COVID-19 Health System Overload Forecaster

Craig's picture
Craig started the topic in Wednesday, 18 Mar 2020 at 7:44pm

I've created a spreadsheet forecast which I'll update as we go..

There's also a website with live running data.. https://sites.google.com/view/stayhomeaustralia

tylerdurden's picture
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tylerdurden Sunday, 16 Jan 2022 at 9:16pm

VicLocal, that is a classic response from someone who has no good answers.
Ridicule the question, not address it.
Personally I think it will be very difficult if not impossible to achieve 80+% of our population fully boosted simultaneously yet you seem like this is the only answer.
That line of thinking costs a fortune and may not achieve anything. Keep an open mind mate, early treatment may be the answer

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local Sunday, 16 Jan 2022 at 9:23pm

"So why are GP’s banned from prescribing it? A few have been punished for doing so. Any good explanation why?"
Oh FFS TDD because there's fuck all evidence Ivermectin actually works. Christ mate, this drug has been examined thoroughly and rejected thoroughly. Do you seriously want a system where doctors can prescribe unproven medications that have side effects without consequences? Christ mate, doctors need to be held accountable for their decisions. You're basically arguing for an environment where doctors can prescribe ridiculous treatments with zero consequences. Evidence is important.
TDD, Seriously mate, enough with the Youtube medical research. There's no joy down that rabbit hole. Best not take the burleigh route.

tylerdurden's picture
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tylerdurden Sunday, 16 Jan 2022 at 9:23pm

Try this link, 20 min mark

https://m.

tylerdurden's picture
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tylerdurden Sunday, 16 Jan 2022 at 9:25pm

That comment VicLocal puts you completely at odds with the link Blindboy provided.

And in regards to YouTube medical research, do you disagree with Gideon?

Robo's picture
Robo's picture
Robo Sunday, 16 Jan 2022 at 9:31pm

Imagine rolling your sleeve up every 4 months, you people are so sucked in it’s laughable.

bluediamond's picture
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bluediamond Sunday, 16 Jan 2022 at 9:32pm

Should be noted ivermectin nobel prize honoured distinction.
Not just for horses and worms.

Robo's picture
Robo's picture
Robo Sunday, 16 Jan 2022 at 9:35pm
Vic Local wrote:

"So why are GP’s banned from prescribing it? A few have been punished for doing so. Any good explanation why?"
Oh FFS TDD because there's fuck all evidence Ivermectin actually works. Christ mate, this drug has been examined thoroughly and rejected thoroughly. Do you seriously want a system where doctors can prescribe unproven medications that have side effects without consequences? Christ mate, doctors need to be held accountable for their decisions. You're basically arguing for an environment where doctors can prescribe ridiculous treatments with zero consequences. Evidence is important.
TDD, Seriously mate, enough with the Youtube medical research. There's no joy down that rabbit hole. Best not take the burleigh route.

You mean like the sniff vaccine that doesn’t work and the side affects it causes lol, boom boom.

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local Sunday, 16 Jan 2022 at 9:39pm
tylerdurden wrote:

That line of thinking costs a fortune and may not achieve anything. Keep an open mind mate, early treatment may be the answer

Seriously TDD, this argument is ridiculous.
Firstly vaccinations may not achieve herd immunity (like you want) but it doesn't mean they don't "achieve anything". If you can't see how they are saving lives, that's scary.
"early treatment may be the answer" You do realise early treatments and vaccines are not mutually exclusive. Doctors can, and do do both.
There's no grand conspiracy why doctors support vaccines, don't prescribe ivermectin, and use the best available early treatments. It's an evidence based profession.
Mate you are heading down a bad road with this You Tube medical resurch. It doesn't lead to enlightenment. You won't discover stuff the thousands of professors and medical experts have missed. You'll just find bullshit, lots and lots of bullshit. .

