A monster high (1037hPa) moves into the Bight tomorrow and slowly weakens as it enters the Tasman on the weekend, bringing SE winds into the Coral Sea and holding a small signal of SE-E/SE swell that will hold just rideable surf.
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Smaller surf than indicated on Fri due to the structure, strength and positioning of the Coral Sea low.
By Mon morning we should have a complex trough of low pressure NE of K’gari (Fraser Is) with a well developed fetch of strong SE winds feeding into the low and extending well out into the Coral Sea.
The gist of it is a trough line in the Coral Sea, which may deepen into a low pressure system and drift towards the North Island (GFS scenario) or move towards the QLD coast as a coastal trough and intensify a NE infeed into the CQ coast, possibly as early as Sun bringing a major increase in E-E/NE swell.
Some signs of a rebuild in SE-E/SE winds in the Coral Sea next week should add to the mix and hold rideable surf from Tues-Fri.
A high E of NZ is feeding winds into a trough in the Coral Sea and that will hold fun surf today and into tomorrow.
We’ve got large peanut shaped high centred over Tasmania with lobes in the Bight and Tasman Sea. The moist onshore flow from this set-up is flowing into a coastal trough and small trough of low pressure off the NQLD coast bringing fun sized E swell.
Weak but persistent tradewinds in the Coral Sea should hold surf just rideable on low tides. If the retrograding low comes off as modelled we’ll see a nice boost in size from Fri into the weekend.
High pressure in the Tasman is maintaining a ridge along the QLD coast with fun sized surf across the CQ region under mod/fresh SE winds.
The tradewind belt is weak but perisistent enough to produce some just rideable surf across CQ on the right tides.