Next week still looks dynamic with potential for a deep trough or low in the Tasman, although we are going to have to play it day by day due to poor model to model and run to run consistency
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A broad trade fetch on steroids is now slowly breaking down through the Coral, Tasman and South Pacific with a tropical low whizzing away to the SE.
The dominant synoptic feature is a high pressure system in the southern Tasman Sea that’s directing a firm ridge over Northern NSW and SE Qld.
The Eastern seaboard is in between two large highs at the moment with a system near New Zealand still generating surf via a tradewind fetch and a new system moving through the Bight about to replicate it.
We’ll see the current dominant high (1034hPa) straddling New Zealand which is directing a broad trade fetch through the South Pacific and into the Coral Sea slowly migrate eastwards this week with an E’ly dip forming a trough of low pressure due E of SEQLD mid week.
Following a fun south-east pulse for the weekend, east energy ramps up later next week.
We’re seeing a ramp up in strong S’ly winds along the eastern seaboard as a dominant high (1035hPa) moves through the eastern Bight towards Tasmania with a trough on it’s leading edge moving northwards. Remnants of a low on the weekend are also sitting near New Zealand with swell generating fetches off the South Island and emerging from Cook Strait into the eastern Tasman.
We’ll see another front and trough develop mid week on the leading edge of the dominant high, which sees a strong S/SE-SE fetch develop through the lower Tasman from mid week. Plenty of swell from this source with a strong ridge along the NSW seeing fresh S’lies, easing into the weekend.
This combo of low period and southerly swell direction doesn’t make sense for Far Northern NSW and SE Qld, but good surf has eventuated quite a few times before.
We’ve got a slow moving high sitting east of Tasmania and a trough of low pressure off the North Coast directing an onshore flow across most of the Eastern Seaboard and generating plenty of local swell.