COVID-19 Health System Overload Forecaster

Craig's picture
Craig started the topic in Wednesday, 18 Mar 2020 at 7:44pm

I've created a spreadsheet forecast which I'll update as we go..

There's also a website with live running data.. https://sites.google.com/view/stayhomeaustralia

Stok's picture
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Stok Tuesday, 18 Jan 2022 at 4:09pm
Vic Local wrote:

"Look, I'll concede maybe the right wing, gun toting, Tucker Carlson/Candace Owens fans are laughing at Australia (in between, sadly, dying on covid) - but who really gives a fuck what they think."
The good news is, these fruitcakes have a tourism boycott going on Australia. Pity our nutters aren't fleeing Australia for some country that hasn't "fallen".
But in all seriousness this type of shit talk is dangerous. It encourages freedumb fighting loons to take matters into their own hands. Thank christ we have strong gun laws in Australia. The last thing we need is heavily armed cranks wanting to be heroes.

Hmmmm yeah actually, for all the talk about the freedumb fighters wanting to leave Victoria and Australia....how many actually have? I feel like they're still here.....most probably just ended up getting vaxxed and moved the fuck on with their lives, wondering what BS war out of nothing they'll decide to get angry about next.

And yes, silver lining, tourism boycott of said nutters.

burleigh's picture
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burleigh Tuesday, 18 Jan 2022 at 4:25pm
Stok wrote:
burleigh wrote:

Wow, what a load of dribble.

Hundreds of thousands of lives? Don’t let the truth get in the way of a good story Stok. Create fear in your mind and vomit it

Australia is the laughing stock of the rest of the world not the envy.

Look, I'll concede maybe the right wing, gun toting, Tucker Carlson/Candace Owens fans are laughing at Australia (in between, sadly, dying on covid) - but who really gives a fuck what they think.

But anyway, how's the maths homework going? Made it up to fractions yet? Or still on long division?

Swelllnet self proclaimed intellect didn’t mention his claim of “hundreds of thousands” deaths.
You want to prove this or is it all in your imagination?

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blindboy Tuesday, 18 Jan 2022 at 4:36pm

".......you ever stopped to wonder why the national pandemic preparedness plans , which do exist prior to covid, explicitly avoided and denounced lockdowns. "

Well no, not if you are referring to the influenza pandemic plans. Please post the relevant text to justify your assertion, with the link.

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Dx3 Tuesday, 18 Jan 2022 at 4:39pm
freeride76 wrote:

Lots of crew now around here have gone through Covid.
(including my own family)

This is anecdotal so take with grain of salt.

Vaxxed seems to be 2-3days of sickness, mostly very mild, total recovery no fatigue lingering.

Unvaxxed 6-10 days with lingering fatigue. Some crew still in Wk 4 complaining of symptoms.

My observations: vax seems to reduce disease burden.

These are all young, healthy people 18-55. (plus 12 year old boy)

Source: my obs plus brothers obs plus nurse mate at Byron Hospital.

Yep sounds pretty much bang on with all those I know who have caught it. No surprises it took 2 years for me to know more than 3-4 people who'd caught Covid, now I know 50+ who have in the last 4 weeks. Mostly mid 30's crew, some older some younger, including toddlers.

Of those 50 or so who've had it, only a small number (5-6) are unvaxxed and all of those unvaxxed except for 1 had a pretty rough 2 weeks and really struggled to shake it. The vaxxed said 1-3 days that felt like one of the worst flu's they've had, then just turned into a standard cold for about a week. Main issue was fatigue for up to 5 days.

Also worth noting that for all my mates who have little kids that caught it, the kids barely seemed impacted by it other than the sniffles/cough. Obviously none of them are vaxxed due to age.

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Roadkill Tuesday, 18 Jan 2022 at 4:40pm
sypkan wrote:

'And Sypkan a fascist? Hardly, but I think Vic you love to use that word so often It's become your go-to.'

yep

it's what the gender bending millenial and younger ip revolutionaries now do...

kinda creepy when an old dude does it though

an angry man old dude in lycra trying to mix it up with the yooth at the skatepark...

eewwwwwww!

