COVID-19 Health System Overload Forecaster

Craig's picture
Craig started the topic in Wednesday, 18 Mar 2020 at 7:44pm

I've created a spreadsheet forecast which I'll update as we go..

There's also a website with live running data.. https://sites.google.com/view/stayhomeaustralia

JQ's picture
JQ's picture
JQ Thursday, 30 Sep 2021 at 6:05pm
Blowin wrote:
velocityjohnno wrote:

I'm also hearing stories of people severely immunocompromised getting infected and being alright (of course, anecdotal, not completely representative) - and of successful use of monoclonal inhibitors in cytokine storm conditions, with a nod to UK learning last year.
Otherwise, workers I know are on edge. Riots in the city, huge police presence and earthquakes haven't helped.

VJ- 99.58% of all people live through Covid. That’s not just 99.58% of healthy people. I think the survival rate for Octogenarians is around 75%. That means that around 8 out of 10 super old, frail and vulnerable people survive.

Covid can be fatal. But it’s not as big a killer as diabetes or heart disease. It’s not even in the same conversation. You’ll be OK mate.

False equivalence, you can't catch diabetes or heart disease. For the majority of cases, those health issues are the result of personal decisions.

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Blowin Thursday, 30 Sep 2021 at 6:06pm

Because the data isn’t subjective.

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Blowin Thursday, 30 Sep 2021 at 6:10pm
JQ wrote:
Blowin wrote:
velocityjohnno wrote:

I'm also hearing stories of people severely immunocompromised getting infected and being alright (of course, anecdotal, not completely representative) - and of successful use of monoclonal inhibitors in cytokine storm conditions, with a nod to UK learning last year.
Otherwise, workers I know are on edge. Riots in the city, huge police presence and earthquakes haven't helped.

VJ- 99.58% of all people live through Covid. That’s not just 99.58% of healthy people. I think the survival rate for Octogenarians is around 75%. That means that around 8 out of 10 super old, frail and vulnerable people survive.

Covid can be fatal. But it’s not as big a killer as diabetes or heart disease. It’s not even in the same conversation. You’ll be OK mate.

False equivalence, you can't catch diabetes or heart disease. For the majority of cases, those health issues are the result of personal decisions.

No, but I’m sure that VJ has had his share of diabetes inducing white bread in his time. My point is that there is a infinite ways to die and Covid is just one way. Not even the most common or likely way to die even if a person takes every avoidable step in life.

It’s called perspective bloke. You should get some for yourself.

You’ll be OK, VJ. Stay healthy as possible and get vaccinated.

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JQ Thursday, 30 Sep 2021 at 6:09pm
Blowin wrote:

Because the data isn’t subjective.

So you jettison the part of your argument that the restrictions are some sort of end-of-days rise of authoritarianism then? As that part is entirely subjective.

And you accept the conclusions reached by the Doherty Institute also?

Blowin's picture
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Blowin Thursday, 30 Sep 2021 at 6:11pm

I think the authoritarianism is off the charts.

Curfews, bloke….really?

Hutchy 19's picture
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Hutchy 19 Thursday, 30 Sep 2021 at 6:17pm

VLocal - I hear you always putting Blowins figure of 99% plus down but have NEVER seen you write what you think the figure is .

You keep saying his figure is wrong . What is your view of the correct figure ?

Now don't tell me its too hard to work out , dependent upon start date or version of the disease . You have been commenting on this for months , looking at all the data and are a self confessed maths guru .

I really want to know !!!!!

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velocityjohnno Thursday, 30 Sep 2021 at 6:17pm

Thanks for the concern crew, I'm pretty sure I'll be OK if it comes around. I know a lot more about it now. Got the sourdough in the fridge Blowin :) Part way there with the vaccine Blowin, tbh if I wasn't in medical condition I am I would really be in two minds, but I went with what my Docs advised. Unfortunately, other things going on at present - what a time for them, too. I'll be alright.

This is probably in poor taste (I have worse in reserve), but some fun practical epidemiology for everyone to try at home. Probably swarming with cookies, but you have to take chances in life.

https://plagueincgame.com/plague-inc-2020/

I called mine 'AFL'. Doesn't seem too virulent so far.

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blindboy Thursday, 30 Sep 2021 at 6:27pm

Thanks for the support JQ but it just made me laugh how quickly he went into insult mode.

