds for a single year is over 5000. Car crash deaths in a single year for the under 30s total 15000.
The USA has basically shut down its entire existence in order to prevent Covid. This has not stymied the spread and the result is 2000 deaths per year out of 126,000,000 people. The government is introducing vaccine passports to prevent those who elect not to take a vaccine of limited efficacy form participating in society. They are treated like criminals.
Worse than criminals. Criminals have the opportunity for redemption over time. There is no redemption for those who do not submit to a vaccine and the ensuing vaccine passport. Does this seem proportionate to you?
The US could save way more lives…..millions and millions more lives over a short period of years….if they banned motor vehicles. If they banned smoking. If they banned guns. If they banned processed foods. If they banned alcohol. If they enforced limits on body fat. Yet none of these suggestions would never, ever be considered as it would alter life too much despite the rest of the US leading a quite normal existence. . But the government has no issue with closing the entire country, destroying lives, relationships and businesses for a still yet to be determined period of time over a virus which has an insignificant impact compared to those activities mentioned above.
Why is that do you think?
Addendum…US life expectancy is 78. Over 50% of US Covid deaths are in the >78 age bracket.
"There are 476 people in hospital with COVID-19 across Victoria, with 98 of those in intensive care, including 57 people on a ventilator.
Of the people in hospital on Saturday, only 5 per cent were fully vaccinated.
As of Sunday afternoon, there were 12 teenage patients in hospital, none of whom were fully vaccinated. Of the 22 patients in their 20s, only one was fully vaccinated.
There were 64 patients in their 30s, only one of whom was fully vaccinated, and 60 patients in their 40s, none of whom were fully vaccinated."
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-10-03/covid-patients-begging-for-vaccin...
Island Bay wrote:Meanwhile in NZ...
:-(
Seems to be getting a bit out of control. Cases seem to be spreading.
maybe america just needs that 'right' medicine...
https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/indias-ivermectin-blackout-secret-rev...
https://www.who.int/india/news/feature-stories/detail/uttar-pradesh-goin...
Read an interview the other day in a magazine the topic swung to the pro's and con's of the internet"You can put any bullshit on forums or Facebook and call it non-fiction""And some idiot will go "Ok?"Everybody is not on the same page ,and everybody has their own set of bullshit facts, everybody think's they're the first person in history to finally get it right. And they've got a platform to fucken preach that crap"
"I think the internet is undoing that fabric ,the fabric of teamwork .No one agrees with each other."
"look at the way we reacted to the pandemic .You'd think that would bring everyone onto the same team and would make us fight it ,together but people don't even want to get fucken vaccinated ,and people think it's fake"
Looking around the world to see how we can treat this pandemic I saw today a possible reason why this Indian state has done so well . What can we learn from them and apply here to take the pressure of our health workers and system ?
On May 7, 2021, during the peak of India's Delta Surge, The World Health Organization reported, "Uttar Pradesh (is) going the last mile to stop COVID-19."
The WHO noted, "Government teams are moving across 97,941 villages in 75 districts over five days in this activity which began May 5 in India's most populous state with a population of 230 million."
The activity involved an aggressive house-to-house test and treat program with medicine kits.
The WHO explained, "Each monitoring team has two members who visit homes in villages and remote hamlets to test everyone with symptoms of COVID-19 using Rapid Antigen Test kits. Those who test positive are quickly isolated and given a medicine kit with advice on disease management."
The medicines comprising the kit were not identified as part of the Western media blackout at the time. As a result, the contents were as secret as the sauce at McDonald's.
Dr. John Campbell broke India's Ivermectin Blackout wide open on YouTube by revealing the formula of the secret sauce, much to the dismay of Big Pharma, the WHO, and the CDC. Readers will want to watch this before it is taken down. See mark 2:22.
Each home kit contained the following: Paracetamol tablets [tylenol], Vitamin C, Multivitamin, Zinc, Vitamin D3, Ivermectin 12 mg [quantity #10 tablets], Doxycycline 100 mg [quantity #10 tablets]. Other non-medication components included face masks, sanitizer, gloves and alcohol wipes, a digital thermometer, and a pulse oximeter. See mark 2:33.
Campbell reports that the exciting things in the kit that grabbed his attention were: Zinc, Vitamin D3, Ivermectin, and secondary antibiotic treatment. "Interesting, that’s what the government decided to give." See mark 3:40
John Campbell has reviewed repurposed drugs for COVID before. He has interviewed both Dr. Tess Lawrie and Dr. Pierre Kory. Repurposed drugs hold the potential for benefitting many conditions, not the least of which include viruses and cancers.
