COVID-19 Health System Overload Forecaster

Craig's picture
Craig started the topic in Wednesday, 18 Mar 2020 at 7:44pm

I've created a spreadsheet forecast which I'll update as we go..

There's also a website with live running data.. https://sites.google.com/view/stayhomeaustralia

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local commented Wednesday, 24 Jun 2020 at 9:43pm

I'm tipping Dr Swan has more expertise in the field than Indo-Dreaming or the Liberal Party MPs Indo is getting his lines from.

"angry online, smiley in the brine"

shortenism's picture
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shortenism commented Thursday, 25 Jun 2020 at 10:49am

C’mon Vic and Indo, you guys still shootin and tootin… This supposed COVID virus is so selective. Doesn’t spread at Westfield’s or Bunnings but def at protests or family gatherings.. Def spreads via cash but not takeaway coffee cups… Remember back in March (4 months ago) we/I was on here referencing the language of politics around this ‘the invisible war’, ‘the new normal’ rah rah. It was pre-determined before it even happened. Predictably the army has now been deployed. It’s been so predictable form the start its laughable. Fella’s face it your leaders have lost the plot. It’s cases of re-categorised seasonal flu, many doctors and experts have sighted this, there is no burden on our ICU, there is ~103 deaths with most dying of other complications… And we have a population of ~26,000,000. Look at the testing accuracy.. Positive, Negative, positive again.. You have been scammed, you are being scammed. Norman Swan is a puppet of the pharmaceutical industry and media, who gets too much air time. He’ll tell you all day long that this is a great pandemic and life can only go 'back to normal' when we get a vaccine. It’s a fairly easy strategy from here, just keep people on edge making things seem uncertain, difficult and complex.. You wear us all down until we beg for no more and wanting to go back to normal and then wham roll out the injections..
Any person in their right mind would say opening and closing the country, putting 80% of news media into cases of the flu or on car crash injuries and deaths would be absurd? How is this any different? It aint.

shortenism's picture
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shortenism commented Thursday, 25 Jun 2020 at 2:01pm

& hows the updated spreadsheet thing going Craig?

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local commented Thursday, 25 Jun 2020 at 2:41pm

"& hows the updated spreadsheet thing going Craig?"
Seriously shortenism, why do you care? You think Covid 19 is a hoax, and no amount of facts and figures is going to convince you it's not.

"angry online, smiley in the brine"

shortenism's picture
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shortenism commented Thursday, 25 Jun 2020 at 3:35pm

Always open to facts Vic, which is how I've landed at Covid being a hoax. I had a rare 5 minutes so clicked on Craig's link to his spreadsheet for the first time. It immediately loaded the same upward swing 'breaking point' graphs but on closer inspection it appears to be abandoned...

indo-dreaming's picture
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indo-dreaming commented Thursday, 25 Jun 2020 at 3:47pm

A pretty deadly hoax.

And a hoax government are willing to take action against and destroy economy's over ?

If it was such a hoax why wouldn't some countries say, argh its just a hoax we are going to keep living as we normally do, you will see, we wont be affected, we are not going to destroy our economies.

IMHO Your view would only be changed if you caught Covid-19 and ended up in hospital fighting for your life.

Please Stunet give me an ignore button for Talking Turkey, Shatners Basoon, Dale Cooper, Factotum, Pupkin, and any new fake profile he decides to create.

shortenism's picture
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shortenism commented Thursday, 25 Jun 2020 at 4:08pm

I guess individual country policy is now fairly well stitched up by global influences Indo, so even if you didn't agree as an individual or party you would be ousted / shamed very quickly.. Even a cough in a community would be pinned on you by the media (who really drives the agenda). So from that perspective I sympathize with all the leaders who are looking at this for what it is but are being carried by the media and the sheep feeding on the fear begging for lockdown's, the army and vaccines to 'save them' against this invisible army. Sure Indo re me catching it but I know that ain't gonna happen and like sharks and surfing, the thought of it certainly aint gonna stop me living and neither should it anyone.

Vic Local's picture
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Vic Local commented Thursday, 25 Jun 2020 at 4:31pm

So if Covid 19 is a hoax, what exactly are all those people dying of? or are they "crisis actors"?
Are all the doctors in on the act too? and those mass graves in Brazil, are they part of the hoax as well?
Please also let us know how Soros and Gates are in on this.

