Craig

Slowly easing over coming week, large from the S/SW Monday

Java, Bali, Lombok, Sumbawa forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Tue 5th Aug)

Best Days: Every day besides Saturday arvo and Sunday morning

This week and weekend (Aug 6 - 10)

Yesterday morning was a low point in swell activity but late in the day the fore-runners of an inconsistent and large long-range SW groundswell started to show.

This swell is continuing to fill in today and should peak around midday at an inconsistent 8-10ft across exposed breaks with smaller surf in protected locations.

From this evening though the swell will drop away, with a reinforcing S/SW groundswell for later tomorrow afternoon expected to slow the easing trend through Wednesday and then through the rest of the week.

Exposed spots should still offer 8ft sets tomorrow before dipping away slowly from 6ft+ Thursday.

Fresh to strong E/SE trades will limit the best waves to protected spots where the swell will be smaller (weakening a touch through Friday before strengthening again into Saturday afternoon and further Sunday.

Sunday morning is looking to be our new low point but late in the day we should see the fore-runners of a new large and powerful S/SW groundswell that's due to fill in and peak Monday. This is discussed in more detail below.

Next Monday onwards (Aug 11 onwards)

Monday's large and powerful S/SW groundswell has already started to be created. West of Heard Island a vigorous and slow moving polar frontal progression is generating a broad fetch of severe-gale W/SW winds and this system will continue moving slowly east while sustaining those wind speeds along with stronger storm-force winds at its core.

This will produce a very large open ocean swell to 48ft (over 14m) in the South-eastern Indian Ocean with the swell expected to travel towards us and arrive later Sunday, before peaking midday Monday.

Size wise we should see 10-12ft sets at exposed spots around Bali with the odd freak bomb possible with similar waves across East Java and smaller surf around Sumbawa.

After Monday's peak a steady drop in size is due into Tuesday and Wednesday with another large but much smaller S/SW groundswell on the cards for Thursday and Friday (we'll look at this again on Thursday).

Strong E/SE trades on Monday will limit the best waves to protected spots but these should ease through the week opening up more options at more exposed breaks from Wednesday onwards.

16 day Bali Forecast Graph
16 day East Java Forecast Graph
16 day Sumbawa Forecast Graph

Comments

fitzroy-21's picture
fitzroy-21's picture
fitzroy-21 commented Tuesday, 5 Aug 2014 at 1:12pm

Hey Welly, are you going to be back at work to witness this one on its way through???

wellymon's picture
wellymon's picture
wellymon commented Tuesday, 5 Aug 2014 at 2:59pm

Fitzy, No thank god ;) I find it really hard to sleep out there in those long period big swells, especially when the tide changes at night, even with heading control on.
Everyone out there gets fatigued after a few or more days.
Still in the Timor sea, strong SE winds 30-35 knts the last few days, home tomorrow yeeeww :)

Our brains are too small at the moment to comprehend the reality of what's happening in our forests . We're only just waking up so to speak . The big problem is we think we know everything, we are specks of dust on a timeline and we know nothing .

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Wednesday, 6 Aug 2014 at 4:37pm

Latest satellite observations are in for the storm generating Monday's swell, and jeez it's impressive. Some serious winds here!

mick-free's picture
mick-free's picture
mick-free commented Wednesday, 6 Aug 2014 at 5:48pm

oh no not again

Mick Free FIFOFOMO