COVID-19 Health System Overload Forecaster

Craig's picture
Craig started the topic in Wednesday, 18 Mar 2020 at 7:44pm

I've created a spreadsheet forecast which I'll update as we go..

There's also a website with live running data.. https://sites.google.com/view/stayhomeaustralia

Robo's picture
Robo's picture
Robo Monday, 17 Jan 2022 at 8:03pm
Vic Local wrote:
Blowin wrote:

Yeah, nah.

I want to hear you say that the filthy mud blood unvaccinated are occupying 99% of NSW ICU beds first. I want to gauge the extent of your hideous mental perversion towards PANIC bloke.

Well you won't be hearing me say that because unlike you, I deal in reality. Come on blowin you absolute liar, where did you get your 3% figure from?

You made the statement. You've had days to back it up but you can't because, you know, you lied.

Time to put up or shut up blowin.

Pot calling the kettle black

tylerdurden's picture
tylerdurden's picture
tylerdurden Monday, 17 Jan 2022 at 8:04pm

Any recommendations boys to add to the early Covid treatment protocol or just stick with the current two and give ScoMo and the Libs a big pat on the back?

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin Monday, 17 Jan 2022 at 8:06pm

Would reproducing the NSW health’s own graphics be proof enough to quell the yappy vic local terrier?

Probably not as he is congenitally predisposed to lying in order to incite irrational fear in others.

Same for Sicko.

Anyway….


sypkan's picture
sypkan's picture
sypkan Monday, 17 Jan 2022 at 8:10pm
tylerdurden wrote:

Any recommendations boys to add to the early Covid treatment protocol or just stick with the current two and give ScoMo and the Libs a big pat on the back?

does seem a lost opportunity...

both in terms of treatment, and for the gratuitous and shameless point scorers...

most interesting how it gets overlooked

the zealotry for covid is a bizarre affliction...

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin Monday, 17 Jan 2022 at 8:15pm

There you have it…..literal proof that Sicko Blindboy and VIC Local both WANT the virus to appear worse than it actually is.

They are more than happy to lie in order to scare people. For them that is part of the appeal!

They are deranged.

sypkan's picture
sypkan's picture
sypkan Monday, 17 Jan 2022 at 8:12pm

"They are deranged."

still...

tylerdurden's picture
tylerdurden's picture
tylerdurden Monday, 17 Jan 2022 at 8:13pm

You’ll notice the deafening silence from those two Spykan.
Caught in a dilemma of having to offer up a couple of other treatment options or admitting that ScoMo has got it right....crickets!

Either way, I expect to be called an idiot any time soon

blindboy's picture
blindboy's picture
blindboy Monday, 17 Jan 2022 at 8:54pm

"Someone who’s in their 20s or teens who’s unvaccinated has the same risk of being hospitalised as someone who’s gotten a booster dose or third dose is in their 80s.”

The logic is crystal clear and simple. The comparison is between the ACTUAL risk of the two groups - unvaccinated teens and 20s living as they do and fully vaccinated 80 year olds living as they do. But yeh I know it's easy to be confused by simple logic when you are used to dealing with imaginary numbers eh Blowie? Hey as the resident expert in the field can you explain what the fuck exactly is going on with the square root of -1? It's been doing my head in for years. Now back to Grand Sumo. It's almost as entertaining as Blowie's stand up routine.

tylerdurden's picture
tylerdurden's picture
tylerdurden Monday, 17 Jan 2022 at 9:02pm

That’s you’re answer Blindboy??
Good luck mate, go find a punching bag and get your anger out there

Supafreak's picture
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Supafreak Monday, 17 Jan 2022 at 9:04pm

I’m looking at this in a positive way , I don’t think there’s a lot of under 20s that are unvaccinated being hospitalised so there shouldn’t be many 80 year olds that are boostered getting hospitalised either . Unless someone has the current stats on age of those hospitalised ?

GuySmiley's picture
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GuySmiley Monday, 17 Jan 2022 at 9:17pm

Swellnet challenge

Can we all take a deep breath and stop posting on this forum topic for 24 hours.

That’s everyone, let’s see it relegated to the archives and see how much brighter a new day can be.

