COVID-19 Health System Overload Forecaster

Craig's picture
Craig started the topic in Wednesday, 18 Mar 2020 at 7:44pm

I've created a spreadsheet forecast which I'll update as we go..

There's also a website with live running data.. https://sites.google.com/view/stayhomeaustralia

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno Tuesday, 10 Aug 2021 at 5:59pm

Anonymous Western Sydney respiratory physician opinion piece:

https://www.theage.com.au/national/nsw-is-almost-certainly-on-the-precip...

saltyone's picture
saltyone's picture
saltyone Thursday, 19 Aug 2021 at 3:54pm

truebluebasher's picture
truebluebasher's picture
truebluebasher Wednesday, 1 Sep 2021 at 2:04pm

Deadline Timetable exclusive to #1 swellnet

( Part 1 ) Flu vs Covid History & Stats

2009 Rhinovirus delayed the onset of 'Swine Flu'
WHO : Flu infects 1 billion/year > 3-5m severe cases > 650,000 deaths/year...Vax > 40-(70% Seniors)
Covid infects 215 million/year > 500,000 severe cases > 3.5million deaths/year (Vax 70% 1/2 doses)

Flu is more infectious but Covid is more deadly.

Early 2020 the first o/s Covid case was also diagnosed with the Flu.

April - UK Study revealed dual Virus sufferers were 2x likely to die.

May - Study revealed that Dual Virus infected people present Asymptomatic [-] Test results.
Meaning both viruses can cohabit a body by lying dormant...

Importantly!
This was less so the Viral preference but more so each Human's immune system response
Immune system fights None / One / Both ( Each of us mount a different response ) Under investigation.
Longer Dual incubation is more likely to damage the lungs & allow bacteria in, resulting in a horrid death.

Which virus is stronger & most likely to dominate!
Flu has a long history & dominates Covid...(Note: Covid presents more but is less Dominant > Part 2)
Flu triggers your Immune System to prevent or delay Covid onset.
Flu is still by far the best defence at warding off Covid as Flu dominates innate ( Nasal Cavity defence)

However! Flu incubation has a shorter life of 1-5 days.
Covid incubates for 1-2 weeks & therefore uses the Flu to mask early incubation before symptoms.
Again! Depends on each immune system as to whether Flu immunity knocks out Covid or delays it.
Latest science sees a shift of Vax towards this short term innate Nasal spray as a 2 prong defence.
Many argue the Covid infection also equips survivors with similar innate nasal defence...(Vax lacks this!)

eg: Best line of full frontal Defence Order...
Flu Virus > Covid Virus > Flu Vax Nasal Spray > Covid Vax Nasal Spray > Flu Jab > Covid Jab.

Covid Jab protects from within from cells outward & was never designed to prevent infection or Spread.
Covid Jab lowers immunity 2-8x during incubation & can spread viral load up to 95% more by Sneezing.
recap: Covid is way more deadly than Flu so Warp Speed Vax selfishly prevents post infected death.
Viral load reduction or re/ Infection was shelved & Trials ignored...Quote "A job for 2nd Gen Vax."
Rolling Trials ploughed over these vital devastating repercussions.

Ignoring the high Vax reinfection > Vax ramps Covid to now mount a challenge on the seasonal Flu.
As WR Rollout descends by Age Bracket we see the next VOC attack speeds with youthful hunger.
75 years of Antibiotic resistance fast tracked to fit MTV Live Aid Concert Model...{Supermodel sues tbb!}

Each younger Rollout Phase outbreak demands each new Lockdown to be stricter / longer.
Vax Rollout hastens into youthful numbers ramping more wildly infectious Youthful Herd.
Each evermore stricter Longer lasting Lockdowns ramps Covid while starving infectious Flu.
Ok! So no one feels sorry for The Flu...we all get that!

Rollout Lockdown by decling age curbs our more infectious Old school Flu Virus speedy advantage.
Herd Covid Rollout reinfection is prioritised by MSM / Experts / Pollies.
Each Rollout Phase Mutates Covid to (First) better overpower the Flu ( Earth's best Covid defence)
If Rollout / Vax Lockdowns / Restrictions continue then Covid wipes out Flu = 1b cases / year.
That's 4x the Covid we got now for each'n'every year...

Exactly : Experts knew that the Flu Virus was our # 1 Covid defence...so why are Rollouts Killing it?
With the Flu we're dead ducks...Without the Flu bullying Covid we're quite simply gonna die faster.