My 16 yo daughter and her friends are the only other people I know who say, eewwwwww.

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Blowin Tuesday, 18 Jan 2022 at 4:48pm
burleigh wrote:
Stok wrote:
burleigh wrote:

Wow, what a load of dribble.

Hundreds of thousands of lives? Don’t let the truth get in the way of a good story Stok. Create fear in your mind and vomit it

Australia is the laughing stock of the rest of the world not the envy.

Look, I'll concede maybe the right wing, gun toting, Tucker Carlson/Candace Owens fans are laughing at Australia (in between, sadly, dying on covid) - but who really gives a fuck what they think.

But anyway, how's the maths homework going? Made it up to fractions yet? Or still on long division?

Swelllnet self proclaimed intellect didn’t mention his claim of “hundreds of thousands” deaths.
You want to prove this or is it all in your imagination?

Well the statistical geniuses on here have drawn a concrete conclusion that hospitalisation and fatality numbers of vaccinated and unvaccinated are clear illustration of cause and not correlation.

So I’m interested to hear their take on the Chief Health Officer saying that “generally “ the 33 out of 36 NSW vaccinated deaths today aren’t amongst the triple jabbed.

What?!?!

This sounds like language describing a slim minority ( at least ) being triple vaccinated!

Considering that only 26% of adults are triple jabbed, what does this statistical over representation tell us about the efficacy of the booster?

Not to mention what it does for Sicko Blindboy’s preferred statement that a “ triple vaccinated 80 year old faces equal risk as an unvaccinated teenager*”?

*Lol. That statement is the ultimate unsubstantiated piss take of all time. Multiple triple jabbed deaths in a single day probably exceeding the entire total of teenage deaths in the entire two years.

Lies, lies, lies.

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Blowin Tuesday, 18 Jan 2022 at 4:47pm

Sicko’s world view :

An 80 year old vaccinated person dies with covid :
“ Yeah, they had severe underlying health conditions. The vaccine isn’t perfect.”

An unvaccinated 80 year old person dies with covid ( also has severe underlying health conditions):
( Spittle flying everywhere) ……“They were unvaccinated!!!!!”

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velocityjohnno Tuesday, 18 Jan 2022 at 5:03pm

Party like it's 1992:

"“Consumer confidence readings are usually positive during the month of January and the level of 97.9 is the weakest January result since 1992, when the Australian economy was experiencing sharply rising unemployment,” Mr Plank said."

https://www.msn.com/en-au/money/news/confidence-tumbles-as-omicron-takes...

also on that page, we are free to travel, but:

"From November 1 fully vaccinated Australian citizens and permanent residents were allowed to travel to and from Australia without an exemption.

But ABS director of migration statistics Jenny Dobak said there are still far fewer border crossings than before the pandemic.

"In December 2019 there were 1.9 million overseas arrivals and 2.2 million overseas departures, 10 times larger than December 2021 volumes," she said."

10 times less travel. Out of interest, have any of you done an Indo trip since we have been allowed to go?

More jobs being posted on SEEK though.

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Roker Tuesday, 18 Jan 2022 at 5:11pm
adam12 wrote:

Sypkan, always talking in riddles.
Name names. The list, who makes it?
Names or it's boring.
Again.

You have to hand it to the sypkan. He’s really outdoing himself.

Over in the U.S. he's all aboard with the aristocrats, railing against the dividers and disuniters. The same dividers and disuniters who are advocating the extension and the protection of the franchise.

Back over here, sypkan's 'growing trees... to make a certain movable framework.'

sypkan: 'L'ami du peuple'!

It was the worst of times, it was the age of foolishness, it was the epoch of incredulity, it was the season of sypkan.

But before mass production of the tumbrils of the Revolution gets started - didn't Robespierre/sypkan end up on his own list?

And all this while he’s out there manning the barricades, fighting to put a stop to the things that threaten to provoke US style civil unrest here in Oz - like early voting, postal votes, and sausage sizzles at polling places.

Dunno about sypkan’s backstory. But he’s (she’s?) quite the creation and it’s quite the show.

He was a young anarchist. That’s canon.