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local Monday, 17 Jan 2022 at 9:29pm

Hey blowin,
You do realise ICU capacity is down due to staff shortages? Did you ever think that that flat line of 1000 beds across 4 months was a tad unrealistic given how many medical folk were isolating.
About 2 weeks ago things were so desperate in NSW, ICU staff who should have been isolating were ordered back to work. Since then, cases have skyrocketed and the pressures on the system (not to mention the number of medical professionals getting covid) have just increased. You may like that graphic, but it doesn't reflect the ICU capacity situation in the hospitals.
But hey, for shits and giggles, let's just imagine there's 1000 ICU beds and the necessary staff to make them operable. There's 200 + covid patients in ICU half are unvaxxed. Do the maths champ. 10%+.of ICU beds are filled with unvaxxed fuckwits. Not 3% as you claimed
You see an unrealistic graphic and get all excited thinking it's proved you're right. Sorry mate, it just means you're out by 333% on an unrealistic best case scenario.
It must be sad being that wrong and still think you're a winner.

sypkan's picture
sypkan's picture
sypkan Monday, 17 Jan 2022 at 9:30pm

no

why would we?

I really do not understand people's problem with this thread

it's people thrashing out their positions... as it should be...

saltyone's picture
saltyone's picture
saltyone Monday, 17 Jan 2022 at 9:37pm

https://www.msdmanuals.com/en-au/home/immune-disorders/biology-of-the-im...

The human body is so incredible with what it can do! I find this stuff fascinating. The immune system is a powerhouse!

burleigh's picture
burleigh's picture
burleigh Monday, 17 Jan 2022 at 9:47pm
Vic Local wrote:

Hey blowin,
You do realise ICU capacity is down due to staff shortages? Did you ever think that that flat line of 1000 beds across 4 months was a tad unrealistic given how many medical folk were isolating.
About 2 weeks ago things were so desperate in NSW, ICU staff who should have been isolating were ordered back to work. Since then, cases have skyrocketed and the pressures on the system (not to mention the number of medical professionals getting covid) have just increased. You may like that graphic, but it doesn't reflect the ICU capacity situation in the hospitals.
But hey, for shits and giggles, let's just imagine there's 1000 ICU beds and the necessary staff to make them operable. There's 200 + covid patients in ICU half are unvaxxed. Do the maths champ. 10%+.of ICU beds are filled with unvaxxed fuckwits. Not 3% as you claimed
You see an unrealistic graphic and get all excited thinking it's proved you're right. Sorry mate, it just means you're out by 333% on an unrealistic best case scenario.
It must be sad being that wrong and still think you're a winner.

Vic, if half the people in ICU are unvaxxed, why is the death rate way higher for vaxxed people? Pandemic of the vaccinated?

burleigh's picture
burleigh's picture
burleigh Monday, 17 Jan 2022 at 9:51pm
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno Monday, 17 Jan 2022 at 10:09pm

https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/i-don-t-think-people-underst...

more from those in the Vic hospital system

from those working in it I know, I'd confirm the descriptions and the measures being taken

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno Monday, 17 Jan 2022 at 10:21pm

gym attendance down and membership suspensions up

https://www.theage.com.au/lifestyle/health-and-wellness/weighting-game-g...

there's so many data points at present, of complete hiccups to business models (on top of the dire health system stuff) - sitting with popcorn watching each day's new industry getting whacked.

This will make for some really great economics theses in years to come

One theory I read is that a mature economy transitions into heavy services reliance, so is much more vulnerable to constant smaller shocks... this one is a doozy

velocityjohnno's picture
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velocityjohnno Monday, 17 Jan 2022 at 11:01pm

https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/covid-fear-and-supply-famine-j...

"Wesfarmers’ Kmart Group division, which also houses the online marketplace division Catch Group, will contribute earnings before tax of between $170 million and $180 million for the December half, a shadow of the $487 million profit delivered for the same period in 2021, and the $343 million made in 2020.

It has been the perfect storm for retailers - in addition to flagging consumer demand, costs have increased, discounts have been employed to reduce inventory and logistics have become a nightmare.

Managing and paying staff who are isolating is one half of the challenge. Finding staff to man stores and distribution centres is the second arm of a debilitating pincer.

Meanwhile, managing inventory during a period where demand is unprecedentedly uncertain is nothing short of a crap shoot."

I like the use of 'debilitating pincer'. Creative.

shoredump's picture
shoredump's picture
shoredump Tuesday, 18 Jan 2022 at 6:54am

“There's 200 + covid patients in ICU half are unvaxxed. Do the maths champ. 10%+.of ICU beds are filled with unvaxxed fuckwits”

Isn’t that what it was built for??

That and that 30% fat fuckwits, plus the elderly and the unlucky

We won the battle with covid, the hospital system did not buckle, it’s over

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin Tuesday, 18 Jan 2022 at 7:43am

This obese looking chap declaring the threat posed to public health by a super fit athlete who’s already had covid.

Heads up tubby- YOU can get infected and spread the virus. Being obese puts YOU in the highest risk category for severe covid and vaccination will not necessarily protect you. Nor will it protect the public health system which YOU might place under pressure due to YOUR poor lifestyle choices.

Perfect example of the vapid hypocrisy issued forth by the authoritarian hateful purveyors of this type of drivel.