"angry online, smiley in the brine"

JQ's picture
JQ's picture
JQ commented Thursday, 25 Jun 2020 at 4:39pm

Shortenism, you're open to facts? Nonsense. You've shown exactly the opposite, you're neck deep in conspiracy theories with a completely closed (and empty) mind.

shoredump's picture
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shoredump commented Thursday, 25 Jun 2020 at 6:33pm

I think these are the facts Shortenism is alluding too

Now as we are open to facts at the moment, let’s look at some more
https://www.google.com.au/amp/s/amp.abc.net.au/article/12146616

New Zealand looks nice anyway right...

All I’ll concede, is the biggest concerted effort in history may give us a result yet

Good luck, I do love your go for broke gambling spirit

truebluebasher's picture
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truebluebasher commented Thursday, 25 Jun 2020 at 7:01pm

12th June [ Backtrack ] saltyone "Aghh this makes my blood boil!"
Top 25 Billionaires profiting from Covid
https://www.forbes.com/sites/jonathanponciano/2020/05/22/billionaires-zu...

These Coronavirus Profits are the largest & fastest of any era of World Economy.
10-35% in 2 months= 50% -200% / year profit for all Top 25 wealthiest.

4th April tbb re: [US Stock Clock Stopper] Extra 2 US Millionaires / minute.

Fuck Space / Fuck 'IT' & you can Fuck that off too...whatever it is yer thinking of!
[ Lockdowns are the next Boom industry ]

[News] CEO's map out World's Future..."That's just a home shopping docket!" Durr!

shortenism's picture
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shortenism commented Friday, 26 Jun 2020 at 2:42pm

Yeah JQ it really is neck deep and some, and you aint even got your big toe in the water. Your letting the car-park gossip crew get to you ya. They're, telling you its too big and out of your league but stop listening to them. Yep its big out here but you'll be ok..

thermalben's picture
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thermalben commented Friday, 26 Jun 2020 at 3:27pm

Dale -Cooper's picture
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Dale -Cooper commented Friday, 26 Jun 2020 at 3:39pm

As Cosmo Kramer once said, "They're out there, and loving every minute of it"!

“The dog leg. That dog had four legs. One you found in my trunk. The other three went out with the information you're thinking about right now. Two people you don't want coming around here if anything bad happens to me.”

garyg1412's picture
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garyg1412 commented Friday, 26 Jun 2020 at 4:02pm

Must be something in the water supply over there.

Stok's picture
Stok's picture
Stok commented Friday, 26 Jun 2020 at 4:26pm

How do these people get given any attention at all?

Fliplid's picture
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Fliplid commented Friday, 26 Jun 2020 at 5:19pm

It’s all very funny until you realise there are people running this country with a similar mind set

GuySmiley's picture
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GuySmiley commented Friday, 26 Jun 2020 at 5:35pm

You can't argue with stupid in North America's case fracking stupid dumb arse yokels.

JQ's picture
JQ's picture
JQ commented Friday, 26 Jun 2020 at 10:31pm

Wow, that is impressive levels of stupidity, even for the US.

views from the cockpit's picture
views from the cockpit's picture
views from the ... commented Saturday, 27 Jun 2020 at 4:52am

Ha -but young ones in on it too sadly.
Pile all those nutters up into a ship and send it to the Middle East to debate "God"
I would live to see how that would go down...

truebluebasher's picture
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truebluebasher commented Saturday, 27 Jun 2020 at 2:14pm

Just seen July 2015 Bill Gates UK patent office doc for [Coronavirus] [Vaccine].
My mate's got insiderz > sent rare Patent copy to Oz Govt & Media ....no replies.
Note: He's an old bloke & not a social media hack...this is not a random download.
He also protects his sources...Ok! So he brags about ASIO contacts...you got it!

Looked real enough & he informed Govt as if it were real enough.
Perhaps there is a Fake Patent doc site that spits them out?
Only that a Bill Gates Major Patent Doc Hoax would go viral...So where is it then?
So maybe it is the real deal...just saying...Anyone calling this out as a Hoax!

thermalben's picture
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thermalben commented Saturday, 27 Jun 2020 at 3:39pm

I haven't seen any documentation around Bill Gates' supposed Coronavirus patent, but why it is so surprising? Coronaviruses were first discovered in the 1930s. There’s been a lot of work to understand and eradicate them since.

Here’s a sentence to consider:

“Are Dutch scientists hampering the fight against a lethal new coronavirus by patenting the virus and making it needlessly difficult for other scientists to study it?”

Date? May, 2013.