Then maybe he read James Ellroy’s White Jazz, dug it, and transformed himself into a hepcat who converses in elliptical riffs. Maybe he liked how they did things in Ellroy’s rendering of fifties LA. Everyone was on the level, within strictly policed informal hierarchical boundaries. In this perverse conception of equality, there’s no room for division to develop. Sypkan hates division. It’s not a large jump from there to assume that he started to appreciate some facets of National Socialism. Then -ideologically confused and conflicted - he developed a profound cynicism, maybe it just crept up on him, and he descended into nihilism.

So I guess he’s an anarcho-syndicalist-nihilist-centrist - who just can’t quite bring himself to take a position.

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bluediamond Tuesday, 18 Jan 2022 at 5:17pm

Regardless of your take on pro vax or vax hesitant, there's a clear fracturing of society taking place at the moment. Every person you meet you have to ascertain in some way their stance on it so as to understand how their life is being affected.
Personally it's a minefield of dealing with an ever enclosing net of forced mandates.
I've never been a depressed person, normally pretty upbeat, but lifes pretty fucken depressing at the moment as the cliff approaches and the point of no return of being a complete outcast of society. I can still go to road houses, i can still go to the beach. I can still go to the supermarket.
I don't think it matters your stance on vax, i think it should be acknowledged there's alot of people suffering seriious mental, spiritual and financial hardships and heartache at the moment, and before you scream ANTIVAX, because of your own particular viewpoint, remember that it's not an easy choice for people to take a stand and say no. That's my 3cents worth anyway.

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blackers Tuesday, 18 Jan 2022 at 5:40pm

Roker, I reckon you could just cut and paste your description of VIC Local from a few days back (a la Emanuel Macron) for Sykpan. Ever thought they may be the same person, just 2 sides of a very confused coin?

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blindboy Tuesday, 18 Jan 2022 at 5:49pm

bd if you are feeling depressed it is important to talk to someone or to access professional help. You are right, it has been a very difficult period for a long time so it is no surprise that many people feel down. Take care of yourself.

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Robo Tuesday, 18 Jan 2022 at 5:51pm
wallpaper wrote:

Only a snivelling coward would refuse to get vaccinated.

only a bedwetter would

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Robo Tuesday, 18 Jan 2022 at 5:53pm
Vic Local wrote:

We're still waiting on your link to prove your complete and utter 3% bullshit statement blowin.
Putting up some meaningless graphic doesn't change the fact you lied about the percentage of unvaccinated people currently in ICU in NSW.
It's laughable that when your bullshit gets exposed for what it is, you don't put up your hand and admit it, you just pile more shit on top.
Like I said before, it's pathological with you mate.

still waiting on your proof from your Hillsong comment last week?

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Robo Tuesday, 18 Jan 2022 at 5:56pm
freeride76 wrote:

Lots of crew now around here have gone through Covid.
(including my own family)

This is anecdotal so take with grain of salt.

Vaxxed seems to be 2-3days of sickness, mostly very mild, total recovery no fatigue lingering.

Unvaxxed 6-10 days with lingering fatigue. Some crew still in Wk 4 complaining of symptoms.

My observations: vax seems to reduce disease burden.

These are all young, healthy people 18-55. (plus 12 year old boy)

Source: my obs plus brothers obs plus nurse mate at Byron Hospital.

What about the couple I know, one vaxed one not, the vaxed got really sick the unvaxed not.

Wait till we find what other things the vax will bring on long term, shingles is one short term, heard of 4 today.

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Roadkill Tuesday, 18 Jan 2022 at 6:10pm
Robo wrote:
freeride76 wrote:

Lots of crew now around here have gone through Covid.
(including my own family)

This is anecdotal so take with grain of salt.

Vaxxed seems to be 2-3days of sickness, mostly very mild, total recovery no fatigue lingering.

Unvaxxed 6-10 days with lingering fatigue. Some crew still in Wk 4 complaining of symptoms.

My observations: vax seems to reduce disease burden.

These are all young, healthy people 18-55. (plus 12 year old boy)

Source: my obs plus brothers obs plus nurse mate at Byron Hospital.