Dr. Campbell noted that there had been no recent cases in 59 Uttar Pradesh districts. In addition, out of 191,446 tests completed in the previous 24 hours, only 33 samples were positive for a test positivity rate of only 0.01%. Dr. Campbell called this low number "staggering." See mark 5:05.
By September, cases had fallen dramatically. Out of the entire state of 200 million plus inhabitants, only 187 active cases were left compared to the peak in April of 310,783 cases. See mark 5:41.
Dr. Campbell attributes their success to many factors, including early detection and early treatment with kits costing a mere $ 2.65 per person. See mark 6:20.
Authored by Justus R, Hope via TheDesertReview.com,
The definitive metastudy on ivermectin. Not a happy read for those supporting g it's use.
https://www.cochranelibrary.com/content?templateType=full&urlTitle=/cdsr...
BB - so what worked in Pradesh ?
I tried to call up the Cochrane site and they are off-line . A good sign . I will put my money on the empirical evidence EVERY day of the week .
If you posted it I am sure it is both biased and wrong .
blindboy wrote:The definitive metastudy on ivermectin. Not a happy read for those supporting g it's use.
https://www.cochranelibrary.com/content?templateType=full&urlTitle=/cdsr...
So what does Australia’s Professor Robert Clancy have to say about the highly acclaimed cochrane ? And the state of doctor patient relationship . https://quadrant.org.au/opinion/public-health/2021/09/a-sad-and-shameful...
Roadkill wrote:Island Bay wrote:Meanwhile in NZ...
:-(
Seems to be getting a bit out of control. Cases seem to be spreading.
Not quite what I was referring to. More the complete lack of ideas, or even willingness, to move forward out of the antiquated, narrow lockdown mindset.
Unless the PM has a full damascene conversion, we'll be locked away in our little corner of the world for a long time, I fear.
"the one therapy available that is safe, cheap and which reduces mortality in the order of 60 per cent. "
Cochrane is actually off line at the moment (check if you like) so I will post the actual statement later. In brief they found that the studies that have been done were of small size and poor quality, particularly in many cases having no placebo control group. On the available data they found no evidence that ivermectin either increased or decreased mortality. That Professor Clancy disagrees with it is unfortunate as the study he quotes, without digging too deep, appears to be less authoritative ,while the accusations of bias by Cochrane come from a private company and include this red flag
" The inclusion criteria were restricted to randomised trials (RCTs), and effectively excluded combination therapies by a requirement for co-interventions to be identical in both arms."
In other words Cochrane followed the standards that would be expected of any review of the data. You cannot compare the effects of two combination treatments simply because they share one ingredient. I will keep looking but for the moment anyway I prefer the Cochrane analysis.
Island Bay wrote:Roadkill wrote:Island Bay wrote:Meanwhile in NZ...
:-(
Seems to be getting a bit out of control. Cases seem to be spreading.
Not quite what I was referring to. More the complete lack of ideas, or even willingness, to move forward out of the antiquated, narrow lockdown mindset.
Unless the PM has a full damascene conversion, we'll be locked away in our little corner of the world for a long time, I fear.
Well, Ardern and Labour really never have any real ideas. They will no doubt have a working party and a govt review about to start.
all the talk of misinformation...
well, I had a good chuckle yesterday hearing a quote from the QLD Premier's morning media chat - '...what we know about this virus, is that it will hunt down those people who are unvaccinated'
@blindboy , Sydney-based Professor Thomas Borody does not support this view. He does, however, believe ivermectin-combination therapy can change the course of this pandemic. He and a group of other doctors have treated over 500 COVID-19 patients in Australia with a triple therapy consisting of ivermectin, doxycycline and zinc – without any deaths. The TGA ruling means they can no longer prescribe this combination. They are likely to substitute another off-patent drug, fluvoxamine, developed originally as an antidepressant.
