Best Saturday with plenty of swell but onshores from Sunday
Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 8th August)
Best Days: Sunday, Thursday morning, Friday morning
Another strong pulse of W/SW groundswell filled in yesterday but conditions were a little disorganised early as overnight onshores eased off rapidly around dawn and then became variable.
This created lumpy but improving conditions with 4-5ft sets on the Surf Coast and 8ft waves on the Mornington Peninsula. The afternoon saw cleaner conditions as light offshores developed.
This morning a fresh pulse of S/SW groundswell doesn't look to have come in as well as expected with only 2-3ft waves reported on the Surf Coast, under the 3-4ft+ I was expecting. The same swell is hitting Southern Tasmania, with strong 3-5ft sets, so I'd expect at lest 3-4ft waves across the Surf Coast this morning. The swell may be a touch late so keep an eye on the coast through the day as winds will hold from the NW. The Mornington Peninsula is also clean with sets to 6ft and options aplenty depending on ability.
This weekend and next week (Aug 9 - 15)
Even though today's S/SW groundswell seems a little slow on the Surf Coast, we should still see 2-3ft waves tomorrow morning ahead of a drop through the day. The Mornington Peninsula should offer 3-5ft sets and early N'ly winds should create clean conditions. The Surf Coast should see N/NW tending NW winds keeping the surf clean all day.
A low point in surf is due Sunday and besides an early fresh W/NW'ly, a strong SW change will create poor conditions as a large and powerful SW groundswell fills in.
This groundswell discussed in much detail in previous forecasts should push in strongly during the afternoon and reach 5-6ft+ late on the Surf Coast with 8-10ft sets on the Mornington Peninsula but there'll be no decent options for a wave with the onshore wind.
A slow drop in size is due through Monday from a similar size to later Sunday but winds will continue to be an issue with a fresh but slightly easing S/SE wind.
Unfortunately most of next week will remain poor as a high pressure ridge moving in from the west does so very slowly.
This will keep persistent moderate onshore S'ly winds blowing through Tuesday and Wednesday morning before finally relenting on Thursday. The swell will continue to drop into the middle of the week, but a new SW groundswell is due on Thursday.
This will be generated by a series of cold fronts tracking unfavourably around the bottom of the high moving in from the west, but their strength should still see a medium sized SW groundswell generated for us.
The Surf Coast should come in at 3ft while the Mornington Peninsula should see better 5-6ft sets. A more variable breeze should create cleaner conditions but there still might be a bit of lump and wobble across most spots. Friday looks to play out similar with a drop in swell under variable winds.
Longer term there's nothing too significant on the cards so make the most of today's waves.