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Blowin Thursday, 30 Sep 2021 at 6:34pm

VJ….I’m just trying to keep it real. People are conditioned to believe that Covid is an unprecedented, existential threat. It’s not. I’ll guarantee that many of the doom prophesisers are sitting down to an unhealthy meal, a durry or a beer. They’d be living in cities surrounded by car exhaust* and toxins. Swallowing micro plastics and eating food drenched in pesticides.

Life is dangerous and every single minute people die from reasons that have nothing to do with this overhyped virus. Melbourne had had 55( ?) deaths from Covid this year and probably 30,000 deaths from other causes. Don’t swallow the hype.

Stay safe and chill. Stress kills more people than Covid.

* Remember when people lost their shit because 450K people died WITH Covid in India? Here’s some more perspective…
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/23/pollution-killed-nearly-17...

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Vic Local Thursday, 30 Sep 2021 at 6:35pm

"The question is why does Blowin feel he can cite their data, but reject their conclusion?"

Because blowin doesn't do science. He just holds a position based on self interest, and then goes resurching "facts" to support his me-first attitude, while vigorously disputing anything or anyone who holds a different position based on reliable evidence.
He has feelpinions that have absolutely nothing to do with science. He's Otto from "A fish called Wanda" without any of the language skills.

"VJ….I’m just trying to keep it real." Geez, where's that coffee spitting GIF when you need it.

Blowin's picture
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Blowin Thursday, 30 Sep 2021 at 6:36pm
blindboy wrote:

Thanks for the support JQ but it just made me laugh how quickly he went into insult mode.

I didn’t insult you. I presented facts. You love evidence….you got evidence.

BTW….passive aggressive gets you full points in my book anyway, bloke.

Blowin's picture
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Blowin Thursday, 30 Sep 2021 at 6:42pm
Vic Local wrote:

"The question is why does Blowin feel he can cite their data, but reject their conclusion?"

Because blowin doesn't do science. He just holds a position based on self interest, and then goes resurching "facts" to support his me-first attitude, while vigorously disputing anything or anyone who holds a different position based on reliable evidence.
He has feelpinions that have absolutely nothing to do with science. He's Otto from "A fish called Wanda" without any of the language skills.

"VJ….I’m just trying to keep it real." Geez, where's that coffee spitting GIF when you need it.

That’s just the fear talking bloke. You’ll be OK. Go have a lie down…. Under your bed if that’s where you feel safest.

Honest question: Are you irrationally afraid of everything or just Covid? Have you tried locking yourself and your wife inside the house to save her from car crash / lightning strike / being crushed by the last piece of Skylab? Do you yell at the neighbours and call them selfish, dopey pricks when you see them eating takeaway food which may result in clogged arteries and clogged hospitals?

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Constance B Gibson Thursday, 30 Sep 2021 at 6:43pm

"He has feelpinions that have absolutely nothing to do with science. He's Otto from "A fish called Wanda" without any of the language skills."

Hah!

I get a strong whiff of Alan Jones myself. But then Alan gets paid handsomely for his hysterical hyperbole.

What's Blowin's excuse?

Another champ for 'Struggle Street'?!

Parp!

Get a whiff of that perfume!

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velocityjohnno Thursday, 30 Sep 2021 at 6:45pm

Cheers Blowin, I will do exactly that, stay safe and chill. It's best to stress less.

Btw I try to see the best in everyone on these forums, all have great insights at times. I won't agree with everyone all the time, but most at some times. Other than that, I try to shock you all with gore links or stuff that hopefully causes a bit of wtf

Blowin's picture
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Blowin Thursday, 30 Sep 2021 at 6:47pm

Yep. There it is. That old Facto class condescension and revulsion.

Anything but struggle street.

You’re concerned about correct gender pronouns whilst being disgusted by the working class. The perfect example of the modern union apparatchik.

Could you be any more Fake Left, bloke?

Oh no….I’ve blown your cover. Consider it special Ed for your comrade with the investment property AirBnB.

Blowin's picture
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Blowin Thursday, 30 Sep 2021 at 6:46pm
velocityjohnno wrote:

Cheers Blowin, I will do exactly that, stay safe and chill. It's best to stress less.

Btw I try to see the best in everyone on these forums, all have great insights at times. I won't agree with everyone all the time, but most at some times. Other than that, I try to shock you all with gore links or stuff that hopefully causes a bit of wtf

You do you mate. That’s where the good stuff is.