Robo's picture
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Robo Sunday, 16 Jan 2022 at 9:45pm

Thought you had to be double jabbed to get a plane out of Australia, another gov rule changed to suit themselves.

tylerdurden's picture
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tylerdurden Sunday, 16 Jan 2022 at 9:49pm

I think you are purposely misconstruing things VicLocal.
You ridicule anyone who speaks negatively about the efficacy of vaccines, then claim there’s no evidence for Ivermectin when Gideon himself says it has plausible 5-10% effect.
At the same time, you can’t bring yourself to admit that despite a very high level of vaccination, which should have achieved herd immunity, it has simply not been achieved.
They have certainly decreased severity of illness but have not prevented a recent mass outbreak.
I would hazard a guess and suggest from you’re posts and opinions that I know a whole lot more about vaccine theory than you do but I’m sure you’ll dispute this too.
Not sure where you’re at, seems like you’re anti everyone.
This country has approved only budesonide and mono-clinal abs for early treatment...that’s the ScoMo policy, the same guy you are constantly deriding.
Not sure how therefore to approach this topic at all with you.

Supafreak's picture
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Supafreak Sunday, 16 Jan 2022 at 9:59pm

Id like to know why doctors can legally prescribe ivermectin in countries like the US and Japan but not Australia even after Professor Borody and other doctors treated 500 Australians as outpatients with no deaths . Countries using ivermectin https://ivmstatus.com/

udo's picture
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udo Sunday, 16 Jan 2022 at 10:05pm

TD - Aust GPs can still prescribe Ivermectin for Scabies and Worms ?

Supafreak's picture
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Supafreak Sunday, 16 Jan 2022 at 10:08pm
Robo wrote:

Thought you had to be double jabbed to get a plane out of Australia, another gov rule changed to suit themselves.

Must of had an exemption, you know, like the one he came in on .

Supafreak's picture
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Supafreak Sunday, 16 Jan 2022 at 10:20pm

Don’t know what came of this , nothing much has been said since pathetic articles came out accusing Borody of his motives being purely financially based . Doesn’t come across as the type of guy to be in medicine purely to make money. https://www.afr.com/policy/foreign-affairs/the-true-believers-backing-iv... Sydney-based Professor Thomas Borody does not support this view. He does, however, believe ivermectin-combination therapy can change the course of this pandemic. He and a group of other doctors have treated over 500 COVID-19 patients in Australia with a triple therapy consisting of ivermectin, doxycycline and zinc – without any deaths. The TGA ruling means they can no longer prescribe this combination. They are likely to substitute another off-patent drug, fluvoxamine, developed originally as an antidepressant.
“You have to do things in a process that is acceptable. You have to do it right,” says Borody. The group plans to seek a provisional application from the TGA for the ivermectin triple therapy using a literature-based submission with supportive evidence from patients treated. “We are doing it properly.”

udo's picture
udo's picture
udo Sunday, 16 Jan 2022 at 10:53pm
Supafreak wrote:
Robo wrote:

Thought you had to be double jabbed to get a plane out of Australia, another gov rule changed to suit themselves.

Must of had an exemption, you know, like the one he came in on .

Foreigners can leave anytime no double vax needed up to Airline if neg PCR test required

Blowin's picture
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Blowin Monday, 17 Jan 2022 at 5:27am

burleigh's picture
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burleigh Monday, 17 Jan 2022 at 7:17am
Vic Local wrote:

Do you seriously want a system where doctors can prescribe unproven medications that have side effects without consequences? Christ mate, doctors need to be held accountable for their decisions

You talking about the vax right?

No doctor is held accountable for the vax, so why other untested drugs.

Is the reason ivermectin is not tested because there is no patient? Which means no money for big pharma

Stok's picture
Stok's picture
Stok Monday, 17 Jan 2022 at 9:24am

Genuine question, at what death rate would people forgo their beliefs and support vaccination, without questioning government and health advices?

2.5%? 5%? 25%?

Say a new variant came out, killing 1 in 20 people, hospitalising 1 in 10, just as transmissible as Omicron.

Lockdowns are announced - who would protest?

1 month later, 'big Pharma' comes out with a booster, reduces risk of death by 75%, reduces risk of transmission by a degree (not exactly known) - who would take it? Who would rely on their own immunity?

Is it just a question of severity of covid which has shaped your position?

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Supafreak Monday, 17 Jan 2022 at 10:50am

Vic Local's picture
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Vic Local Monday, 17 Jan 2022 at 10:51am
Stok wrote:

Genuine question, at what death rate would people forgo their beliefs and support vaccination, without questioning government and health advices?