Ok! tbb thought that was pretty dire so thought to dig deeper & find away around World impasse.
Share a more happy ending...
Deadline Timetable for { Gold Pass } VIPs ( Part 2 )

truebluebasher's picture
truebluebasher's picture
truebluebasher Wednesday, 1 Sep 2021 at 2:19pm

Deadline Timetable exclusive to #1 swellnet
(Part 2) Post Rollout + Timetable

Covid Vax Rollout comes at the cost of Flu Vaccine Rollout. ( Not uniform as some regions hold up!)
Oz Vax is down 25% but, highest Flu Vaxed NSW / Vic are spreading High Covid.
Reasons could be a slow start > dual Vax Aged Care > Ramping Flu Vax @ Covid Vax Peak.
eg: NSW Premier " Warning! Keep clear of GP / Chemists"
Record number 4-5m Queue Testing > GP (i) > Covid Vax 1 > FX Chem > Flu Vax > Covid Vax 2 > FX
Govt Order : Flu Vax (vs) Covid Vax ? 2 in one Jab Age Care or Wait 1 week / 2 week (Who cares?)

Note: Very few Nations have reliable Flu / Flu Vax / Covid / Covid / Vax Data...(In fact much is corrupted)
Which makes a Timetable almost impossible to research let alone table...(see below)
You don't wanna know how many tables tbb ran to unearth these seasonal patterns...

During slow spots of reduced Vax in Rollouts ...Cases of the Flu moved back in fast...(US noted this!)
Soon as Vax ramped Flu was overtaken by Delta...
Now with UK freedom the Kidz Flu wasted no time running rampant.

Who would waste time on an Oz Flu map pinpointing Cough / Flu symptoms in laziest of Flu years!
Well! Only the smartest person of all Obviously...How so tbb?
Wot was off the charts > Hot Spots Sydney / Melbourne / ACT had 'zero' Flu Hot Spots > WTF?
Least vaxed Regions were pulling in the Flu Hits to the detriment of Covid cases...poor Covid!

Pause!

tbb explained Flu was the dominant virus...but how! Expert Rollouts actually wiped it off the Map! Yep!
This is where the real Data research kicks in...that is Gold Dust!

If Flu is dominant then Flu season hasn't changed it's simply digging in to buy it's time.
Sure! The flu charts look blank empty & flat...
This is because VIP Covid is a tourist & prefers to Holiday at VIP resorts at Festive Season...
But Flu is bossing Covid & refuses to allow Covid to book a room outside of Holidays.
For those that look past trendy Covid they'll note that The Flu is still bossing & refuses to budge.

Wotz up! Flu is running it's Cycle but recouping well enough to overpower Covid
Not reported widely is Flu seems to be less infectious by incubating longer.
No longer 5 days or 2 weeks but Flu flattens out to 4-6 weeks.(tbb / bro had recent bouts of the same)
It only records the once but is more slowly incubating in a Host rather than fast jumping between hosts.
You could say both Viruses have flipped Covid = Fast -days (vs) Flu = Slow-Weeks.(Opposite to day one.)
The longer & flatter the Flu period results in sharper equally fuelled Covid Spike of cases.
We just see a calm flat sea of Flu with Towers of Covid but they are spread to offset one another. (Tricky!)

The fact that each have allocated their seasonal preference then affords virus predictability by region.
Nations hook up by timing their Viral Deadlines....little by little until Flu returns to boss the World.
World Experts are running 6 months behind swellnet time...don't share tbb said any of this. Knock Knock!

If we are to believe Flu is dominant then that works in Human's favour to better predict Covid timelines!
In otherwords... each Nation can now predict their Next Covid outbreak by accurate size & duration.
All thanks to our Old School stubborn Bully Flu Virus...can even pre allocate VIP #1 Mask Free Windows.

Knowing these secrets affords Safe transit windows of World Travel / Free Time / Lockdown Seasons.
tbb has run a few Regional models but also glanced at others... (One problem!)
The models are only as good as Data readouts...only more open / honest nations can adapt Covid table.
Important Warning that anyone censoring Data is condemning a free open World to hidden dangers.

tbb is not getting into Vax Pass argument other than saying it rates low in safety of World Travel.
Not Vax Not Gold Card Not Covid but Flu decides when & where to travel...We can lock it in!

World Exclusive 1st Deadline Timetable

Northern Hemisphere Entry to Oz
Danger arrival Periods
1. Easter 2. Xmas / NYE / 3. Mid Winter
Important Notes
Hot Hotels re: o/s infection Timetable (Mostly travellers import Covid)
Hot Camps re: Oz infection Timetable (Mostly staff import Covid)

Safe o/s Low Covid - High Flu Window > (Health / Nurses / Students require Flu Vaxes)
1.Mid Feb Back2School-Work 2. Early Aug

Oz Covid Domestic Danger Season (All States)
Oz/NZ 1. Easter 2. Xmas-NYE 3. Mid Aug-Spring Break

High Flu = Low Covid Season ( Interstate Travel Window)
OZ 1. Mid-Late Feb > 2. Mid June > 3. wk1 Nov
NZ 1. wk1 March > 2. wk1 July > 3. wk2 Dec

Ditch Bubble Wrap ( Safest 'cross nation' links )
1. Feb/March > 2. June/July > 3. ( Nov-Dec Warning!) Check individual States!