What about the couple I know, one vaxed one not, the vaxed got really sick the unvaxed not.

Wait till we find what other things the vax will bring on long term, shingles is one short term, heard of 4 today.

Wait till we find what other things the vax will bring on long term, shingles is one short term, heard of 4 today.

4 in one day…..man you make up stories.

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sypkan Tuesday, 18 Jan 2022 at 6:32pm
Roker wrote:
adam12 wrote:

Sypkan, always talking in riddles.
Name names. The list, who makes it?
Names or it's boring.
Again.

You have to hand it to the sypkan. He’s really outdoing himself.

Over in the U.S. he's all aboard with the aristocrats, railing against the dividers and disuniters. The same dividers and disuniters who are advocating the extension and the protection of the franchise.

Back over here, sypkan's 'growing trees... to make a certain movable framework.'

sypkan: 'L'ami du peuple'!

It was the worst of times, it was the age of foolishness, it was the epoch of incredulity, it was the season of sypkan.

But before mass production of the tumbrils of the Revolution gets started - didn't Robespierre/sypkan end up on his own list?

And all this while he’s out there manning the barricades, fighting to put a stop to the things that threaten to provoke US style civil unrest here in Oz - like early voting, postal votes, and sausage sizzles at polling places.

Dunno about sypkan’s backstory. But he’s (she’s?) quite the creation and it’s quite the show.

He was a young anarchist. That’s canon.

Then maybe he read James Ellroy’s White Jazz, dug it, and transformed himself into a hepcat who converses in elliptical riffs. Maybe he liked how they did things in Ellroy’s rendering of fifties LA. Everyone was on the level, within strictly policed informal hierarchical boundaries. In this perverse conception of equality, there’s no room for division to develop. Sypkan hates division. It’s not a large jump from there to assume that he started to appreciate some facets of National Socialism. Then -ideologically confused and conflicted - he developed a profound cynicism, maybe it just crept up on him, and he descended into nihilism.

So I guess he’s an anarcho-syndicalist-nihilist-centrist - who just can’t quite bring himself to take a position.

got me all worked out roker....

maybe... most of that I only vaguely know what you are on about...

but the last bit seems right

I'm dennis

(a non binary dennis... denise on saturday nights)

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sypkan Tuesday, 18 Jan 2022 at 6:27pm

just curious, is it not ok to think our whole political / media political class is corrupted almost beyond repair?

right across the spectrum?

do i really need to pick a side on every issue?

it's the system that is broken...

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GuySmiley Tuesday, 18 Jan 2022 at 7:15pm

Old mariner‘s saying - you can’t nail your balls to the mast if you don’t have any.

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burleigh Tuesday, 18 Jan 2022 at 7:22pm
sypkan wrote:

just curious, is it not ok to think our whole political / media political class is corrupted almost beyond repair?

right across the spectrum?

do i really need to pick a side on every issue?

it's the system that is broken...

Yep, it’s fucked up.

Give me Indo, they know they’re corrupt, they don’t really try and hide it, yet here is Aus, it’s all done with faceless men pulling the strings of our puppet politicians.

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Robo Tuesday, 18 Jan 2022 at 7:20pm
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Supafreak Tuesday, 18 Jan 2022 at 7:18pm

This Professor is not too happy with his government. Is he just another mad Professor gone of the rails ?………. Professor Ehud Qimron, head of Tel Aviv University’s Department of Microbiology and Immunology and one of the country’s leading immunologists, wrote an open letter harshly criticizing Israel’s – and global – handling of the coronavirus pandemic.
https://www.italy24news.com/health/337467.html
https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/health/health-problems/israeli-immunol...

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sypkan Tuesday, 18 Jan 2022 at 7:44pm
GuySmiley wrote:

Old mariner‘s saying - you can’t nail your balls to the mast if you don’t have any.

old sailors didn't have trump v biden as their options...

or morrison v albo / shorten for t hat matter...

Stok's picture
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Stok Tuesday, 18 Jan 2022 at 8:02pm
burleigh wrote:

Swelllnet self proclaimed intellect didn’t mention his claim of “hundreds of thousands” deaths.
You want to prove this or is it all in your imagination?