2.5%? 5%? 25%?

Say a new variant came out, killing 1 in 20 people, hospitalising 1 in 10, just as transmissible as Omicron.

Lockdowns are announced - who would protest?

1 month later, 'big Pharma' comes out with a booster, reduces risk of death by 75%, reduces risk of transmission by a degree (not exactly known) - who would take it? Who would rely on their own immunity?

Is it just a question of severity of covid which has shaped your position?

I reckon a bunch of the idiot posters here would be the types begging doctors for vaccines as they struggled to breath in ER.
Evidence means nothing to them until it becomes very personal.

tylerdurden's picture
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tylerdurden Monday, 17 Jan 2022 at 11:07am

I’ll post the question back at you Stok but in reverse: at what death rate would you say vaccine mandates are unnecessary?
1 in 1000, 1 in 2000, 1 in 10000?

Ben Harding's picture
Ben Harding's picture
Ben Harding Monday, 17 Jan 2022 at 11:11am
Vic Local wrote:
Stok wrote:

Genuine question, at what death rate would people forgo their beliefs and support vaccination, without questioning government and health advices?

2.5%? 5%? 25%?

Say a new variant came out, killing 1 in 20 people, hospitalising 1 in 10, just as transmissible as Omicron.

Lockdowns are announced - who would protest?

1 month later, 'big Pharma' comes out with a booster, reduces risk of death by 75%, reduces risk of transmission by a degree (not exactly known) - who would take it? Who would rely on their own immunity?

Is it just a question of severity of covid which has shaped your position?

I reckon a bunch of the idiot posters here would be the types begging doctors for vaccines as they struggled to breath in ER.
Evidence means nothing to them until it becomes very personal.

Straight away with the aggression. Are you always angry and extremely pissed off at everyone Viclocal? Nearly every post is riddled with venom, across the board. Having that much hate in your heart, even online, can't be good for you man.

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Stok Monday, 17 Jan 2022 at 11:23am
tylerdurden wrote:

I’ll post the question back at you Stok but in reverse: at what death rate would you say vaccine mandates are unnecessary?
1 in 1000, 1 in 2000, 1 in 10000?

I think you mean at what point would vaccine mandates become a public health risk - i.e. the risk of vaccinating outweighs the risk of letting it run.

Firstly, and thankfully, the numerous phases of clinical trials pretty quickly close out this question before a vaccine becomes available for public use.

But personally, say with covid as it stands, and assume that the government advice was 'we know the vaccine is risky, but it's there if you want it' I'd be pretty worried with anything like 1 death in 10,000 or less.

Of course, there's no way a vaccine would be rolled out with anything close to that, so it's purely hypothetical. however, there's no saying that the next variant, or next pandemic we have is the widow maker, killing 25%+ of infected.

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Roadkill Monday, 17 Jan 2022 at 11:34am
tylerdurden wrote:

I’ll post the question back at you Stok but in reverse: at what death rate would you say vaccine mandates are unnecessary?
1 in 1000, 1 in 2000, 1 in 10000?

why not answer the question first, then ask back at you.

Answering a question with a question is just avoiding answering.

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tylerdurden Monday, 17 Jan 2022 at 11:53am

You’re getting there Stok.
It’s way more complicated than meets the eye or is worth describing in detail here.
That’s why the usual development of vaccines is a 5-10 year process.

Virulence of the disease, transmissibility, treatment options, local resources, cost and adverse effects are just a few of the determinants of whether or not vaccines are the right option. So many variables it’s impossible to say “the disease has a 5% death rate therefore we are going to vaccinate the entire population”. There has to be a net benefit, which is incredibly difficult to quantify sometimes.

For example, if for every 100 people who caught the disease 5 died, yet hardly anyone caught the disease would it be worth it? And if it was highly contagious but had a extraordinarily low death rate then likewise would it be worth it?
And what if the vaccines were extraordinarily expensive?

And an infinite number of permutations in between.
This is not being an “anti-vaxxer”. These are the factors that the regulatory bodies take into account in order to decide whether to authorise a vaccine or not.