Premium VIP { Platinum -Mile High Club Card } Not for Us!
Near Zero Flu-Covid Hubble Bubble Window...Almost a Mask free Business Class Option.
Oz Mid April < > NZ wk 1/2 May = April-May ( Ditch CEOs > Peace Talks etc...)

Other Oz Air bridge Samples..
Singapore { VIP Tour Card } (End Aug)
USA {VIP Tour Card } ( Mid June )

Crew know that this Timetable will soon be common place...
Happy to share as it gives the crew equal chance at a sniff of a { Gold Card }

For Personal Tour intinerary ...
1. Check Flu 2. Covid Case Peaks / Troughs 3. Check for Neutral Window 4. Oz Windows for return
Note the Viruses only ever afford 1-2 week windows.
Many Flu stats go back 5 years & Covid is Almost 2 years so you narrow down the margins of error.
Crew should end up with the same windows of 1-2 weeks. (If data is not corrupted)
Note 1st Large Vax/Covid Spike did corrupt during Battle of viruses before seasonal order set in.
Just saying you may find a tighter line of Days rather than Weeks on first crossover virus time share.

Huge thanx to Covid -19 Health System Overload Forecaster.

Constance B Gibson's picture
Constance B Gibson's picture
Constance B Gibson Friday, 10 Sep 2021 at 4:38pm

What does “living with Covid” look like?

For a preview of where Australia is heading, take a look at Boris Johnson’s Britain. Johnson declared “freedom day” on July 19, with a similar level of vaccination to what NSW will achieve in mid October. At that time, the UK was seeing 42 Covid deaths every day. After two months of “freedom”, that figure is 134 dead. Every. Single. Day. Right now there are more than 1,000 Covid patients on ventilator beds in UK hospitals. That’s around a third of Britain’s pre-Covid Intensive Care capacity.

This figure will keep rising, especially as the summer holidays end and schools return, packed full of unvaccinated students. The UK government is reported to be developing plans for further lockdowns. So much for “freedom”. This is the “new normal” of death and long term ill health that we are meant to be “living with” – forever.

It’s a similar picture in Israel, one of the most vaccinated societies on Earth. The ABC reports:

Just a few months ago, Israel was the picture of COVID-19 vaccination success…
But the celebrations — and optimism that herd immunity had arrived — didn't last long.
By late June, case numbers began to climb, and they haven't stopped....
Rates of hospitalisations and ICU admissions are also increasing, with almost 1,100 people currently in hospital and nearly 700 considered "seriously ill".
Israel recently recorded the highest seven-day rolling average of COVID-19 cases per million people of any country in the world.

With a population about 10% more than NSW, Israel is regularly reporting more than 25 Covid deaths per day, as a permanent state of affairs. Is this a vision of “freedom” we should be embracing?
Politicians and the business elite are selling us “living with covid” as if it’s putting death and ill health behind us. They’re lying. Their “living with Covid” is just a way of prioritising corporate “business as usual” over human life and health.

Which is exactly what Berijiklian is planning for NSW, brushing aside public health advice. Today’s Fairfax/Nine papers quote Stephen Duckett of the Grattan Institute:

one person’s freedom is another person’s going to hospital. This plan was developed by business for business. They said right up front ‘the Deputy Premier has worked with industry to develop this road map… It is an extremely risky strategy which guarantees an increase in the number of cases and the number of hospitalisations. The question is how NSW Health will cope in this environment.

Of course, NSW Health is not coping.

What about the kids?

Dr Mark Duncan-Smith is the President of the WA branch of the AMA. He states:

As President of AMAWA, I have significant concerns regarding the welfare of our children based on the plan to reduce restrictions predicted on 70 or 80 % of adults being vaccinated. The Office of National Statistics in the UK based on NHS data has shown that 7.4 % of children that get COVID, get long COVID.
The Doherty Report data (table 5.6, page 20) show that if reduced suppression measures of COVID were undertaken at 80 % of adults and no children vaccinated as modelled , there would be on average in the first 6 months in the paediatric population (less than 16 yrs):
• 57 deaths
• 206 ICU admissions
• 276, 506 symptomatic cases

Applying the 7.4 % to the 276, 506 cases modelled by Doherty, there would be approximately 20,000 cases of long COVID in our children in the first 6 months.

