South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed 10th May)

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Strong S swell with a rebuild in size Thurs and SW-S winds tending SE in the a’noon
• Inconsistent E swell expected to persist through most of the week
• Fun mixed bag this weekend as SSE swell slowly eases with SE winds developing- light SW through the morning
• Plenty of E’ly tradewind swell early next week, filling in on Sun
• Front and trough see S swell develop mid week

Recap

Plenty of S swell yesterday with a typically huge spread in wave heights according to exposure to direct S swells. North Coast rivermouth bars were observed at 10ft, with S facing beaches in the 6-8ft range, although most of Northern NSW saw 5-6ft surf under W/SW-SW winds. SEQLD ranged from 3-4ft down to tiny with most beaches around the 2ft range, augmented by a small amount of inconsistent E swell. Today has seen S swell back down with 4-6ft surf at NENSW S exposed breaks, mostly 2-3ft in SEQLD at S exposed breaks with a few E swell sets to 2-3ft albeit very inconsistent. SW winds have tended S-SSE and freshened after lunch. 

Classic corduroy across the North Coast Points this morning

This week (May10-12)

The strong reinforcing cold front is now almost across the Tasman with a large (1031hPa) high moving across from the Bight and already setting up a ridge along the QLD Coast. High pressure moves into the Tasman as we end the week with a dominant role into next week as tradewinds develop in the Coral Sea, before a front and possible low brings another strong S’ly surge with an accompanying S swell.

In the short run and we’ll see winds continue out of the S’ly quadrant tomorrow, likely SW across most of NENSW up into the Gold Coast early before tending S then SE through the day. A rebuild in S swell will supply 5-6ft sets (possibly a few bigger 6ft+ sets) across NENSW S exposed breaks, breaking much smaller at sheltered spots and into SEQLD where we we’ll see sets top out at 3ft. Inconsistent E swell continues to add some 3ft sets into the mix, more noticeable in SEQLD.

Friday looks like more of the same with high pressure moving out into the Tasman bringing a S’ly flow tending SE in SEQLD and more E/SE in NENSW, even tending E/NE around Coffs. We should see plenty of leftover S swell to 3-5ft at S facing beaches in NENSW, smaller 2-3ft at SEQLD S facing beaches and Northern Corners,  mixed in with some small E swell to 2-3ft on the sets. A great day to evaluate the effects of this weeks large S swell on local sandbanks.

This weekend (May 13 - 14)

We should see a nice slow ramp down in size from the S-SSE as the large wind-field located near New Zealand slowly clears the Tasman Sea through the following 48hrs. Size will favour NENSW with Sat still seeing some 4ft sets at S exposed breaks, smaller 2-3ft in SEQLD where the slightly improved swell direction should favour a greater array of spots. Mixed in will be a continuing slow E swell with some 2-3ft sets. Early winds should be SW apart from the Sunshine Coast which is more likely to have a S-SE flow before winds tend SE across the entire f/cast region.

Similar winds Sun with SSE swell dropping out of the mix through the day after a few 2-3ft sets in the morning. The ridge along the QLD Coast and SE tradewinds in the Coral Sea will supply a small but noticeable increase in E/SE swell to 2-3ft, bigger 3ft in SEQLD through the day under SE winds. This will be peaky, short period swell but should offer up a few fun options.

Next week (May 15 onwards)

Next week still has the strong high in the Tasman with the focus of the wind-field in the Coral Sea supplying plenty of summer-style E’ly tradewind swell. 

We’ll expect a busy start to next week with fun levels of peaky 3ft swell from the E- 3-4ft in SEQLD- under light/mod S-SE winds, which should tend to classic land breezes in the morning.

By Tues we should see a trough deepening somewhere in the Tasman Sea with models really struggling to resolve the dynamic situation although recent runs suggest a trough of low pressure forming off the Coffs Coast. That may see SW winds develop north of the trough, with 3-4ft of E swell on hand from the Coral Sea tradewind fetch.

A front is expected to interact with the deepening trough of low pressure generating a S’ly fetch through the Tasman Sea Tue into Wed before the system quickly departs stage left (out past the North Island).

We’ll fine-tune size and timing Fri but current modelling suggests a bog standard S swell blast likely pushing up into the 4ft range later Wed under S’ly winds before easing off quickly Thurs into Fri.

Medium range then suggests a pause with quiet surf next weekend 20-21/5, possibly with some small S swell. Probably a good chance to fix some dings.

Check back Fri for the latest and a last look at the weekend.