The tokenism of the blokey language does not disguise this cynical politicking by this tub. He is a former LNP adviser and this article is dog whistling hate speech used to drive up support for his equally tubby boss ….Scummocchio.

There needs to be consequences for this grubby urging of division in society for their petty political advantage.

This is before we even contemplate that the state of the health system is a direct result of LNP underfunding and attempts to privatise this once great institution. YOU are to blame for that too, tubs.

Scum.

https://www.smh.com.au/sport/tennis/dear-novak-here-s-why-australians-ar...

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local Tuesday, 18 Jan 2022 at 8:07am

"Hate speech" blowin?

Roadkill's picture
Roadkill's picture
Roadkill Tuesday, 18 Jan 2022 at 8:14am

So the fat fucks, elderly and unlucky, have zero value and who gives a fuck if they die? They do have some good to offer…like raising the death stats for vaccinated…which brings joy to a few.

Roadkill's picture
Roadkill's picture
Roadkill Tuesday, 18 Jan 2022 at 8:16am
Vic Local wrote:

"Hate speech" blowin?
https://youtu.be/syV2LkGpQB0

Blowin is bringing peace and love to the community…according to, blowin.

Supafreak's picture
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Supafreak Tuesday, 18 Jan 2022 at 8:25am

Israel Finds Fourth COVID Booster is Ineffective, While Hospitalised Omicron Patients Fare Much Better Than Delta Patients https://healthpolicy-watch.news/israel-fourth-covid-booster-ineffective/

gray's picture
gray's picture
gray Tuesday, 18 Jan 2022 at 8:27am
burleigh wrote:
gray wrote:
burleigh wrote:

Hey Vic,
17 deaths in NSW today - 14 fully vaccinated
7 deaths in QLD - 5 fully jabbed.

You seeing the beginning of the pattern yet?

Your jab doesn’t work

Make sure you check your maths / stats on this, burleigh: remember that 90%+ are vaxx, so the death rate at a numeric level cannot be directly compared between these two. Rather, you need to see the death rate per 100k or similar, for each group, vaxxed and non-vaxx. There's a name for this type of statistical comparison failure, but I can't remember it...who cares. The maths still stands and makes sense.

Also, not directed at you specifically, but I've also looked into Invermectin quite a bit and found nothing substantial to back the various claims of effectiveness against COVID. It is interesting to note the Merck statement on their own website about its use: https://www.merck.com/news/merck-statement-on-ivermectin-use-during-the-...
Go figure...people still want to take it after that? Why wouldn't Merck want to make money from it? Note also that Merck are still trying to develop their own COVID vaxx...so there's really no good reason for them to not want to market something in the meantime to make money (like all 'Big Pharma' does, right???).

Sorry mate but you’re wrong. Australia is around 78% fully vaccinated

Sorry mate, you're quoting figures for NSW and QLD, not ALL of Aus. Regardless, even if we look at >=12 2 doses, then you have 93% in NSW. So let's use that example to explain the stats here.

Let's say NSW had only 1m people >=12 yrs old (easier calcs for me), if 93% is double vaxxed then the population fully vaxxed is 930,000 (or so), and 70,000 not vaxxed.

If 17 people died, and 14 were fully vaxxed, 3 not, then:
Death Rates per 100k:
930k / 100k = 9.3, so death rate is 14 / 9.3 = 1.5 deaths per 100k
70k / 100k = 0.7, so death rate is 3 / 0.7 = 4.3 deaths per 100k

So you can see that when comparing like-for-like (per 100k population sets) for the two vastly DIFFERENT population sizes, you get just under 3 times the death rate for non-vaxxed.

Hope that helps you and any others still confused by this common statistical error.

monkeyboy's picture
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monkeyboy Tuesday, 18 Jan 2022 at 8:27am
gray's picture
gray's picture
gray Tuesday, 18 Jan 2022 at 8:28am
burleigh wrote:
Vic Local wrote:

Hey blowin,
You do realise ICU capacity is down due to staff shortages? Did you ever think that that flat line of 1000 beds across 4 months was a tad unrealistic given how many medical folk were isolating.
About 2 weeks ago things were so desperate in NSW, ICU staff who should have been isolating were ordered back to work. Since then, cases have skyrocketed and the pressures on the system (not to mention the number of medical professionals getting covid) have just increased. You may like that graphic, but it doesn't reflect the ICU capacity situation in the hospitals.
But hey, for shits and giggles, let's just imagine there's 1000 ICU beds and the necessary staff to make them operable. There's 200 + covid patients in ICU half are unvaxxed. Do the maths champ. 10%+.of ICU beds are filled with unvaxxed fuckwits. Not 3% as you claimed
You see an unrealistic graphic and get all excited thinking it's proved you're right. Sorry mate, it just means you're out by 333% on an unrealistic best case scenario.
It must be sad being that wrong and still think you're a winner.