Applying the 7.4 % to the 5 million children in Australia, there would be potentially 370,000 cases of long COVID in our children eventually.

“Living with Covid” is living with a huge level of ill health.

But is elimination a viable strategy?

Yep. And you don’t have to take just our word for it.

A group of 70 prominent epidemiologists, doctors, scientists and public health professionals have recently formed OzSAGE. This is an Australian equivalent of the UK group “Independent SAGE”, which has consistently critiqued the murderous public health priorities of Boris Johnson throughout the pandemic.

We’re not pretending that every word written by every member of this group is holy scripture, far from it. But people like Raina Macintyre, Greg Kelly, Andrew Miller and Zoe Hyde have had a consistent approach of prioritising public health throughout the pandemic. So it’s of interest that OzSage argue for an elimination strategy:

“Elimination” does not mean outbreaks of COVID-19 will never occur; it means that sustained, ongoing outbreaks with high rates of illness and death can be prevented. We have achieved elimination of measles and polio through vaccination in Australia, but still have occasional outbreaks of measles.

OzSAGE calls their strategy to achieve this state of affairs “Vaccines Plus” – where very high vaccination rates are part of a suite of measures (including ventilation of schools, workplaces etc; masks; spacing; effective testing and tracing; and a significantly expanded health systems) with the aim of ensuring that any outbreaks are quickly extinguished.

For a case study of a society rapidly increasing vaccination while they use effective lockdowns to achieve zero community spread, we only have to look across the ditch. Although New Zealand’s biggest city remains in lockdown, most of the country is loosening restrictions and the trend is towards zero cases.
This is not magic. The NZ government set an aim of elimination, and implemented lockdowns and social supports strong enough to achieve it – neither of which are now being done in NSW or Victoria. Taiwan recently got back to zero cases. Even Queensland’s rickety public health defences have so far fended off the threat of Delta, despite sharing a long and porous border with NSW.

The disaster in NSW is the result of appalling government policy, not some inherent problem with achieving zero community spread of Delta.

Is pursuing elimination going to be worse than “living with Covid”?

We’ve seen a few assertions that pursuing elimination necessarily leads to authoritarianism, isolationism, and agony for the working class.

Um, no.

The experience of the past 18 months shows that people in New Zealand, with one of the most aggressive strategies for suppressing the virus, have enjoyed much higher levels of everyday freedoms than elsewhere. Given the disastrous reality of attempts to “live with the virus” detailed above, with the UK and Israel either considering or implementing new restrictions after a few brutal months of “freedom”, this trend looks likely to continue.

Of course it’s true that you can’t police your way out of a pandemic. It’s also true that, as Australia’s most famous epidemiologist Bill Bowtell states, the best vaccine is money – paying people to stay home to limit the circulation of the virus when that’s needed. And it's also true that international travel could be significantly and safely increased if federal and state governments had spent the past 18 months building quarantine facilities like those in Howard Springs, rather than shovelling cash at billionaires. Gina Rinehart’s increased wealth in 2020 could have employed an extra 250,000 emergency care nurses, according to the Saturday Paper.

We don’t think it’s rocket science to demand all these things, while advocating elimination as a strategy, rather than surrendering to a level of death and ill health that will further brutalise Australian society.
What about mental health? Lockdowns, especially when not reinforced by sufficient financial support, can be stressful. But effective measures can make lockdowns shorter, take us more quickly down to zero Covid when lockdowns can be lifted, and avoid the massive stress of dying, long Covid, and seeing your friends, loved-ones and others die and suffer.

Source: some anonymous academic epistemophiliacs

bonza's picture
bonza's picture
bonza Friday, 10 Sep 2021 at 6:07pm

Paging short. Paging short.

Hutchy 19's picture
Hutchy 19's picture
Hutchy 19 Friday, 10 Sep 2021 at 6:13pm

Conny - your whole article is put into question due to ONE statement in the article .

"Just a few months ago, Israel was the picture of COVID-19 vaccination success…"

Israel and all other countries were not vaxed for Covid 19 .

All the vaccines were developed for the preceding stains !!!!!!

The article proves that the current vaccines have hugely undelivered . People were hoping that they would stop them getting covid ( completely false ) and spreading covid ( to their kids ) .

Now they are being told they will need booster shots for 19 ( and probably all the other new variants )

Luckily you cut and pasted the article ( I know because it was easy to understand ) otherwise it would have been a waste of a lot of your time .