Constance B Gibson's picture
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Constance B Gibson Thursday, 30 Sep 2021 at 6:49pm

Whilst one is on the bloke tip, so to speak...

There's nowt queer as folk, bloke.

Ever read Chuck Palahniuk's Choke, bloke?

Manicured ten tonnes of smoke, bloke?

Joke, bloke?

Lemme guess, for the last 18 months, constantly in fright you woke, bloke?

Blowin's picture
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Blowin Thursday, 30 Sep 2021 at 6:52pm

That “poem” is the high water mark of your personal creativity and originality.

You must be proud bloke.

I read choke bloke.

shoredump's picture
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shoredump Thursday, 30 Sep 2021 at 6:55pm

I’m with you Blowin, we shouldn’t use data from day 1 on disease we should use what is relevant now. If a newer more deadly variant arrives we should upgrade. If doctors learn how to treat a disease they should be acknowledged. Can you imagine using all data for smallpox, or our life expectancy?
I’m not expecting to die in my 40’s am I?
Carry on...

I focus's picture
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I focus Thursday, 30 Sep 2021 at 7:04pm

Anyone know what the current hospitalisation rate is in Oz?

PS Just worked it out 7%, 1 in 14 chance of going to hospital if you test positive... hmm.

JQ's picture
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JQ Thursday, 30 Sep 2021 at 6:55pm
shoredump wrote:

I’m with you Blowin, we shouldn’t use data from day 1 on disease we should use what is relevant now. If a newer more deadly variant arrives we should upgrade. Can you imagine using all data for smallpox, or our life expectancy?
I’m not expecting to die in my 40’s am I?
Carry on...

Why should the people who lost their lives last year be excluded shoredump? Were their lives not of value?

Current data is useful for deciding what to do now - and that is exactly what is happening.

Blowin's picture
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Blowin Thursday, 30 Sep 2021 at 6:57pm
shoredump wrote:

I’m with you Blowin, we shouldn’t use data from day 1 on disease we should use what is relevant now. Can you imagine using all data for smallpox, or our life expectancy?
Carry on...

It wasn’t my call. I was direct quoting the Australian authority. I do agree though.

No one counts cumulative deaths for the flu. Air pollution, homicide, car crash , heart disease and malaria deaths dont cease and recommence with the New Year but that’s how they are quantified. It’s an annual count. That doesn’t thrill the doom fetish crowd though does it?

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shoredump Thursday, 30 Sep 2021 at 6:57pm
JQ wrote:
shoredump wrote:

I’m with you Blowin, we shouldn’t use data from day 1 on disease we should use what is relevant now. If a newer more deadly variant arrives we should upgrade. Can you imagine using all data for smallpox, or our life expectancy?
I’m not expecting to die in my 40’s am I?
Carry on...

Why should the people who lost their lives last year be excluded shoredump? Were their lives not of value?

Current data is useful for deciding what to do now - and that is exactly what is happening.

I don’t understand why that diminishes their lives in your eyes JQ, it doesn’t to mine.
I just think we need to credit the doctors great work, they have reduced the death rate

Blowin's picture
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Blowin Thursday, 30 Sep 2021 at 6:58pm

It doesn’t diminish anyone’s death. That statement is so ridiculous that it’s attempt to use emotion to distort the debate is hilarious.

JQ's picture
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JQ Thursday, 30 Sep 2021 at 7:00pm

Guess it depends if you wanna carry on like a aggrieved twat or not really. Current data is valid for making decisions about what to do now (which as mentioned, is exactly what the gov is doing) for reflecting on the seriousness of the issue and making generalised statements, it's not fair to exclude a huge quantity of the data set.

Should we asses the seriousness of bubonic plague based on the fatality rate in the last 10 years?

JQ's picture
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JQ Thursday, 30 Sep 2021 at 7:01pm
Blowin wrote:

It doesn’t diminish anyone’s death. That statement is so ridiculous that it’s attempt to use emotion to distort the debate is hilarious.

Hypocrisy overload!

Constance B Gibson's picture
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Constance B Gibson Thursday, 30 Sep 2021 at 7:01pm

"That “poem” is the high water mark of your personal creativity and originality."

According to you.

Hah! How shall I put this? I reckon a pencil on a butcher shop's floor carries more weight.

Ever threatened violence online after too much booze and smoke, bloke?

And yet, here you are...still!

Bye bye.

Joke.