Vic, if half the people in ICU are unvaxxed, why is the death rate way higher for vaxxed people? Pandemic of the vaccinated?

See my latest reply just above to explain that the death rate is NOT way higher for vaxxed people, thanks.

Roadkill's picture
Roadkill's picture
Roadkill Tuesday, 18 Jan 2022 at 9:09am
monkeyboy's picture
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monkeyboy Tuesday, 18 Jan 2022 at 9:22am

4th shot now recommended for immunocompromised Adults. 3rd shot recommended for children.

7.51am
ATAGI recommends booster shots for vulnerable children

Stok's picture
Stok's picture
Stok Tuesday, 18 Jan 2022 at 9:36am
burleigh wrote:

Vic, if half the people in ICU are unvaxxed, why is the death rate way higher for vaxxed people? Pandemic of the vaccinated?

Pandemic of the innumerate, more like.

overthefalls's picture
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overthefalls Tuesday, 18 Jan 2022 at 9:49am

Hey Burleigh, you might think the following question is irrelevant, but I think the analogy is useful when it comes to interpreting the statistics regarding the hospitalisation of vaxxed and unvaxxed patients. Do you think Aboriginal adults are overrepresented in the prison population? Bear in mind that they only represent 3% of the general population, but represent 27% of the prison population. According to the logic that you apply to hospitalisation statistics, Aboriginal adults are not overrepresented because a higher percentage of non-Aboriginal adults are in prison. Can you see the error in your interpretation of the hospitalisation statistics?

shoredump's picture
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shoredump Tuesday, 18 Jan 2022 at 10:17am
Roadkill wrote:

So the fat fucks, elderly and unlucky, have zero value and who gives a fuck if they die? They do have some good to offer…like raising the death stats for vaccinated…which brings joy to a few.

They’re your words

Everyone has equal value, including vegan anti vaxxers

That’s why we have public hospitals

Supafreak's picture
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Supafreak Tuesday, 18 Jan 2022 at 10:26am
Stok's picture
Stok's picture
Stok Tuesday, 18 Jan 2022 at 10:35am
Supafreak wrote:

Anybody care to comment on this article ? https://healthpolicy-watch.news/israel-fourth-covid-booster-ineffective/

My comment - it's typical, one sided journalist piece designed to sway and manipulate.

Title of the article states they are ineffective.

First sentence (journalist's 'executive summary') 'A fourth COVID-19 booster mRNA vaccine has proven ineffective against Omicron infection,'

Actual quote from the scientist being questioned - “Despite a significant increase in antibodies after the fourth vaccine, this protection is only partially effective against the Omicron strain, which is relatively resistant to the vaccine,”

So - significant increase in antibodies, and partially effective - well, how partial? Do they have results yet? Partial is a bit different to the journalist's opinion of 'proven ineffective'.

Oh - they have 154 workers who received their fourth shot 2 weeks ago - cool, that sounds like a good study group.

Didn't bother reading the rest, but I did see the sub headline further down, reminding everyone of how Omicron is actually mild.

Far out, and you wonder why we have problems here.

burleigh's picture
burleigh's picture
burleigh Tuesday, 18 Jan 2022 at 10:56am
gray wrote:
burleigh wrote:
gray wrote:
burleigh wrote:

Hey Vic,
17 deaths in NSW today - 14 fully vaccinated
7 deaths in QLD - 5 fully jabbed.

You seeing the beginning of the pattern yet?

Your jab doesn’t work

Make sure you check your maths / stats on this, burleigh: remember that 90%+ are vaxx, so the death rate at a numeric level cannot be directly compared between these two. Rather, you need to see the death rate per 100k or similar, for each group, vaxxed and non-vaxx. There's a name for this type of statistical comparison failure, but I can't remember it...who cares. The maths still stands and makes sense.

Also, not directed at you specifically, but I've also looked into Invermectin quite a bit and found nothing substantial to back the various claims of effectiveness against COVID. It is interesting to note the Merck statement on their own website about its use: https://www.merck.com/news/merck-statement-on-ivermectin-use-during-the-...
Go figure...people still want to take it after that? Why wouldn't Merck want to make money from it? Note also that Merck are still trying to develop their own COVID vaxx...so there's really no good reason for them to not want to market something in the meantime to make money (like all 'Big Pharma' does, right???).

Sorry mate but you’re wrong. Australia is around 78% fully vaccinated

Sorry mate, you're quoting figures for NSW and QLD, not ALL of Aus. Regardless, even if we look at >=12 2 doses, then you have 93% in NSW. So let's use that example to explain the stats here.