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot Friday, 10 Sep 2021 at 8:26pm

preceding stain

seaslug's picture
seaslug's picture
seaslug Friday, 10 Sep 2021 at 8:35pm

I have stains GF, normally known as skiddy's

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot Friday, 10 Sep 2021 at 8:59pm

yes slugga i believe they are the pro-ceding stains

seaslug's picture
seaslug's picture
seaslug Friday, 10 Sep 2021 at 9:29pm

hehe

Constance B Gibson's picture
Constance B Gibson's picture
Constance B Gibson Wednesday, 15 Sep 2021 at 5:56pm

This worm's not for turning (with the slightest of nods to ivermectin)?

https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2021/09/15/craig-kelly-tga-lawsuit-texts...

Constance B Gibson's picture
Constance B Gibson's picture
Constance B Gibson Thursday, 16 Sep 2021 at 11:58am

long COVID

san Guine's picture
san Guine's picture
san Guine Thursday, 30 Sep 2021 at 9:14am

"The rising case numbers are in line with projections for the months ahead, with new infections and hospitalisations still about a month away from their expected peak."

So not looking forward to the next couple of months at work...

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-09-30/victoria-records-new-covid-cases-...

synchrodogcal's picture
synchrodogcal's picture
synchrodogcal Thursday, 30 Sep 2021 at 11:12am

godspeed s.g, i can't even begin to fathom the shitstorm you are about to sail into

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Thursday, 30 Sep 2021 at 11:16am

Yeah, all the best SG, thanks again and also in advance. This goes to all the health workers.

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin Thursday, 30 Sep 2021 at 11:19am

More CSSC stuff.

Covid deaths are the only ones that matter. This is obvious when confronting the new religion of Wuflu Mortality. It’s a new spiritual movement built on the belief that the only deaths and illness which matter are those resulting from Covid. These deaths are sacrosanct and not to ever be mingled amongst other, less important deaths.

Here’s a record of the excess mortality rates for Australia 2021 year to date. If you look closely you will discover quite a few excess deaths above the average for the first half of the year. No one cares about these deaths because they had nothing to do with Covid as Australia only suffered one Covid death in the first half of the year.

Sure, the deaths might have related to the world beating Covid authoritarianism Australia has imposed, in the form of suicides, ODs, untreated disease etc but this doesn’t matter. Only Covid matters.

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin Thursday, 30 Sep 2021 at 11:29am

All life on Earth must exist around the religious imperative to avoid any death from Covid. Nothing else matters. Not human development, not interpersonal relationships, not love, not happiness, not fulfilment, not freedom to live.

Nothing matters but preventing a single Covid death.

A single Covid death has impact and consequences beyond any amount of other mortality. Only a blasphemer would question whether a world without Covid deaths is a fair swap for everything else of worth in life. Blasphemers must be ostracised from society. Their poisonous thoughts are an affront to the God of Covid.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Thursday, 30 Sep 2021 at 11:30am

Again, the deaths isn't the issue.

Check the title of this thread, from 1.5 years ago. Health system overload forecaster, that's the main issue.

In any case it's good to see NSW holding up nicely so far and the vaccines taking a bit of heat off them. Once we're all free to run around in a few weeks they'll be put to the test but hopefully all is good to go and we move on from these tough times.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Thursday, 30 Sep 2021 at 11:32am

Also how about chucking a donation into our Lifeline Classic team, need to push it out of the devils numbers ;p And every dollar helps. Thanks.

https://lifelinenb.grassrootz.com/lifeline-classic-2021/swellnet

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin Thursday, 30 Sep 2021 at 11:40am

“We’ve seen a few assertions that pursuing elimination necessarily leads to authoritarianism, isolationism, and agony for the working class.

Um, no“



Hutchy 19's picture
Hutchy 19's picture
Hutchy 19 Thursday, 30 Sep 2021 at 3:39pm

It is without doubt that the survival rate from covid is high . Probably thanks to the wonderful work our health workers do . If it is 99.5% as Blowin says or 99% does it really matter .

What amazes me is what the US is doing to its health workers regarding mandating a vax . The below comment made me think .

"If this was a REAL health risk, hospitals would NOT be firing people who refuse to vaccinate. Only a moron would fire 46% of the military for not taking a vaccine. That would be the perfect time for war.

This COVID virus has a death ratio of less than 1%. In China right now there is another appearance of H5N6 bird flu, which has a death ratio of 60% more like a plague. It seems to be contained for now. If we were dealing with something of this nature, I would agree with getting a vaccine. But this is not the case."

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin Thursday, 30 Sep 2021 at 3:44pm

Oddly enough, it was Nicky Minaj who said it best.

Something along the lines of “ It’s not about public health, if the US honestly have a fuck about public health there would be public healthcare.”

Hard to argue with that statement.