Blowin's picture
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Blowin Thursday, 30 Sep 2021 at 7:09pm

According to me?

Alright ….let’s do it according to you. Show me what you consider the creative high water mark of your many years contributing to these forums.

You’re always bragging about how easy stuff is to find on here with DuckDuckGo.

I am waiting with anticipation to see your creative impulse proudly on display.

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groundswell Thursday, 30 Sep 2021 at 8:14pm

edit, imgur wont post my image of two friends holding signs. One with im vaxed the other with im unvaxed but we are still friends etc.

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groundswell Thursday, 30 Sep 2021 at 8:16pm

What happens when pfizer jab and all the others wont beat all the new variants? I think if that happens humans are in for a shitty deal.

JQ's picture
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JQ Thursday, 30 Sep 2021 at 8:20pm
groundswell's picture
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groundswell Thursday, 30 Sep 2021 at 9:12pm

Thanks for the article JQ. so it doesnt look like its all doom and gloom thank jeebus.

Hutchy 19's picture
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Hutchy 19 Thursday, 30 Sep 2021 at 9:17pm

Vic Local - common please give us your number , what is the delay ? I can't believe you haven't worked it out !!!!!!!

Vic Local's picture
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Vic Local Thursday, 30 Sep 2021 at 9:56pm
Hutchy 19 wrote:

Vic Local - common please give us your number , what is the delay ? I can't believe you haven't worked it out !!!!!!!

I've put up the accurate death rate from covid at least 5 times already. Not my fault you can't or won't read them
FFS Hutchy, it's not hard. Total deaths divided by total cases. Works out to be approximately 1.24%
If you have a problem with that, I can't help you.

blindboy's picture
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blindboy Friday, 1 Oct 2021 at 7:27am
Hutchy 19's picture
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Hutchy 19 Friday, 1 Oct 2021 at 8:22am

VicLocal - don't get grumpy .You write hundreds of posts and I haven't read them all . How hard was it to put up that figure again .

You bitch and harass Blowin for his 99.5 % and your figure is 98.8 % .

If I studied hard for an exam I would not care which of those numbers I achieved . Both incredibly good !

So Covid survival rate is incredibly GOOD .

We have gone through hell , with lockdowns ( which don't work ) , pay Big Pharma Billions , lose Freedoms with governments mandating whatever they want , to combat a virus , that if you catch it , your survival is almost guaranteed .

I have also had to read all your bitching and bullying for almost nothing .

You will say lockdowns don't work because arseholes won't stay locked up . All over the world it happens as humans don't like being caged .

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brutus Friday, 1 Oct 2021 at 9:32am
blindboy wrote:

Another optimistic piece.
https://thebulletin.org/2021/09/how-to-crush-the-variants-that-have-kept...

more good news , we now have Portugal at 85% vaccination rates , to the point there are no adults left to vaccinate....great to see nearly 100% vaccination in the elderly....and some incredible news about herd immunity ...all run by a Naval Vice Admiral......the Portuguese actually followed what the scientists recommended.....and as close to a normal life that can be expected, is alive and well in Portugal.....
https://www.theage.com.au/world/europe/portugal-has-nearly-run-out-of-pe...

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Roadkill Friday, 1 Oct 2021 at 10:24am
Hutchy 19 wrote:

VicLocal - don't get grumpy .You write hundreds of posts and I haven't read them all . How hard was it to put up that figure again .

You bitch and harass Blowin for his 99.5 % and your figure is 98.8 % .

If I studied hard for an exam I would not care which of those numbers I achieved . Both incredibly good !

So Covid survival rate is incredibly GOOD .

We have gone through hell , with lockdowns ( which don't work ) , pay Big Pharma Billions , lose Freedoms with governments mandating whatever they want , to combat a virus , that if you catch it , your survival is almost guaranteed .

I have also had to read all your bitching and bullying for almost nothing .

You will say lockdowns don't work because arseholes won't stay locked up . All over the world it happens as humans don't like being caged .

This moron is hook, line and sinker a blowin sycophant..just regurgitating blowin's drivel now...I guess when 99% of the room think you an idiot, you have little else left than hanging with the other idiots. Lol.

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Roadkill Friday, 1 Oct 2021 at 10:27am

If my life depended on something, I would be happy to take 98.8 over 99.5 survival. Any normal person would.