Source: https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2013/05/outbreak-continues-confusion-rei...

morg's picture
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morg commented Saturday, 27 Jun 2020 at 8:22pm

Seems fundamentally wrong that you can patent or claim IP on something that you find or identify first that actually just exists. Maybe it can be justified if you modified, or made something else from it, but not if it was simply a thing which exists and occurs in nature. Particularly if the IP slows or restricts potential progress.

Westofthelake's picture
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Westofthelake commented Saturday, 27 Jun 2020 at 8:57pm

Meanwhile in the US it continues to lead the world....

Texas and Florida have clamped down on bars again in the biggest retreat yet amid a surge across the south and west that sent the number of confirmed new coronavirus infections per day in the US to an all-time high of 40,000.

Texas Governor Greg Abbott ordered all bars closed, while Florida banned alcohol consumption at all such establishments. Together the two states joined the small but growing list of those that are either backtracking or putting any further reopenings of their economies on hold because of a comeback by the virus.

Texas, meanwhile, reported more than 17,000 confirmed new cases in the past three days, with a record high of nearly 6000 on Thursday. The day's tally of more than 4700 hospitalisations was also a record.

4700 is a huge amount of daily admissions. Surely. So that means about 35000 people admitted to hospitalisation in one week. Out of control.

https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/new-coronavirus-cases-hit-an-...

Westofthelake's picture
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Westofthelake commented Saturday, 27 Jun 2020 at 9:23pm

I can't say I've fact-checked the below but it does point to a possible reason why Victoria has increased cases.

"The results for Australia on COVID-19 are stunningly better than anywhere else. Ironically Victoria – whose premier imposed the most draconian rules, which included strict limits on where you could go and seeing close relatives – has chosen not to enforce testing for the virus. A third of returned people have refused when asked. This reluctance, unseen elsewhere across Aust, has increased case numbers and the risk to everyone else. Why? Human rights? More cases might be a deflection on a state corruption inquiry? Something stinks. Consider this: if you refuse breath or drug testing on our roads you’ll be prosecuted no questions asked! Any govt refusing to enforce COVID testing is irresponsible and can slow down the national strategy to reopen the economy. The fact SA had to send health officials to Victoria suggests their health bureaucracy are somehow deficient in handling the pandemic. This latest revelation tells us there’s some unclear muddled reasoning which has transcended public safety. Victoria… pull your finger out!"

Not real sure about the above due to "Under the border restrictions agreed to by National Cabinet, people returning to Australia have to quarantine for 14 days in whichever city they land.", and
"What is happening when I arrive in Australia?
You will be transported from the air or sea port to designated accommodation in your city of arrival,
where you will be required to quarantine for 14 days. After this precautionary quarantine period you
can transit domestically and travel home.
You may be required to undergo enhanced health screening on arrival in Australia."

From what I can see there is no mention of mandatory testing, nor is it a legal requirement to get a test if you return from overseas.

truebluebasher's picture
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truebluebasher commented Sunday, 28 Jun 2020 at 7:03am

Just clarifying this was not a Patent Doc for discovery of one of many Coronaviruses.
This Patent Doc was most notably & clearly spelt out for a Coronavirus "VACCINE"

thermalben's picture
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thermalben commented Sunday, 28 Jun 2020 at 7:30am

OK, in the space of thirty seconds, I Googled coronavirus vaccine patent history.

First link: https://patents.google.com/patent/EP3172319B1/en

Shows a patent first listed with the European Patent Office in July 2014.

"The present invention also relates to the use of such a coronavirus in a vaccine to prevent and/or treat a disease."

For even more info, check this listing of US patents containing the words coronavirus and vaccine

Fliplid's picture
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Fliplid commented Sunday, 28 Jun 2020 at 7:57am

“Consider this: if you refuse breath or drug testing on our roads you’ll be prosecuted no questions asked! Any govt refusing to enforce COVID testing is irresponsible”

This situation was part of a news report I saw last night and the Victorian government is getting advice about the legality of forcing people to be tested so there must be a grey area around making people take the test.

Not too sure about the statement in the quote posted about the failure of testing being the cause of the current rise in cases because the new transmissions are occurring in the community and in workplaces while the people refusing to be tested are still in hotel quarantine.

Goes to show that you can’t please everyone, when the Victorian government put in place restrictions it was criticised for being a dictatorship, now they are being told they are inept for not forcing people to be tested against their will.

