E’ly winds in the Coral Sea should still see surf develop across CQ from Wed, with rideable surf through to the end of the week.
Primary tabs
On it’s own that will see a broad E’ly fetch develop likely in the New Caledonia quadrant, extending into the South Pacific slot. GFS adds to that recipe for a round of (sizey) trade swell with a deepening trough in the Coral Sea which spawns a surface low mid week, currently modelled to track southwards into the Tasman.
There’s a S’ly flow currently weakening and no swell producing winds behind it.
Low pressure in the Tasman this week and no swell generating winds in the Coral Sea= tiny/flat surf this week in CQ.
Into next week and low pressure sits in the Tasman while the Coral Sea remains lifeless.
The only hope is some small E swell from a distant fetch which may see some rideable waves ta spots exposed to the Capricorn to Breaksea Spit channel opening. We’ll see some potential 1-2ft surf through Thurs/Fri and Sat from that source.
Some small E’ly tradeswell is also likely to build into the first week of winter as an E’ly fetch builds across the Coral Sea, suggesting a round of fun surf for CQ.
We should see some tiny, possibly just rideable surf from the system through the week, more likely after Wed as the fetch draws out into the Northern Tasman.
That fetch will be positioned too far south for CQ and as a result of that we’ll see mostly tiny surf next week.
Weaker pressure gradients are now in the Coral Sea, as the synoptic pattern takes a pause in between dominant high pressure systems.