Central QLD Forecaster Notes by Steve Shearer (updated on Fri 16th May)

This weekend and next week (May16-May23)

Central QLD: Surf easing into the weekend nothing much next week now as low forms in Tasman.

Surf and conditions deteriorating

Easing surf into the weekend as the trade fetch completely breaks down in the Coral Sea. 

Expect surf to become tiny over the weekend and into early next week.

Unfortunately the outlook for next week has now deteriorated. We’ve got good model agreement now that through Mon we’ll see a deep trough develop from the Coral Sea down to a terminus somewhere on the MNC to lower North Coast with good odds we will see a surface low develop at that terminus. Areas to the south of that trough/low will see strong S/SE-SE winds develop, with those winds extending into a powerful fetch through the Central Tasman. 

That fetch will be positioned too far south for CQ and as a result of that we’ll see mostly tiny surf next week.

Low too far south to produce surf for CQ

Model runs have toyed with the idea of more low pressure development in the Coral Sea or Tasman late next week, although latest runs have back off on that possibility. 

We’ll see how it looks when we come back Mon.

Until then, have a great weekend!