In regards to Covid, my opinion is that vaccines are an essential tool but not necessarily the sole answer. Hope that helps broaden the conversation a bit here

indo-dreaming's picture
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indo-dreaming Monday, 17 Jan 2022 at 11:50am
Stok wrote:

Genuine question, at what death rate would people forgo their beliefs and support vaccination, without questioning government and health advices?

2.5%? 5%? 25%?

Say a new variant came out, killing 1 in 20 people, hospitalising 1 in 10, just as transmissible as Omicron.

Lockdowns are announced - who would protest?

1 month later, 'big Pharma' comes out with a booster, reduces risk of death by 75%, reduces risk of transmission by a degree (not exactly known) - who would take it? Who would rely on their own immunity?

Is it just a question of severity of covid which has shaped your position?

I don't think its that's simple.

Because the risk will always vary by a huge amount based on age, weight and health.

It would be pretty easy to be a young fit and healthy Covid anti vaxer with low risk from Covid, but you would have to a nutcase to be a Covid anti vaxer and be 60+, obese, with other health issues.

Vic Local's picture
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Vic Local Monday, 17 Jan 2022 at 11:53am
Ben Harding wrote:
Vic Local wrote:
Stok wrote:

Genuine question, at what death rate would people forgo their beliefs and support vaccination, without questioning government and health advices?

2.5%? 5%? 25%?

Say a new variant came out, killing 1 in 20 people, hospitalising 1 in 10, just as transmissible as Omicron.

Lockdowns are announced - who would protest?

1 month later, 'big Pharma' comes out with a booster, reduces risk of death by 75%, reduces risk of transmission by a degree (not exactly known) - who would take it? Who would rely on their own immunity?

Is it just a question of severity of covid which has shaped your position?

I reckon a bunch of the idiot posters here would be the types begging doctors for vaccines as they struggled to breath in ER.
Evidence means nothing to them until it becomes very personal.

Straight away with the aggression. Are you always angry and extremely pissed off at everyone Viclocal? Nearly every post is riddled with venom, across the board. Having that much hate in your heart, even online, can't be good for you man.

No Ben, I'm a pretty happy go lucky type of bloke. Just won't cop opinions that are dangers to others. Hence my aggression to anti-vax idiots and racists.

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tylerdurden Monday, 17 Jan 2022 at 11:55am

Hey Vic, a couple of my posts were neither anti-vax, racist nor a danger to anybody yet you still called me an idiot

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Stok Monday, 17 Jan 2022 at 12:03pm
tylerdurden wrote:

...That’s why the usual development of vaccines is a 5-10 year process....

...There has to be a net benefit....

...These are the factors that the regulatory bodies take into account in order to decide whether to authorise a vaccine or not...

In regards to Covid, my opinion is that vaccines are an essential tool but not necessarily the sole answer.

In regards to your first point, we had a global pandemic response, the likes of which we've never seen, in a time when information sharing and availability is beyond comparison to the past. I'm quite happy to reject the idea that the vaccines were rushed dangerously, and accept the much more likely idea that we produced these vaccines in a manner which should be celebrated as a triumph for modern science and regulatory processes.

You've stated your opinion, but you also have stated that regulatory bodies look at this information before making a call - so do you not trust these regulatory bodies?

Which goes back to my original question - if the death rate was being splashed across headlines that it was 1 in 20 people dying, would you still hold your opinion?

Vic Local's picture
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Vic Local Monday, 17 Jan 2022 at 12:09pm
tylerdurden wrote:

Hey Vic, a couple of my posts were neither anti-vax, racist nor a danger to anybody yet you still called me an idiot

You just pushed a bullshit treatment (which does have consequences) so calling you an idiot was absolutely accurate.

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Stok Monday, 17 Jan 2022 at 12:11pm
indo-dreaming wrote:

I don't think its that's simple.

Because the risk will always vary by a huge amount based on age, weight and health.

It would be pretty easy to be a young fit and healthy Covid anti vaxer with low risk from Covid, but you would have to a nutcase to be a Covid anti vaxer and be 60+, obese, with other health issues.