Hiccups's picture
Hiccups's picture
Hiccups Thursday, 30 Sep 2021 at 3:54pm
Blowin wrote:

Oddly enough, it was Nicky Minaj who said it best.

Something along the lines of “ It’s not about public health, if the US honestly have a fuck about public health there would be public healthcare.”

Hard to argue with that statement.

I believe she said it best when she tweeted this.

"My cousin in Trinidad won’t get the vaccine cuz his friend got it & became impotent. His testicles became swollen. His friend was weeks away from getting married, now the girl called off the wedding."

blindboy's picture
blindboy's picture
blindboy Thursday, 30 Sep 2021 at 4:09pm

Fact Check:

" Most people who get COVID-19 will survive. Of roughly 35.2 million confirmed COVID-19 cases in the United States, around 614,300 people, or 1.7%, have died, according to Johns Hopkins University’s mortality data as of Aug 6".
https://www.poynter.org/fact-checking/2021/why-the-covid-19-survival-rat...

or we could go with the WHO. Australian data
100,912 cases. 1256 deaths. = 1.2%

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin Thursday, 30 Sep 2021 at 4:33pm

Fact Check

Luckily for us the Australian authorities on Covid retain enough sense in the matter to not base current infection fatality rates on numbers from early in the situation as due to improvements in treatment they are now completely irrelevant.

2021 Australian case fatality rate is 0.42%. A 99.58% survival rate. Mortality is heavily, heavily skewed towards older( >70 yrs) demographic. Mortality amongst young cohort is extremely rare.

https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/covid-19-will-remain-a-fire-foug...

“Last year, roughly one in every 31 patients with COVID-19 died, with 909 deaths from 28,428 cases or a case fatality rate of 3.2 per cent. This year to September 15, about one in every 234 patients died, with 229 deaths from 53,780 cases or a case fatality rate of 0.42 per cent.

That rate of deaths is comparable to the worst influenza season in the past few years. From January 1 to September 16, 2017, about one in every 210 flu patients died. There were 959 deaths from 201,446 confirmed cases of the flu or a case fatality rate of 0.48 per cent over the period. The five-year average fatality rate for the flu from January 1 to September 16, 2015 to 2019 was 0.34 per cent.“

blindboy's picture
blindboy's picture
blindboy Thursday, 30 Sep 2021 at 4:56pm

Fact Check:
From the source provided.

Total deaths 1138. Total cases 82,208. = 1.4%

Removing the 2020 data, which was provided in the source quoted, is misleading and likely to discourage vaccination by suggesting the disease is less serious than it is.

Verdict: Misleading.

JQ's picture
JQ's picture
JQ Thursday, 30 Sep 2021 at 5:01pm

You do realise the whole plan, all along has broadly been to get as many people vaccinated as possible - which will lower the mortality rate (as borne out by the statistics) and then remove the infection control measures.

As is mentioned in the title of thread and multiple times throughout it, a major concern is the overloading of the health system, which will happen is restrictions are loosened too early. It happened in plenty of places overseas, they've had lots of issues with this in the US.

Have you ever thought about just having a bit of rational thought about the issue, rather than just getting fired up and angry?

JQ's picture
JQ's picture
JQ Thursday, 30 Sep 2021 at 5:03pm
blindboy wrote:

Fact Check:
From the source provided.

Total deaths 1138. Total cases 82,208. = 1.4%

Removing the 2020 data, which was provided in the source quoted, is misleading and likely to discourage vaccination by suggesting the disease is less serious than it is.

Verdict: Misleading.

The selective exclusion of data sets is vital to the argument blind boy. You will notice this as a consistent pattern.

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno Thursday, 30 Sep 2021 at 5:12pm

Gennnnerally staying out of all this, and it's a shite situation in NSW and moreso Vic at present, but I take heart at Chris Billington's projections because these waves will eventually be over (for a period of time)

https://chrisbillington.net/COVID_VIC_2021.html

With Vic, as with NSW before it, the coloured bit of the chart you want to watch is that blue bit, the Reff, once it starts heading downward things will improve, even if the numbers will look terrible for a while.

https://chrisbillington.net/COVID_NSW.html

NSW looking pretty good tbh, they were right as much as I dislike their decision. Typical of Melbourne-Sydney rivalry, Melbourne is about to try to one-up their arch rivals once more. If only it wasn't such a dubious prize.

brutus's picture
brutus's picture
brutus Thursday, 30 Sep 2021 at 5:20pm

Blowin wrote:
That accurate 99.58% survival rate is a direct quote from Dr Michael Lydeamore, a research fellow in infectious diseases at Monash University.