Let's say NSW had only 1m people >=12 yrs old (easier calcs for me), if 93% is double vaxxed then the population fully vaxxed is 930,000 (or so), and 70,000 not vaxxed.

If 17 people died, and 14 were fully vaxxed, 3 not, then:
Death Rates per 100k:
930k / 100k = 9.3, so death rate is 14 / 9.3 = 1.5 deaths per 100k
70k / 100k = 0.7, so death rate is 3 / 0.7 = 4.3 deaths per 100k

So you can see that when comparing like-for-like (per 100k population sets) for the two vastly DIFFERENT population sizes, you get just under 3 times the death rate for non-vaxxed.

Hope that helps you and any others still confused by this common statistical error.

Only relevant if they don’t include kids under 12 in covid stats, but they do. You can’t just leave out numbers to suit you.

Even with your irrelevant stats, shouldn’t your wonder drug do better? That’s what you were promised.

burleigh's picture
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burleigh Tuesday, 18 Jan 2022 at 10:54am

Would you really take health advise from an obese doctor?

https://fb.watch/aBKNPqQkJ8/

burleigh's picture
burleigh's picture
burleigh Tuesday, 18 Jan 2022 at 11:00am

You guys are going to loose your shit over this:

NSW 36 deaths - 33 fully vaccinated.

How on earth are you muppets going to defend this one?

Supafreak's picture
Supafreak's picture
Supafreak Tuesday, 18 Jan 2022 at 11:09am
Stok wrote:
Supafreak wrote:

Anybody care to comment on this article ? https://healthpolicy-watch.news/israel-fourth-covid-booster-ineffective/

My comment - it's typical, one sided journalist piece designed to sway and manipulate.

Title of the article states they are ineffective.

First sentence (journalist's 'executive summary') 'A fourth COVID-19 booster mRNA vaccine has proven ineffective against Omicron infection,'

Actual quote from the scientist being questioned - “Despite a significant increase in antibodies after the fourth vaccine, this protection is only partially effective against the Omicron strain, which is relatively resistant to the vaccine,”

So - significant increase in antibodies, and partially effective - well, how partial? Do they have results yet? Partial is a bit different to the journalist's opinion of 'proven ineffective'.

Oh - they have 154 workers who received their fourth shot 2 weeks ago - cool, that sounds like a good study group.

Didn't bother reading the rest, but I did see the sub headline further down, reminding everyone of how Omicron is actually mild.

Far out, and you wonder why we have problems here.

It’s clear you have no understanding of the study or what the article is actually saying , but then you did admit you didn’t read it all . Same study can be found in bloomberg news but it has a paywall . So you also disregard what the WHO is saying, very interesting. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-01-11/repeat-booster-shots-.... https://www.bloomberg.com/asia

gray's picture
gray's picture
gray Tuesday, 18 Jan 2022 at 11:11am
burleigh wrote:
gray wrote:
burleigh wrote:
gray wrote:
burleigh wrote:

Hey Vic,
17 deaths in NSW today - 14 fully vaccinated
7 deaths in QLD - 5 fully jabbed.

You seeing the beginning of the pattern yet?

Your jab doesn’t work

Make sure you check your maths / stats on this, burleigh: remember that 90%+ are vaxx, so the death rate at a numeric level cannot be directly compared between these two. Rather, you need to see the death rate per 100k or similar, for each group, vaxxed and non-vaxx. There's a name for this type of statistical comparison failure, but I can't remember it...who cares. The maths still stands and makes sense.

Also, not directed at you specifically, but I've also looked into Invermectin quite a bit and found nothing substantial to back the various claims of effectiveness against COVID. It is interesting to note the Merck statement on their own website about its use: https://www.merck.com/news/merck-statement-on-ivermectin-use-during-the-...
Go figure...people still want to take it after that? Why wouldn't Merck want to make money from it? Note also that Merck are still trying to develop their own COVID vaxx...so there's really no good reason for them to not want to market something in the meantime to make money (like all 'Big Pharma' does, right???).

Sorry mate but you’re wrong. Australia is around 78% fully vaccinated

Sorry mate, you're quoting figures for NSW and QLD, not ALL of Aus. Regardless, even if we look at >=12 2 doses, then you have 93% in NSW. So let's use that example to explain the stats here.

Let's say NSW had only 1m people >=12 yrs old (easier calcs for me), if 93% is double vaxxed then the population fully vaxxed is 930,000 (or so), and 70,000 not vaxxed.

If 17 people died, and 14 were fully vaxxed, 3 not, then:
Death Rates per 100k:
930k / 100k = 9.3, so death rate is 14 / 9.3 = 1.5 deaths per 100k
70k / 100k = 0.7, so death rate is 3 / 0.7 = 4.3 deaths per 100k

So you can see that when comparing like-for-like (per 100k population sets) for the two vastly DIFFERENT population sizes, you get just under 3 times the death rate for non-vaxxed.