“You have to do things in a process that is acceptable. You have to do it right,” says Borody. The group plans to seek a provisional application from the TGA for the ivermectin triple therapy using a literature-based submission with supportive evidence from patients treated. “We are doing it properly.”
https://www.afr.com/policy/foreign-affairs/the-true-believers-backing-iv... The doctor at the end of this article doesn’t believe ivermectin works , I wonder if he’s treated any patients ? It seems the doctors that use it all around the world believe it works and the doctors that haven’t used it or don’t even treat patients believe it doesn’t work . This doctor has used it on 6000 patients so far . https://globalcovidsummit.org/news/doctor-cites-early-treatment-success-... If the trials that have already been done were not giving any signal that ivermectin was effective then studies by the NIH and Oxford group wouldn’t be going ahead . Merck is pushing hard now for an EUA on its new drug , interesting that it needs to be administered in first 5 days of infection in order to be effective. Should make them a pretty penny too .
"If the trials that have already been done were not giving any signal that ivermectin was effective then studies by the NIH and Oxford group wouldn’t be going ahead . "
Not necessarily. There has been a lot of publicity about ivermectin and various groups continue to lobby for it. They constitute good reasons to establish definitive data. For me the more significant point is that if there was any existing evidence that it can reliably produce real benefits the Cochrane study would have found it. At this stage, even though the studies have been of a low standard, the odds are that it is ineffective.
Roadkill -"Well, Ardern and Labour really never have any real ideas. They will no doubt have a working party and a govt review about to start."
No new ideas anyway . They only ever call a review or inquiry when they have worked out the answers or the findings they want to hear . They then get the right person to run the process with their terms of reference .
Just like the Hotel Quarantine inquiry that found that a department made to tragic decision to hire an ill-equipped company to cause 800 deaths .
Everyone knows that a person makes a decision , not a department .
blindboy wrote:"If the trials that have already been done were not giving any signal that ivermectin was effective then studies by the NIH and Oxford group wouldn’t be going ahead . "
Not necessarily. There has been a lot of publicity about ivermectin and various groups continue to lobby for it. They constitute good reasons to establish definitive data. For me the more significant point is that if there was any existing evidence that it can reliably produce real benefits the Cochrane study would have found it. At this stage, even though the studies have been of a low standard, the odds are that it is ineffective.
Are you aware that Monash are also currently doing trials ?
"'...what we know about this virus, is that it will hunt down those people who are unvaccinated'"
In Australia we have been very lucky that for most people, most of the time the risk of infection has been low. This has given us time to get vaccinated, but it is crunch time for those who have chosen not to as when restrictions are removed the virus will spread rapidly through the population. Apart from the personal risk of hospitalisation, 29 times higher on the US data above, there is the additional burden the unvaccinated will put on the health services. This resukts not just in stress and overwork for medical personnel but also impacts the health of the wider community by restricting access to hospitals for other surgeries and tests. So greenjam, though I am happy to wish you the luck you will need to avoid infection, you, like others undermining public health measures, do not really deserve it.
" Unvaccinated people are about 29 times more likely to be hospitalized with Covid-19 than those who are fully vaccinated, according to a CDC study released Tuesday."
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/24/cdc-study-shows-unvaccinated-people-are-...
The obese, the lazy, the voluntarily unhealthy are far more likely to be hospitalised than the unvaccinated, by orders of magnitude, yet it’s not politically correct to say as much and so the puerile finger pointers amongst us look for more socially acceptable targets.
Covid cases take up a small percentage of hospital beds compared to the vast majority who are hospitalised after poor lifestyle decisions. The Covid cult does not acknowledge this as the Covid cult is only interested in Covid health outcomes.
Just making stuff as usual. No data, no credibility. This is the real situation in the health system. That some distort it for their own perverse reasons is irresponsible and worthy of contempt.
https://theconversation.com/au
blindboy wrote:Just making stuff as usual. No data, no credibility. This is the real situation in the health system. That some distort it for their own perverse reasons is irresponsible and worthy of contempt.
https://theconversation.com/au
not sure which article you are referring too ? Surely it’s not the hesitant healthcare workers.
Ha ha, good one supafreak! But no, I was talking about the post above mine by a notorious fabulist. He suffers from compound ifisayitthreetimnesitstrue syndrome. It can be cured, but the treatment is long and painful so he's probably not up for it.
Anyway, time for a little fresh air. The atmosphere here as been a little foetid this arvo. Too many brain farts...but don't worry. Back soon.
What else have the experts been slow about ? Interesting article by the Telegraph.