As an aside, but related, I just saw for the first time an LNP ad for the upcoming Qld election. It has the same graphics used for the campaign against Shorten. This time the tag lines are, Closed Borders, Ruining the economy and Wrong Choices. The idea of co-operative politics is well and truly a myth in Qld

GuySmiley's picture
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GuySmiley commented Sunday, 28 Jun 2020 at 8:43am

Creating fear and division wins votes - it’s always someone else’s fault and when it’s not well that’s fake news. Politics 101 for the right.

Distracted's picture
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Distracted commented Sunday, 28 Jun 2020 at 9:10am

If Victoria is serious about getting this outbreak under control can’t see how they can do it unless they go full lockdown.

shoredump's picture
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shoredump commented Sunday, 28 Jun 2020 at 9:51am

Sounds reasonable, let’s just build a wall around them and lock them in for 12 months, I’d be happy with that.

In all seriousness, I don’t think you can just keep going into lockdown every time there’s an outbreak. You keep doing that then you end up closing every second business. It’s not going to go away without a vaccine

Robo's picture
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Robo commented Sunday, 28 Jun 2020 at 9:57am

Can't be too serious or they wouldn't be letting people fly from Melbourne into Sydney.

GuySmiley's picture
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GuySmiley commented Sunday, 28 Jun 2020 at 10:11am

Not sure what’s happening elsewhere but I was on the surf coast all week, came home yesterday. Shop keepers all nervous as very few people are socially distancing, using provided hand sanitiser etc. The fact there aren’t more cases is all good luck .... but it’s all Dan Andrews fault.

shoredump's picture
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shoredump commented Sunday, 28 Jun 2020 at 10:21am

We might have been in with half a chance to keep numbers low if we kept tight with social distancing. It’s happening up here too, everyone is too relaxed with it thinking the war has been won

Stok's picture
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Stok commented Sunday, 28 Jun 2020 at 3:07pm

Quite frustrating watching the media have a field day on this.

More cases...more clicks. 24 hour updates, photos of grimacing pollies - words such as 'concern' 'outbreak' 'cluster'.

The reality is the curve is flat, the health system barely flinched, and localised outbreaks are part of Australia's plan.

Also - anyone else feel the reporting of repeated panic buying, and limiting customer purchases is a perfect ploy by Coles and WW to continue to dig profits out of this?

velocityjohnno's picture
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velocityjohnno commented Sunday, 28 Jun 2020 at 4:08pm

Stok can confirm via Ms that pantene hair shampoo $7 at half price before, $14 normal, $17 now. (Salt water way cheaper). She also mentioned a 30% shopping increase in Vic, 45% in WA from some article.

GS - keeping head down here on the coast, did go for a surf and noticed heaps of traffic, people walking generally distancing well. I have no idea what it's like for businesses though. A lot of people watching from the clifftops, just chilling watching the surfers & ocean. A highlight was seeing a really sweetly done up classic car of a variety I like.

A recent trip into G town (first time in ages) revealed people behaving quite normally, but the overall volume of traffic/trade was more like 10 years ago. Pako st was nuts for cars, as before. Lines waiting for public transport - how do people distance in that situation?

Medics are probably quite concerned, heavily testing areas where outbreaks are has been shown to work overseas. If Flinders St station employees have it... good luck to identifying the areas before they pop up.

shoredump's picture
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shoredump commented Tuesday, 30 Jun 2020 at 6:58pm

Stok's picture
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Stok commented Tuesday, 30 Jun 2020 at 8:24pm

There's literally nothing stopping another black swan event from rolling in without warning.

Of course, there's nothing stopping a vaccine being developed and life turning back to normal.

shortenism's picture
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shortenism commented Wednesday, 1 Jul 2020 at 11:27am

Keep an eye on 'The Great Reset' being sprouted by the 'World Economic Forum'. Sounds great and most would agree this thinking is necessary and a positive for the planet and society. However, what's really interesting is that The Great Reset shows up with COVID19 as the key trigger. This begs the question what came first COVID19 or the Great Reset.. As I've always suggested on here COVID19 is engineered to exist to facilitate the roll in of a new world order. The introduction of 'the great reset' at this time is no coincidence and will further this agenda.. There is a lot of mention in this plan around global systems, AI and other technology responses. Watch it like a hawk with a telescope https://www.weforum.org/great-reset/

truebluebasher's picture
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truebluebasher commented Wednesday, 1 Jul 2020 at 4:48pm

Post Covid in tbb's neighbourhood sees more Fences + Walls + property sales.
Lot's more Stickers...you all know the ones + Supermarket has Screens.
Council painted yellow lines on Church / Schools > Their flock [P] in front of ours now.
Bike lanes that end before they begin.