Hope that helps you and any others still confused by this common statistical error.

Only relevant if they don’t include kids under 12 in covid stats, but they do. You can’t just leave out numbers to suit you.

Even with your irrelevant stats, shouldn’t your wonder drug do better? That’s what you were promised.

They are not irrelevant stats - you can't include the total population in the stats vs deaths as they total population is not yet fully able to receive the vax; and 5-12 was only just made available, so you can't include that group - fairly - yet either.
Hence you are dealing with the percentage >=12 only at this time, giving Nationally 91.6%, and for NSW at 93.8%. That - unfortunately for you - is a FACT.
So the unvaxxed are dying at a rate ~3 times greater. Simple stats.

Btw, I wasn't "promised" anything - rather, I looked at the rates of death and sickness in other parts of the world - and here - and made a decision about the effectiveness of the vaccines available based on peer-reviewed data and opinions of people who have studied immunology their whole lives.

mikehunt207's picture
mikehunt207's picture
mikehunt207 Tuesday, 18 Jan 2022 at 11:13am

Wow Burleigh still fighting the good fight...
Saving us from ourselves with the same dumb points over and over .
Make sure you get advice from someone else if you are ever going to borrow money at % rates mate cause you dont seem to understand basic fractions (pandemic of the innumerate might be comment of the day @ Stok)
Why not post again about abusing kids with jabs or asking how well the vaccine works cause someone who was vaccinated died or got covid so it doesnt work ,you havent written that today , maybe share a facebook post from your yoga teacher or healing hands guru instead?
I,ve met some dumb queenslanders in the past but jeeze you,ve lowered that bar (maybe by 78%)
Keep it up legend

burleigh's picture
burleigh's picture
burleigh Tuesday, 18 Jan 2022 at 11:14am
gray wrote:
burleigh wrote:
gray wrote:
burleigh wrote:
gray wrote:
burleigh wrote:

Hey Vic,
17 deaths in NSW today - 14 fully vaccinated
7 deaths in QLD - 5 fully jabbed.

You seeing the beginning of the pattern yet?

Your jab doesn’t work

Make sure you check your maths / stats on this, burleigh: remember that 90%+ are vaxx, so the death rate at a numeric level cannot be directly compared between these two. Rather, you need to see the death rate per 100k or similar, for each group, vaxxed and non-vaxx. There's a name for this type of statistical comparison failure, but I can't remember it...who cares. The maths still stands and makes sense.

Also, not directed at you specifically, but I've also looked into Invermectin quite a bit and found nothing substantial to back the various claims of effectiveness against COVID. It is interesting to note the Merck statement on their own website about its use: https://www.merck.com/news/merck-statement-on-ivermectin-use-during-the-...
Go figure...people still want to take it after that? Why wouldn't Merck want to make money from it? Note also that Merck are still trying to develop their own COVID vaxx...so there's really no good reason for them to not want to market something in the meantime to make money (like all 'Big Pharma' does, right???).

Sorry mate but you’re wrong. Australia is around 78% fully vaccinated

Sorry mate, you're quoting figures for NSW and QLD, not ALL of Aus. Regardless, even if we look at >=12 2 doses, then you have 93% in NSW. So let's use that example to explain the stats here.

Let's say NSW had only 1m people >=12 yrs old (easier calcs for me), if 93% is double vaxxed then the population fully vaxxed is 930,000 (or so), and 70,000 not vaxxed.

If 17 people died, and 14 were fully vaxxed, 3 not, then:
Death Rates per 100k:
930k / 100k = 9.3, so death rate is 14 / 9.3 = 1.5 deaths per 100k
70k / 100k = 0.7, so death rate is 3 / 0.7 = 4.3 deaths per 100k

So you can see that when comparing like-for-like (per 100k population sets) for the two vastly DIFFERENT population sizes, you get just under 3 times the death rate for non-vaxxed.

Hope that helps you and any others still confused by this common statistical error.

Only relevant if they don’t include kids under 12 in covid stats, but they do. You can’t just leave out numbers to suit you.

Even with your irrelevant stats, shouldn’t your wonder drug do better? That’s what you were promised.

They are not irrelevant stats - you can't include the total population in the stats vs deaths as they total population is not yet fully able to receive the vax; and 5-12 was only just made available, so you can't include that group - fairly - yet either.
Hence you are dealing with the percentage >=12 only at this time, giving Nationally 91.6%, and for NSW at 93.8%. That - unfortunately for you - is a FACT.
So the unvaxxed are dying at a rate ~3 times greater. Simple stats.