Facts matter bloke.

blowin , the 2021 figure you quote , were till when...July/August or September with about 10 people now dying a day and very few in the fist 1/2 of the year your figure now would be more, so for 2020-21 the actual figure is 1.2%
the reason we had such a low figure in the first 6 mths , was there was not the Delta variant , now as we have all seen , what worked for stopping and slowing Covid last year and for the first 6 mths of this year ...does not work anywhere near as well with the Delta variant .
We are about to see how in the next few weeks to mths , the strain on the health workers and system...so far looking pretty wobbly but we have just started.....
What I don't understand is why all the anti-vaxxers are so aggro about their opinions?. I mean attacking health care workers should be an automatic jail sentence .......FFS if you don't want to get vaccinated fine....but you are making a choice which is the freedom demanded from the AV's....but as the majority rules...and 90% of Australians are getting vaccinated , it seems to me that rules and regulations have been introduced for the good of all...

blindboy's picture
blindboy's picture
blindboy Thursday, 30 Sep 2021 at 5:35pm

brutus my daughter is in charge of triage at a major Sydney hospital and has been over worked and stressed for some time now with worse to come. The vast majority of the serious cases which cause the increased workload and stress are unvaccinated. It is one thing to place yourself at risk but entirely another to cause the burden that our paramedics, nurses and doctors are carrying. Selfish isn't even in the ballpark.

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin Thursday, 30 Sep 2021 at 5:41pm

“Removing the 2020 data, which was provided in the source quoted, is misleading and likely to discourage vaccination by suggesting the disease is less serious than it is.”

Lol

Forgive me if I prefer to base decisions on my own opinions as opposed to that of a retired schoolteacher. You’re not on Twitter bloke.

Supafreak's picture
Supafreak's picture
Supafreak Thursday, 30 Sep 2021 at 5:41pm

40-B72-C7-E-6-A24-484-D-AD44-B22-D7986-EA02

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local Thursday, 30 Sep 2021 at 5:44pm

Hey BB, Send on my thanks to your daughter. You should be proud of her. I'd love to see Australia Day replaced with a new public holiday on Jan 27 that celebrates emergency service workers and volunteers.
Wow supafreak, that's next level stupidity even for you.

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno Thursday, 30 Sep 2021 at 5:45pm

Yep, send thanks from here too BB. That's a very pressured situation, respect. They are legends and have saved me on occasion.

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin Thursday, 30 Sep 2021 at 5:47pm

“blowin , the 2021 figure you quote , were till when...July/August or September with about 10 people now dying a day and very few in the fist 1/2 of the year your figure now would be more, so for 2020-21 the actual figure is 1.2%
the reason we had such a low figure in the first 6 mths , was there was not the Delta variant , now as we have all seen , what worked for stopping and slowing Covid last year and for the first 6 mths of this year ...does not work anywhere near as well with the Delta variant .“

Brutus, the figure is from a week or so ago and it’s a percentage. Percentages don’t vary on the volume of the figures being assessed. I know you really, really want me to say that I’m wrong and that in 2021 the case fatality rate in Australia is somewhere north of 80%, but that’s not true mate.

The case fatality rate in Australia for 2021 is 0.42%.

The only reason it was so high last year was because Dictator Dan injected the virus directly into the aged care where the people are most vulnerable. If Dictator Dan had seeded the virus into a primary school the case fatality rate for 2020 would have been around 0.0001%.

Facts.

blindboy's picture
blindboy's picture
blindboy Thursday, 30 Sep 2021 at 5:48pm

I will pass those thanks on. Normal times are stressful enough some of the stories are hair raising.

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin Thursday, 30 Sep 2021 at 5:50pm

Agree, Blindboy. Your daughter is in an admirable line of work. Still doesn’t mean that Covid is anywhere near as universally devastating as the media would have us believe.

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin Thursday, 30 Sep 2021 at 5:52pm
Supafreak wrote:

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-09-28/7-per-cent-of-health-workers-in-n...

They’re obviously right wing nut job Nazi uneducated scum. Vic Local knows that as fact. They are still think Trump won the election!

blindboy's picture
blindboy's picture
blindboy Thursday, 30 Sep 2021 at 5:55pm

Ha ha a retired school teacher with a science degree and 20 years teaching senior Biology including an Epidemiology unit and with a highly qualified daughter in the frontline checking in regularly to debrief.

But yeh I'll go back to ignoring your sad and pathetic bullshit. There are plenty of others who have your measure..

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno Thursday, 30 Sep 2021 at 5:54pm

I'm also hearing stories of people severely immunocompromised getting infected and being alright (of course, anecdotal, not completely representative) - and of successful use of monoclonal inhibitors in cytokine storm conditions, with a nod to UK learning last year.
Otherwise, workers I know are on edge. Riots in the city, huge police presence and earthquakes haven't helped.

