Fun Sunday, large Monday, great Tuesday

Craig Brokensha picture
Craig Brokensha (Craig)

Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 31st July)

Best Days: Experiecned surfers only Sunday Surf Coast, early Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday morning, early Thursday and Friday


Strong and good SW groundswell yesterday morning in the 3-4ft+ range across the Surf Coast with offshore winds (a touch north early) and 6ft+ surf on the Mornington Peninsula.

Today a new W/SW swell kept 3ft+ waves on the Surf Coast and 5-6ft sets on the Mornington Peninsula but with a W/NW breeze, favouring protected spots west of Melbourne.

This weekend and next week (Aug 1 Aug 7)

Tomorrow morning will be the smallest the surf's expected to be for the about a week.

We've got a strong new increase in W/SW groundswell due through the day, building from the 3ft range on the Surf Coast and 6ft on the Mornington Peninsula to 4-5ft later in the day and 8ft respectively. A peak is due Sunday morning to 4-6ft on the Surf Coast and 8ft on the Mornington Peninsula, easing through the day.

Late in the day, a stronger new pulse of SW groundswell is due, with a secondary frontal system firing up on the back of the initial front linked to our first WSW swell, but the fetch strength has been downgraded a touch.

Still, an elongated fetch of W/SW-SW gales will be aimed through our south-western swell window Saturday, with a secondary burst Sunday, generating a large and powerful SW groundswell for Monday. This swell should show late Sunday though and pulse to the 6ft range on the Surf Coast and 8ft+ on the Mornington Peninsula before peaking during the day Monday to 8ft across most breaks on the Surf Coast, with bigger bombs at swell magnets and 10-12ft+ on the Mornington Peninsula.

A drop in size is due into Tuesday and further Wednesday, with a weaker smaller reinforcing S/SW swell for later Tuesday/Wednesday morning slowing the trend.

Coming back to the conditions, and winds early Saturday morning will be favourable and fresh to strong from the N/NW, but a W/SW change is now due around 10am, creating average conditions.

Sunday looks much better with a fresh and gusty NW'ly only swinging W/NW into the afternoon and strengthening, creating clean conditions all day on the Surf Coast.

Monday will only offer up a small window of workable conditions with a dawn and strong W-W/NWly due to give way to a strong SW change around 9-10am.

Tuesday looks great though as the swell eases under NW tending W/NW offshores.

Into the end of the week, there's a couple more large pulses of swell due, the first arriving from the SW Wednesday afternoon, peaking Thursday and then trailing off from the S/SW Friday and further through the weekend.

This will be generated by the last burst of polar frontal activity under the influence of the Long Wave Trough early to mid-next week.

A peak in size around the 5-6ft range is due Thursday morning across the Surf Coast and 8ft on the Mornington Peninsula but with poor and strong SW winds. There's the possibility for an early W'ly around Torquay, but the swell will be quite raw. Friday is due to play out similar, but we'll have a closer look at this Monday. Have a great weekend!


Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Sunday, 2 Aug 2015 at 7:59am

Solid sets this morning..

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Sunday, 2 Aug 2015 at 8:33am

How's Lorne too!

leckiep's picture
leckiep's picture
leckiep Sunday, 2 Aug 2015 at 10:25am

Yew! Can confirm a few fun ones around this morning on the surf coast. Not too many people around at first light either, at least where we were...

By my reckoning that change tomorrow is going to be early and ruin the party. Craig/Ben any thoughts?

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot Sunday, 2 Aug 2015 at 1:27pm

Few good ones at bells today. Pretty solid. Not many people either.

mick-free's picture
mick-free's picture
mick-free Sunday, 2 Aug 2015 at 1:36pm

Far out I'm shiverring just looking at it on the cam

arnie's picture
arnie's picture
arnie Sunday, 2 Aug 2015 at 9:08pm

Beautiful morning, sunrise in the east, full moon in the west, pumping waves, cold as a mother in law's kiss.