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fitzroy-21 Friday, 1 Oct 2021 at 10:52am
Roadkill wrote:

This moron is hook, line and sinker a blowin sycophant..just regurgitating blowin's drivel now...I guess when 99% of the room think you an idiot, you have little else left than hanging with the other idiots. Lol.

I guess that could be likened to VL and your own cupping and lack of gag reflex technique...

And....

Roadkill "If my life depended on something, I would be happy to take 98.8 over 99.5 survival. Any normal person would."

W..T..F..? When it comes to your survival, you wouldn't take that extra .7%?

Roadkill's picture
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Roadkill Friday, 1 Oct 2021 at 11:08am
fitzroy-21 wrote:
Roadkill wrote:

This moron is hook, line and sinker a blowin sycophant..just regurgitating blowin's drivel now...I guess when 99% of the room think you an idiot, you have little else left than hanging with the other idiots. Lol.

I guess that could be likened to VL and your own cupping and lack of gag reflex technique...

And....

Roadkill "If my life depended on something, I would be happy to take 98.8 over 99.5 survival. Any normal person would."

W..T..F..? When it comes to your survival, you wouldn't take that extra .7%?

Well I wrote that wrong....

Any increase in survival is valid, as is any decrease in mortality rates equally valid.

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Hutchy 19 Friday, 1 Oct 2021 at 11:10am

Roadkill-"just regurgitating blowin's drivel now" . Not trying to play favourites .

I also regurgitated VicLocals drivel .

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Roadkill Friday, 1 Oct 2021 at 11:18am
Hutchy 19 wrote:

Roadkill-"just regurgitating blowin's drivel now" . Not trying to play favourites .

I also regurgitated VicLocals drivel .

Lol. That's pretty funny. 10/10 for that reply.

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sypkan Friday, 1 Oct 2021 at 12:23pm

"You bitch and harass Blowin for his 99.5 % and your figure is 98.8 % ."

hard to believe isn't it?

all that hostility and hysterics...

the constant harrassment and self adulation...

I really was hoping for a more significant outcome, you know a difference worth fighting over, something worth all the harassment and big noting...

but nah, splitting hairs over a non event...

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sypkan Friday, 1 Oct 2021 at 12:19pm

and in other great moments in vicvocal blatant bullshit and hyperbole...

' no one is talking about mandatory vaccines'

https://www.theage.com.au/national/australia-news-live-victoria-warned-o...

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blindboy Friday, 1 Oct 2021 at 12:38pm

Yeh JQ why worry about a tiny difference like 7-800 deaths. Harden up mate, we need more callous bastards.

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garyg1412 Friday, 1 Oct 2021 at 1:04pm
Hutchy 19 wrote:

You bitch and harass Blowin for his 99.5 % and your figure is 98.8 % .

If I studied hard for an exam I would not care which of those numbers I achieved . Both incredibly good !

Hutchy that exam wasn't mathematics was it?? The difference between those two numbers is about 175,000 human beings. That's like the whole of Hobart's population 6 feet under. Just saying!!

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Hutchy 19 Friday, 1 Oct 2021 at 1:32pm

No Gary and I have never got a 99% in anything and never aspired to .

In the world it is probably 1000 times your figure and in my suburb maybe 17 . Just saying . Every dealth is tragic . If we tallied up the road deaths and suicide deaths that might also be 1% .

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Hutchy 19 Friday, 1 Oct 2021 at 1:35pm

No Gary and I have never got a 99% in anything and never aspired to .

I think your numbers could be out . .7% of covid deaths equaling 175000 ? Sounds way too high .Calling VicLocal to check !!!!

In the world it is probably 1000 times your figure and in my suburb maybe 17 . Just saying . Every dealth is tragic . If we tallied up the road deaths and suicide deaths that might also be 1% .

Hutchy 19's picture
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Hutchy 19 Friday, 1 Oct 2021 at 2:29pm

Gary . Blindboy had the below figure on another thread . He is not very smart so don't take it as gospel .

My response is also shown and this exchange should be on this thread .

BB - "7-800 extra deaths. Go the callous bastards! We can win this one."

You are a big DH BB !!!!!

You might think you can win this one . You have lost re the Fed shareholders and maybe your ego needs a boost .

To me this is not about winning or losing . I was pointing out that both a 98.8% and 99.5% survival rate from Covid were BOTH very good .

The costs of lockdowns are VERY high . Economically and socially with mental issues going through the roof .

I believe there are no winners . I hope we can work out the best way to minimalize the loses .