Look, unlike you I can admit that was probably an overstatement. 10s of thousands is more likely, based on comparing Aus to Florida. 100s of thousands hospitalised however. Luckily for you, despite the whinging about freedoms from the likes of you and Blowin, the adults who were in charge did not let that happen. You're like the spoilt rich brats who complain about not getting the right colour BMW for your 16th birthday.

Also, I'm no intellect, just someone who has the basic lifeskill of simple mathematics.

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sypkan Tuesday, 18 Jan 2022 at 8:08pm
Supafreak's picture
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Supafreak Tuesday, 18 Jan 2022 at 8:31pm

Bye Bye Collins , gone but not forgotten. https://t.co/IsFXMAEoAm

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andy-mac Tuesday, 18 Jan 2022 at 8:37pm

Fuck it. Be kind......

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bluediamond Tuesday, 18 Jan 2022 at 8:41pm

cheers BB. Got good friends around to bounce off. Feel for those less fortunate.

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Robo Tuesday, 18 Jan 2022 at 8:51pm
sypkan wrote:

about right...

https://www.theage.com.au/sport/tennis/dear-novak-here-s-why-australians...

Nah, more like tall poppy syndrome, he’s too good and knows it, we are big AO fans have never liked him, most don’t, the no vax push from the plebs was just to get rid of him cause most don’t like him anyway and they had to get to get jabbed and he hasn’t.
1000’s of Aussie’s that didn’t want to get jabbed have lost their jobs and incomes, why should he be allowed to come here and keep his.

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Robo Tuesday, 18 Jan 2022 at 9:10pm
bluediamond wrote:

Regardless of your take on pro vax or vax hesitant, there's a clear fracturing of society taking place at the moment. Every person you meet you have to ascertain in some way their stance on it so as to understand how their life is being affected.
Personally it's a minefield of dealing with an ever enclosing net of forced mandates.
I've never been a depressed person, normally pretty upbeat, but lifes pretty fucken depressing at the moment as the cliff approaches and the point of no return of being a complete outcast of society. I can still go to road houses, i can still go to the beach. I can still go to the supermarket.
I don't think it matters your stance on vax, i think it should be acknowledged there's alot of people suffering seriious mental, spiritual and financial hardships and heartache at the moment, and before you scream ANTIVAX, because of your own particular viewpoint, remember that it's not an easy choice for people to take a stand and say no. That's my 3cents worth anyway.

For sure, I can rattle off heaps we know have lost jobs in long time careers and just starting out, I am lucky I have run my own business for 30 years so answer to no one, we are just laying low socially to it blows over, don’t even want to waste money on a holiday with all the rules and nappy wearing.

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burleigh Tuesday, 18 Jan 2022 at 9:24pm
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sypkan Tuesday, 18 Jan 2022 at 9:35pm

not looking for a fight, or even a reply... but this post os all over the shop...

"Nah, more like tall poppy syndrome, he’s too good and knows it,"

what you call 'tall poppy syndrome', ...i call don't be a dickhead... (or boofhead...)

a unique element of the once egalitarian australia - and a bloody good one well worth preserving... most countries couldn't believe djokovic was 'detained' with the common visa breachers, in 'maggot infested rooms' (yeh sure whatever...) ..so much so the serbian prime minister pleaded for him to be moved... he wasn't... he was treated just the same as other visa breachers... not many places in the world that would happen... yay australia!!

"...we are big AO fans have never liked him, most don’t,"

so you want to get rid of him because you don't like him? ....not very sporting of you... not very egalitarian... not very anything, except miserable...

"... the no vax push from the plebs was just to get rid of him cause most don’t like him anyway and they had to get to get jabbed and he hasn’t."

is that fair enough?

...they had to get vaccinated - possibly reluctantly - so so should he? ...sounds fair to me...

"...1000’s of Aussie’s that didn’t want to get jabbed have lost their jobs and incomes, why should he be allowed to come here and keep his.""

well yes, I totally agree

do you? ...it's not very clear....