Supafreak's picture
Supafreak's picture
Supafreak Thursday, 30 Sep 2021 at 5:54pm
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local Thursday, 30 Sep 2021 at 5:55pm

"The case fatality rate in Australia for 2021 is 0.42%."
Oh FFS blowin you are a genuine idiot.
Brutus explained to you very clearly why that figure is wrong. It was taken pre Delta and before this last big wave.
That figure that you cherry picked was taken mid year at the absolute best of times. Since things went pear shaped, it's out of date you absolute moron.

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin Thursday, 30 Sep 2021 at 5:56pm
blindboy wrote:

Ha ha a retired school teacher with a science degree and 20 years teaching senior Biology including an Epidemiology unit and with a highly qualified daughter in the frontline checking in regularly to debrief.

I think you’re forgetting that I’ve met science teachers bloke. Universally respect worthy they are not. Inherently intelligent they are not. Teaching a couple of periods of the utter basics of epidemiology to 13 year olds does not make you an epidemiologist.

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local Thursday, 30 Sep 2021 at 5:59pm
Blowin wrote:
blindboy wrote:

Ha ha a retired school teacher with a science degree and 20 years teaching senior Biology including an Epidemiology unit and with a highly qualified daughter in the frontline checking in regularly to debrief.

I think you’re forgetting that I’ve met science teachers bloke. Universally respect worthy they are not. Inherently intelligent they are not. Teaching a couple of periods of the utter basics of epidemiology to 13 year olds does not make you an epidemiologist.

Here's the thing blowin. Blindboy has way more scientific training than you do, and his opinions on covid and vaccinations are consistent with the vast majority of experts. You on the other hand, have zero scientific training and keep pushing BS opinions from fringe nutters.
I know who I'd rather believe.

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin Thursday, 30 Sep 2021 at 6:01pm
velocityjohnno wrote:

I'm also hearing stories of people severely immunocompromised getting infected and being alright (of course, anecdotal, not completely representative) - and of successful use of monoclonal inhibitors in cytokine storm conditions, with a nod to UK learning last year.
Otherwise, workers I know are on edge. Riots in the city, huge police presence and earthquakes haven't helped.

VJ- 99.58% of all people live through Covid. That’s not just 99.58% of healthy people. I think the survival rate for Octogenarians is around 75%. That means that around 8 out of 10 super old, frail and vulnerable people survive.

Covid can be fatal. But it’s not as big a killer as diabetes or heart disease. It’s not even in the same conversation. You’ll be OK mate.

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin Thursday, 30 Sep 2021 at 6:05pm
Vic Local wrote:
Blowin wrote:
blindboy wrote:

Ha ha a retired school teacher with a science degree and 20 years teaching senior Biology including an Epidemiology unit and with a highly qualified daughter in the frontline checking in regularly to debrief.

I think you’re forgetting that I’ve met science teachers bloke. Universally respect worthy they are not. Inherently intelligent they are not. Teaching a couple of periods of the utter basics of epidemiology to 13 year olds does not make you an epidemiologist.

Here's the thing blowin. Blindboy has way more scientific training than you do, and his opinions on covid and vaccinations are consistent with the vast majority of experts. You on the other hand, have zero scientific training and keep pushing BS opinions from fringe nutters.
I know who I'd rather believe.

Here’s the thing, Vic Local, those nurses holding up signs saying they don’t want to be forced into vaccination have way more scientific training than you. You have zero scientific training. I know who I’d sooner believe.

Apart from that, there is only one set of facts and they aren’t open to debate. The case fatality rate for Covid in Australia in 2021 is 0.42%. It doesn’t matter if Blindboy knows the contents of the year 8 science curriculum back to front, the facts don’t change.

JQ's picture
JQ's picture
JQ Thursday, 30 Sep 2021 at 6:04pm

Note that the data Blowin is relying on for his position is from the Doherty Institute, who have been providing modelling for the government. A reliable source no doubt, although he's taken it out of context.

But more noteworthy is he's chosen to cite it, but seemingly disagrees with their conclusions - some fairly precise cherry picker work.

https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2021/09/18/doherty-institute-mo...

"...Australia should maintain “medium” restrictions, such as stay-at-home orders, and ban travel during concerning outbreaks even after reaching 70 per cent full vaccination, according to the Doherty Institute’s analysis of its own modelling...."

Now I'm not 100% across the current plans from the govt. regards loosening restrictions, but I believe they are generally in line with the recommendations from the Doherty Institute.

The question is why does Blowin feel he can cite their data, but reject their conclusion?

I could have a go at answering that one, but I think I'll leave it this time.