Maccas / Hungry Jacks won't use cash...guilt trip us now!
Shops now reserve premium [P] for invisible slack arse Click'n'Collect
Regulars now got car park rage & cue forever as Staff pander to cute Ebay Sloths.
Online shoppers are not disabled nor need prams so Why Gold Service + #1 [P]
Prime car spaces vacated all day in front of each store...reserved for Yuppies?
(This is the next WAR) People are gonna lose it over these Yuppie Amazonians.
Count tbb in as troop leader...Covid digital bias sees idle rich overlord the disabled.

Burleigh WSR bombsite is being partitioned off for Whiteshoe Timeshare Trolley
Eye candy scenery of next level [P] sensors blot the WSR seascape.
Resembles Dutto's Christmas Island Resort.

Govt [M1] upgrade comes with variable Speed Signs for (50% extra cams/revenue)
1km of our Town's Entry trees removed for Govt [ M1 ] Lib style Job Tally Banner.
Govt did away with all previous Reedy Creek directional Signage ?
Council refuse a welcome Sign for our town not even a Generic Suburb sign .

Post Covid Council & Govt see our town as a revenue base or more Banner space.
Nothing whatsoever in the way of inclusion just more denial of our existence.

OZ #1 infrastructure Bne -GC Airail ( Finish 2016 [On hold] > > 2038 > > 30 _ _ )
That gives other states a behind the times look into SEQ economic performance.
Visitors, Locals, Commuters are common muck on Jewish Govt's White Shoe Line.

shortenism's picture
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shortenism commented Wednesday, 1 Jul 2020 at 2:54pm

shoredump's comment = 'It’s not going to go away without a vaccine'. Ppl take note, this is a perfect example of how societal programming / conditioning works. Don't listen to it.

Vic Local's picture
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Vic Local commented Wednesday, 1 Jul 2020 at 3:01pm

Quick poll. Does anyone here believe Shortenism's bullshit about Covid 19 being a hoax?

"angry online, smiley in the brine"

Spuddups's picture
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Spuddups commented Wednesday, 1 Jul 2020 at 3:47pm

I believe that people like Shortism need to read more books. Books by scholarly experts in their fields, containing peer reviewed science, employing good scientific method. That is a good basis for an informed opinion. If you don’t read books and tend to rely on the internet for your information then all bets are off. You can basically find something on the internet that agrees with any position you care to take.

troppo dichotomy's picture
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troppo dichotomy commented Wednesday, 1 Jul 2020 at 3:57pm

A friend of mine about 3-4years ago started talking non stop about financial doom and gloom was coming.He was claiming 'they're' going to run all currencies into the ground,new world order,crypto,etc.He ran out and turned all his money into physical gold.
It was nothing new to me as my uncle been saying the same stuff 25years ago.I invested in gold 20years ago and did good through the GFC.
Since then I reinvested everything into sex,drugs and rock n roll and the occasional wave.So stoked!Priceless.
This 'Reset' has been talked about for a long time.
My crazy friend and uncle just might be right?Time will tell.

shortenism's picture
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shortenism commented Wednesday, 1 Jul 2020 at 4:02pm

Get the stake, oil and a match ready fellas... But who of you would be the one to light it...? My guess is you would all stand round in the 3rd row and watch. But that's probably wrong like everything else I've written on here.

JQ's picture
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JQ commented Wednesday, 1 Jul 2020 at 4:03pm

Nope, don't believe it for a microsecond - I'm with Spuddups.

shortenism's picture
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shortenism commented Wednesday, 1 Jul 2020 at 4:13pm

yeah troppo, there's been talk for a long time about this 'reset' and 2020 kept coming up... and.... Here we are. I made quite a few decisions leading up to this and feel like I was divinely handed a gift. I'm realising that gift was an open mind and set of ears.

shoredump's picture
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shoredump commented Wednesday, 1 Jul 2020 at 4:16pm

Not at all VL. It could have been handled differently, but no, not a hoax.
You’re right in a sense Shorty, the spanish flu died out on its own, so here’s hoping. I think what will happen is that a combination of semi successful drugs, and time, will see us open borders and get on with it, accepting the collateral damage that it brings. Can’t stay in cotton wool forever right?

troppo dichotomy's picture
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troppo dichotomy commented Wednesday, 1 Jul 2020 at 4:25pm

Yes keep an open mind.
Question the conspiracies?
Question authority?
Question everything!

shortenism's picture
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shortenism commented Wednesday, 1 Jul 2020 at 4:25pm

But where did the spanish flu come from Shorey?