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sypkan Tuesday, 18 Jan 2022 at 10:12pm

once again, I don't give a shit if you reply or not.. but this got my attention...

"...don’t even want to waste money on a holiday with all the rules and nappy wearing."

I agree re. the rules, but it puzzles me beyond belief the problem some people have with face masks... to me, they're one of the few things that make perfect sense, especially whilst travelling...

from my observations, it's quite often a weird personality disorder that makes people averse to wearing masks. that vid at the toowoomba pub showed it quite well, as some weirdo went into some massive spiel about CO2 levels, and a heap of other ridiculous hair splitting ramblings, to justify their anti mask position....

and from what I can gather, its often just weird ocd type people, who cannot handle something on their face, making up all sorts of bullshit to justify their weirdness

or dudes on some weird christian bent... there's a lot of that... with the well worn lines getting around...

same with vaccinations, I often wonder how many people who are anti the vaccine are just people scared of needles, cooking up all sorts of reasons not to go there

my old man was scared of needles, so I get it, but it's totally irrational, be much better if people were just honest about their positions...

gawd knows there's enough bullshit flying around....

not having a go robo, just observations

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Stok Tuesday, 18 Jan 2022 at 10:26pm
burleigh wrote:

https://www.instagram.com/primodofficial/p/CY3g2IFBVmN/?utm_medium=copy_...

Har har....har
What a hot take.
Wow, my mind is blown.

Actually, is that your personal account burleigh? The quality of content there seems like the sort of shit you'd dream up.

Anyway.....imagine what it would be like to watch idiots claiming they eat well, are fit and healthy, as such trust their own immune system with chlamydia.

And then some of them organising chlamydia parties....

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Supafreak Wednesday, 19 Jan 2022 at 6:03am

Hong Kong to kill 2,000 animals after hamsters get COVID-19. https://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireStory/hong-kong-arrests-air-crew-break...

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indo-dreaming Wednesday, 19 Jan 2022 at 9:39am

Bump: Was getting a bit low on the front page.

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Stok Wednesday, 19 Jan 2022 at 10:08am
indo-dreaming wrote:

Bump: Was getting a bit low on the front page.

Yeah, hopefully everyone's scheduled in an hour or so to post misleading opinion pieces about a subject they have no experience or capabilities in.

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burleigh Wednesday, 19 Jan 2022 at 11:02am

From my surf chats the last couple of days its clear Covid has ripped through the Goldy. Most people (jabbed or not) seemed to have 2 - 3 days, then a few days of recovery.

The biggest issue is people believe the vaccine did not work and will not be lining back up for their third jab. Mostly people 25 - 35 age bracket.

There is going to be a real issue with the government meeting their jab targets, especially now SO many people have had covid.

The governments promise of minimising transmission is going to come back and bite them.

We all know the government has bought enough jabs to vaccinate to population 6 times over, so brace yourselves for the PUSH to get boostered.

Mandating boosters is going to cause a huge divide, I do believe it’s coming, I also believe the fight back will be large

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Supafreak Wednesday, 19 Jan 2022 at 11:28am

How things have changed , hope Indonesia doesn’t ban us . https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jan/18/covid-19-cdc-travel-warnin...

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Robo Wednesday, 19 Jan 2022 at 12:04pm
burleigh wrote:

From my surf chats the last couple of days its clear Covid has ripped through the Goldy. Most people (jabbed or not) seemed to have 2 - 3 days, then a few days of recovery.

The biggest issue is people believe the vaccine did not work and will not be lining back up for their third jab. Mostly people 25 - 35 age bracket.

There is going to be a real issue with the government meeting their jab targets, especially now SO many people have had covid.

The governments promise of minimising transmission is going to come back and bite them.

We all know the government has bought enough jabs to vaccinate to population 6 times over, so brace yourselves for the PUSH to get boostered.

Already started, booster approved for kids and 4th for adults with immune issues.

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indo-dreaming Wednesday, 19 Jan 2022 at 12:09pm

I know it's still early but it looks like Aust & USA have peaked, if follow similar patterns to UK & South Africa.