You've highlighted an issue....so if it killed 1 in 30 people under 60 and in good health, but 1 in 5 people over 60 with underlying issues....would people accept a vaccine mandate? If the vaccines reportedly had side effects for 1 in 10,0000 people....killed 1 in a million.....could you imagine how screwed we'd be?

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tylerdurden Monday, 17 Jan 2022 at 12:11pm

A disease with 1 in 20 death rate with extraordinarily low transmissibility, good quality treatment options, and an extraordinarily high cost vaccine with frequent and devastating adverse effects then no, I would not recommend vaccination

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tylerdurden Monday, 17 Jan 2022 at 12:14pm

Fair enough Vic, you were justified in calling me an idiot.
Just make sure you add that to your list of justifications for being aggressive: “a person who states an opinion that I think is bullshit”

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Vic Local Monday, 17 Jan 2022 at 12:22pm
tylerdurden wrote:

Fair enough Vic, you were justified in calling me an idiot.
Just make sure you add that to your list of justifications for being aggressive: “a person who states an opinion that I think is bullshit”

No tylerdurden. Your bullshit opinion has to be a danger to others. Pushing quack medical treatments qualifies. If you want to push ridiculous opinions that are only a danger to yourself, that's fine with me.

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tylerdurden Monday, 17 Jan 2022 at 12:36pm

Gideon M-K has said on the record it is plausible that Ivermectin has a 5-10% benefit.
Ivermectin has an extraordinarily good safety profile.
I’m pro vax and have been vaccinated.
Not sure anything I’m saying is dangerous to others

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Blowin Monday, 17 Jan 2022 at 12:49pm

Harvey Norman claiming his business nous in observing the need for RAT tests during the preceding omicron outbreaks in Ireland and Malaysia is how he came to stockpile RAT tests in September.

Cool story Bro. Too bad Omicron was only discovered late November. And that omicron became established throughout the rest of the world, Ex South Africa, virtually simultaneously.

Someone is telling porky pies!

https://www.smh.com.au/business/workplace/the-smart-companies-that-avoid...

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burleigh Monday, 17 Jan 2022 at 1:24pm

Hey Vic,
17 deaths in NSW today - 14 fully vaccinated
7 deaths in QLD - 5 fully jabbed.

You seeing the beginning of the pattern yet?

Your jab doesn’t work

Blowin's picture
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Blowin Monday, 17 Jan 2022 at 1:49pm

"This is a simple, basic proposition: If you’re vaccinated, you’re not going to be hospitalized, you’re not going to be in an ICU unit, and you’re not going to die," Biden said.

Roadkill's picture
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Roadkill Monday, 17 Jan 2022 at 1:57pm
burleigh wrote:

Hey Vic,
17 deaths in NSW today - 14 fully vaccinated
7 deaths in QLD - 5 fully jabbed.

You seeing the beginning of the pattern yet?

Your jab doesn’t work

Not true

Roadkill's picture
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Roadkill Monday, 17 Jan 2022 at 2:00pm

7 deaths, all elderly. None were fully faxed.

It’s not hard to find the truth. But to deliberately post incorrect info to suit a bias is poor form.

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bluediamond Monday, 17 Jan 2022 at 2:03pm

Id say blocking the conversation around possible effective treatments to go with Covid/vaccines is alot more dangerous to public health.
I guess the World Health Organisation are idiots too..
https://www.thedesertreview.com/opinion/columnists/indias-ivermectin-bla...

gray's picture
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gray Monday, 17 Jan 2022 at 2:07pm
burleigh wrote:

Hey Vic,
17 deaths in NSW today - 14 fully vaccinated
7 deaths in QLD - 5 fully jabbed.

You seeing the beginning of the pattern yet?

Your jab doesn’t work

Make sure you check your maths / stats on this, burleigh: remember that 90%+ are vaxx, so the death rate at a numeric level cannot be directly compared between these two. Rather, you need to see the death rate per 100k or similar, for each group, vaxxed and non-vaxx. There's a name for this type of statistical comparison failure, but I can't remember it...who cares. The maths still stands and makes sense.