Australian ‘expert’ advice was seriously wanting for far too long. They too denigrated the people who actually knew what they were talking about, calling them miasmatists. Some of them still resist the facts. https://t.co/nymSIgdIfA
— Norman Swan (@normanswan) October 4, 2021
Can’t say I’ve seen the trial results for paracetamol and ibuprofen for early treatment of covid , guess we will just have to trust the experts. 
I remember when at the start of this whole debacle at the start of last year it was advised not to take ibuprofen for cov19 as it was said to increase Ace2 receptors in the body . WHO advised against it. Ace2 receptors increase circulation of the virus . As a professor Rodney Rhode said - “Anti inflammatories are known to diminish the response of the immune system. The inflammatory process is a vital component of the overall immune response, especially the second line of defense that triggers many third-line defense mechanisms, such as T and B cell responses. “ I find this interesting, and question why Who has reverted their advice. Any treatment that hinders the body’s own natural immune response should surely be not encouraged?
75% of all anti vax on facebook came from 12 people...you can google the stories...something like 59 million dumb followers spreading the paranoia. We have a couple on here it seems.
Optimist wrote:75% of all anti vax on facebook came from 12 people...you can google the stories...something like 59 million dumb followers spreading the paranoia. We have a couple on here it seems.
You really think that you of all people should be ridiculing the millions of dumb believers who followed the word of 12 disciples of a contentious belief?
saltyone wrote:As professor Rodney Rhode said
Had to read that two times.
Clever call Blowin...like it....But perhaps one group gives abundant life and one takes it away.
Facebook and fact check. https://greatgameindia.com/facebook-factcheck-funded-vaccine-lobby/
Supafreak wrote:Facebook and fact check. https://greatgameindia.com/facebook-factcheck-funded-vaccine-lobby/
saltyone, it is a seriously complicated issue. The link below comes to.the conclusion that ibuprofen may be of benefit. I haven't worked through the evidence but if you are interested, it is all there.
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/ctm2.371
That type of funding always raises concerns. So what you need to do now is find evidence that the funders influenced the findings, which factcheck, emphatically denies. Either that or find an error in their findings, sorry but it needs to be a real one with evidence, not just a brain fart or an unsubstantiated allegation from an unreliable source.
blindboy wrote:That type of funding always raises concerns. So what you need to do now is find evidence that the funders influenced the findings, which factcheck, emphatically denies. Either that or find an error in their findings, sorry but it needs to be a real one with evidence, not just a brain fart or an unsubstantiated allegation from an unreliable source.
Yeah sure. The vaccine investors pay for the “service” out of the goodness in their hearts. Same as property developers give money to the LNP cause they are tragic fans of the democratic process. Are you the sort who firmly defends the altruism of property developers until there is hard evidence to make you suspect that perhaps their motives aren’t pure?
BB, I reckon it’s time to rethink your habit of employing your “Now settle down children” school marm manner that no one is going to assess your posts on their merit….or lack of. It’s not doing you any favours bloke.
The most impactful global event in modern history still has no comprehensive origin explanation. There has been concerted and sustained effort by compromised parties to derail and deceive the investigation. Why is this recent development not splashed across global headlines?
https://nypost.com/2021/10/01/calls-grow-for-ouster-of-wuhan-lab-tied-da...
Probably because it is totally irrelevant to the issue of the origin of the disease. As for the rest, I try to judge things on their merits. I do not have your complete distrust of human nature. In the case of vaccines the manufacturers had both a corporate and an altruistic reason to counter the wave of moronic anti-vax propaganda that was being used to undermine their products and public health. A wave which you have carried onto this site with a continuous outpouring of unsubstantiated bullshit dredged up from the sewers of the internet. Something of which, if you had a single decent bone in your body, you would be so ashamed of you would just fuck off and not come back.....but then where else would have you?
Name a single piece of unsubstantiated bullshit I have posted about the vaccines.
You think that the fellow who funded the development of bat virus to human infectiousness at the ground zero of the viral outbreak and who then lied, obfuscated, denied and proactively stymied any investigation into the viral origins is irrelevant to the origin of the virus? Geez….no one has ever accused you of being the smartest or most objective cookie, BB but surely even you can grasp that a determined opposition to the Lab origins theory by the person who is the pivotal instigator into the Wuhan research is so conflicted and untenable that even the 12 year old Labrador next door knows it’s a piss take?
Is the NY Post a credible news source?
I've created a spreadsheet forecast which I'll update as we go..
There's also a website with live running data.. https://sites.google.com/view/stayhomeaustralia