Btw, I wasn't "promised" anything - rather, I looked at the rates of death and sickness in other parts of the world - and here - and made a decision about the effectiveness of the vaccines available based on peer-reviewed data and opinions of people who have studied immunology their whole lives.

33 out of 36 deaths today fully vaccinated in NSW. The whole week has been similar.

You still believe the narrative that the unvaxxed are taking up icu/hospitals?

It would appear it’s fast becoming a pandemic of the vaccinated

gray's picture
gray's picture
gray Tuesday, 18 Jan 2022 at 11:15am
burleigh wrote:

You guys are going to loose your shit over this:

NSW 36 deaths - 33 fully vaccinated.

How on earth are you muppets going to defend this one?

Haha! Still better statistically for vaxxed:

If 36 people died, and 33 were fully vaxxed, 3 not, then:
Death Rates per 100k:
930k / 100k = 9.3, so death rate is 33 / 9.3 = 3.6 deaths per 100k
70k / 100k = 0.7, so death rate is 3 / 0.7 = 4.3 deaths per 100k

Perhaps do the numbers yourself in future before you get too 'excited' about the daily stats.

burleigh's picture
burleigh's picture
burleigh Tuesday, 18 Jan 2022 at 11:17am
mikehunt207 wrote:

Wow Burleigh still fighting the good fight...
Saving us from ourselves with the same dumb points over and over .
Make sure you get advice from someone else if you are ever going to borrow money at % rates mate cause you dont seem to understand basic fractions (pandemic of the innumerate might be comment of the day @ Stok)
Why not post again about abusing kids with jabs or asking how well the vaccine works cause someone who was vaccinated died or got covid so it doesnt work ,you havent written that today , maybe share a facebook post from your yoga teacher or healing hands guru instead?
I,ve met some dumb queenslanders in the past but jeeze you,ve lowered that bar (maybe by 78%)
Keep it up legend

Ask the thousands of people with adverse reactions from your miracle juice or ask the families on the 33 out of 36 people that died fully vaccinated in NSW today.

Injecting kids with this experiment is child abuse. There I said it again for you

gray's picture
gray's picture
gray Tuesday, 18 Jan 2022 at 11:18am
burleigh wrote:
gray wrote:
burleigh wrote:
gray wrote:
burleigh wrote:
gray wrote:
burleigh wrote:

Hey Vic,
17 deaths in NSW today - 14 fully vaccinated
7 deaths in QLD - 5 fully jabbed.

You seeing the beginning of the pattern yet?

Your jab doesn’t work

Make sure you check your maths / stats on this, burleigh: remember that 90%+ are vaxx, so the death rate at a numeric level cannot be directly compared between these two. Rather, you need to see the death rate per 100k or similar, for each group, vaxxed and non-vaxx. There's a name for this type of statistical comparison failure, but I can't remember it...who cares. The maths still stands and makes sense.

Also, not directed at you specifically, but I've also looked into Invermectin quite a bit and found nothing substantial to back the various claims of effectiveness against COVID. It is interesting to note the Merck statement on their own website about its use: https://www.merck.com/news/merck-statement-on-ivermectin-use-during-the-...
Go figure...people still want to take it after that? Why wouldn't Merck want to make money from it? Note also that Merck are still trying to develop their own COVID vaxx...so there's really no good reason for them to not want to market something in the meantime to make money (like all 'Big Pharma' does, right???).

Sorry mate but you’re wrong. Australia is around 78% fully vaccinated

Sorry mate, you're quoting figures for NSW and QLD, not ALL of Aus. Regardless, even if we look at >=12 2 doses, then you have 93% in NSW. So let's use that example to explain the stats here.

Let's say NSW had only 1m people >=12 yrs old (easier calcs for me), if 93% is double vaxxed then the population fully vaxxed is 930,000 (or so), and 70,000 not vaxxed.

If 17 people died, and 14 were fully vaxxed, 3 not, then:
Death Rates per 100k:
930k / 100k = 9.3, so death rate is 14 / 9.3 = 1.5 deaths per 100k
70k / 100k = 0.7, so death rate is 3 / 0.7 = 4.3 deaths per 100k

So you can see that when comparing like-for-like (per 100k population sets) for the two vastly DIFFERENT population sizes, you get just under 3 times the death rate for non-vaxxed.

Hope that helps you and any others still confused by this common statistical error.

Only relevant if they don’t include kids under 12 in covid stats, but they do. You can’t just leave out numbers to suit you.

Even with your irrelevant stats, shouldn’t your wonder drug do better? That’s what you were promised.