Also, not directed at you specifically, but I've also looked into Invermectin quite a bit and found nothing substantial to back the various claims of effectiveness against COVID. It is interesting to note the Merck statement on their own website about its use: https://www.merck.com/news/merck-statement-on-ivermectin-use-during-the-...
Go figure...people still want to take it after that? Why wouldn't Merck want to make money from it? Note also that Merck are still trying to develop their own COVID vaxx...so there's really no good reason for them to not want to market something in the meantime to make money (like all 'Big Pharma' does, right???).

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Blowin Monday, 17 Jan 2022 at 2:08pm

burleigh's picture
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burleigh Monday, 17 Jan 2022 at 2:13pm
Roadkill wrote:
burleigh wrote:

Hey Vic,
17 deaths in NSW today - 14 fully vaccinated
7 deaths in QLD - 5 fully jabbed.

You seeing the beginning of the pattern yet?

Your jab doesn’t work

Not true

Straight from the ABC website:

The Health Minister says all seven people who died had not received a booster shot. Two of the people were unvaccinated.

Notice how they said “booster shot”

You’re wrong Toadkill, 5 were “fully vaccinated” but they had not received their 3rd.

burleigh's picture
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burleigh Monday, 17 Jan 2022 at 2:14pm
gray wrote:
burleigh wrote:

Hey Vic,
17 deaths in NSW today - 14 fully vaccinated
7 deaths in QLD - 5 fully jabbed.

You seeing the beginning of the pattern yet?

Your jab doesn’t work

Make sure you check your maths / stats on this, burleigh: remember that 90%+ are vaxx, so the death rate at a numeric level cannot be directly compared between these two. Rather, you need to see the death rate per 100k or similar, for each group, vaxxed and non-vaxx. There's a name for this type of statistical comparison failure, but I can't remember it...who cares. The maths still stands and makes sense.

Also, not directed at you specifically, but I've also looked into Invermectin quite a bit and found nothing substantial to back the various claims of effectiveness against COVID. It is interesting to note the Merck statement on their own website about its use: https://www.merck.com/news/merck-statement-on-ivermectin-use-during-the-...
Go figure...people still want to take it after that? Why wouldn't Merck want to make money from it? Note also that Merck are still trying to develop their own COVID vaxx...so there's really no good reason for them to not want to market something in the meantime to make money (like all 'Big Pharma' does, right???).

Sorry mate but you’re wrong. Australia is around 78% fully vaccinated

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burleigh Monday, 17 Jan 2022 at 2:15pm
Roadkill wrote:

7 deaths, all elderly. None were fully faxed.

It’s not hard to find the truth. But to deliberately post incorrect info to suit a bias is poor form.

You have just lied. Again. Horrible form from you but I expect nothing less. Hiding from the truth

Vic Local's picture
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Vic Local Monday, 17 Jan 2022 at 2:21pm

Hope this works.
https://ibb.co/cyytJVC

Roadkill's picture
Roadkill's picture
Roadkill Monday, 17 Jan 2022 at 2:22pm
burleigh wrote:
Roadkill wrote:
burleigh wrote:

Hey Vic,
17 deaths in NSW today - 14 fully vaccinated
7 deaths in QLD - 5 fully jabbed.

You seeing the beginning of the pattern yet?

Your jab doesn’t work

Not true

Straight from the ABC website:

The Health Minister says all seven people who died had not received a booster shot. Two of the people were unvaccinated.

Notice how they said “booster shot”

You’re wrong Toadkill, 5 were “fully vaccinated” but they had not received their 3rd.

Fully vaccinated is 2 shots and a booster. Thus, none were fully vaxed.

tylerdurden's picture
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tylerdurden Monday, 17 Jan 2022 at 2:23pm

Gray, the Merck statement in that link you provided included this quote:

“A concerning lack of safety data in the majority of studies.”

However, this study from 2013 says something a bit different. Apparently the study was commissioned by Merck.

https://accp1.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1177/009127002237994?si...

Remember also back when Merck released that statement at the start of 2021 they were in the process of developing their own anti-viral Molnupiravir for market. They have the patent for Molnupiravir but Ivermectin is out of patent

Vic Local's picture
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Vic Local Monday, 17 Jan 2022 at 2:24pm

Take two:
[img]https://ibb.co/cyytJVC [/image]
OK blokes, how do you publish an image here?