Same with USA

UK

South Africa

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Craig Wednesday, 19 Jan 2022 at 12:13pm

Yep, looks like we have peaked.

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Supafreak Wednesday, 19 Jan 2022 at 12:23pm
blindboy wrote:

lostdoggy, technically it will remain a pandemic. The use of epidemic as discussed below, is to distinguish it from endemic. What is being suggested is that we will continue to have epidemics of various sizes for the forseeable future. This means that we have to get back to effective ttq as soon as possible to limit their size and frequency.

"Denial of the science of epidemiology is widespread, even among “experts”. We are told repeatedly that SARS-CoV-2 will become “endemic”. But it will never be endemic because it is an epidemic disease and always will be. The key difference is spread. As an epidemic disease, SARS-CoV-2 will always find the unvaccinated, undervaccinated or people with waning immunity and spread rapidly in those groups. Typically, true epidemic infections are spread from person to person, the worst being airborne transmission, and display a waxing and waning pattern such as we have already seen with multiple waves of SARS-CoV-2. Cases rise rapidly over days or weeks, as we have seen with Alpha, Delta and Omicron. No truly endemic disease – malaria, for example – does this."
https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/opinion/topic/2022/01/15/why-covid-1...

BB , do you still believe this view given that more and more ‘ experts ‘ are saying it will become endemic ? I’m in two minds now only because Lord Fauci has said it will become endemic. https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2022/01/18/1073802...

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Roadkill Wednesday, 19 Jan 2022 at 12:32pm

fingers crossed we keep heading in the right direction.

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Stok Wednesday, 19 Jan 2022 at 12:36pm

The 'peak' is probably just due to our testing capacity being maxed out weeks ago, and significant relaxation of contact tracing/testing requirements.

Anyone got a hospitalisation chart?

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Sheepdog Wednesday, 19 Jan 2022 at 12:48pm
Craig wrote:

Yep, looks like we have peaked.

I'd be careful comparing delta graphs to Omicron. Brad #CovidHazzard stated "everyone will get omicron". With that in mind, AND kids soon to go back to school, I expect a plateau instead of a peak. In fact, I expect a massive tableland, with cases extremely high for weeks

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blindboy's picture
blindboy Wednesday, 19 Jan 2022 at 12:51pm

supa, I don't have a view on that. I quoted one expert opinion....others disagree so I will leave it to them to sort out the semantics. I don't think there is any fundamental difference of opinion about how it is likely to develop. There seems general agreement that it will remain in circulation and cause spikes in infection opportunistically. That said, the reality is we really don't know where things will go from here. Locally, schools will open up soon but seem poorly prepared. Then we have winter to deal with.
I came across this research on animal reservoirs. I have wondered for a while now, since it had so many new mutations, if Omicron had passed through another species before jumping back into humans. I haven't seen it discussed anywhere but it seems possible.
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34460063/

Supafreak's picture
Supafreak's picture
Supafreak Wednesday, 19 Jan 2022 at 1:04pm
blindboy wrote:

supa, I don't have a view on that. I quoted one expert opinion....others disagree so I will leave it to them to sort out the semantics. I don't think there is any fundamental difference of opinion about how it is likely to develop. There seems general agreement that it will remain in circulation and cause spikes in infection opportunistically. That said, the reality is we really don't know where things will go from here. Locally, schools will open up soon but seem poorly prepared. Then we have winter to deal with.
I came across this research on animal reservoirs. I have wondered for a while now, since it had so many new mutations, if Omicron had passed through another species before jumping back into humans. I haven't seen it discussed anywhere but it seems possible.
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34460063/

Didn’t indo put up some links in regards to that ? Mice wasn’t it ? I must’ve misinterpreted when you posted “ blindboy wrote:
lostdoggy, technically it will remain a pandemic. “

Hiccups's picture
Hiccups's picture
Hiccups Wednesday, 19 Jan 2022 at 1:01pm

I hope it gets worse.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Wednesday, 19 Jan 2022 at 1:21pm

I'm not tracking it super closely but Gerg (stats guru) has nailed every part of this pandemic and called it a couple of weeks ago..

From Dec 31 (read full conversation)..

And an update