They are not irrelevant stats - you can't include the total population in the stats vs deaths as they total population is not yet fully able to receive the vax; and 5-12 was only just made available, so you can't include that group - fairly - yet either.
Hence you are dealing with the percentage >=12 only at this time, giving Nationally 91.6%, and for NSW at 93.8%. That - unfortunately for you - is a FACT.
So the unvaxxed are dying at a rate ~3 times greater. Simple stats.

Btw, I wasn't "promised" anything - rather, I looked at the rates of death and sickness in other parts of the world - and here - and made a decision about the effectiveness of the vaccines available based on peer-reviewed data and opinions of people who have studied immunology their whole lives.

33 out of 36 deaths today fully vaccinated in NSW. The whole week has been similar.

You still believe the narrative that the unvaxxed are taking up icu/hospitals?

It would appear it’s fast becoming a pandemic of the vaccinated

I never said anything about unvaxxed taking up icu/hospitals, actually. However, now you mention it - you can see from the stats explained several times already that unvaxxed are taking up an 'unfair' share of the proportion of ICU/hospital space, based on their 7% (NSW) population.

gray's picture
gray's picture
gray Tuesday, 18 Jan 2022 at 11:20am
mikehunt207 wrote:

Wow Burleigh still fighting the good fight...
Saving us from ourselves with the same dumb points over and over .
Make sure you get advice from someone else if you are ever going to borrow money at % rates mate cause you dont seem to understand basic fractions (pandemic of the innumerate might be comment of the day @ Stok)
Why not post again about abusing kids with jabs or asking how well the vaccine works cause someone who was vaccinated died or got covid so it doesnt work ,you havent written that today , maybe share a facebook post from your yoga teacher or healing hands guru instead?
I,ve met some dumb queenslanders in the past but jeeze you,ve lowered that bar (maybe by 78%)
Keep it up legend

haha, yes...I think I might be at the point of giving up on the stats explanation to him now...you can lead a horse, and all that... ;-)

overthefalls's picture
overthefalls's picture
overthefalls Tuesday, 18 Jan 2022 at 11:24am

Is there a maths teacher out there who can explain the stats to Burleigh? Perhaps Eddie Woo might make the penny drop for him?

mikehunt207's picture
mikehunt207's picture
mikehunt207 Tuesday, 18 Jan 2022 at 11:32am
burleigh wrote:
mikehunt207 wrote:

Wow Burleigh still fighting the good fight...
Saving us from ourselves with the same dumb points over and over .
Make sure you get advice from someone else if you are ever going to borrow money at % rates mate cause you dont seem to understand basic fractions (pandemic of the innumerate might be comment of the day @ Stok)
Why not post again about abusing kids with jabs or asking how well the vaccine works cause someone who was vaccinated died or got covid so it doesnt work ,you havent written that today , maybe share a facebook post from your yoga teacher or healing hands guru instead?
I,ve met some dumb queenslanders in the past but jeeze you,ve lowered that bar (maybe by 78%)
Keep it up legend

Ask the thousands of people with adverse reactions from your miracle juice or ask the families on the 33 out of 36 people that died fully vaccinated in NSW today.

Injecting kids with this experiment is child abuse. There I said it again for you

Yeah thousands of people that got a head or body ache for a day or so .... fucking terrible

burleigh's picture
burleigh's picture
burleigh Tuesday, 18 Jan 2022 at 11:32am
mikehunt207 wrote:
burleigh wrote:
mikehunt207 wrote:

Wow Burleigh still fighting the good fight...
Saving us from ourselves with the same dumb points over and over .
Make sure you get advice from someone else if you are ever going to borrow money at % rates mate cause you dont seem to understand basic fractions (pandemic of the innumerate might be comment of the day @ Stok)
Why not post again about abusing kids with jabs or asking how well the vaccine works cause someone who was vaccinated died or got covid so it doesnt work ,you havent written that today , maybe share a facebook post from your yoga teacher or healing hands guru instead?
I,ve met some dumb queenslanders in the past but jeeze you,ve lowered that bar (maybe by 78%)
Keep it up legend

Ask the thousands of people with adverse reactions from your miracle juice or ask the families on the 33 out of 36 people that died fully vaccinated in NSW today.

Injecting kids with this experiment is child abuse. There I said it again for you

Yeah thousands of people that got a head or body ache for a day or so .... fucking terrible

Keep your head deep in that sandpit mate, only take it out to get your booster then let the world know how great you are.

Do it for your community.

Supafreak's picture
Supafreak's picture
Supafreak Tuesday, 18 Jan 2022 at 11:34am

Sorry to upset you again stok . Israeli study shows 4th shot of COVID-19 vaccine less effective on Omicron https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israeli-study-shows-4th-shot-c... https://globalnews.ca/news/8517877/covid-fourth-vaccine-dose-omicron-isr...