Early Forecast: 2025 Vivo Rio Pro

Craig Brokensha picture
Craig Brokensha (Craig)
Form Guide

Rio Pro, 2025
June 21st - 29th

All times are local.
Australia is 13 hours ahead: 9pm Saturday here is 8am Saturday in Rio.

Once again, we’ve got a quick turnaround between CT stops. There's just five days between Trestles and Brazil, with the waiting period for the Vivo Rio Pro set to kick off this Saturday, running through until the following Sunday.

However, we’re unlikely to see competition get underway this weekend thanks to the lack of any notable swell. Saquarema will be small out of the east on Saturday and then a touch bigger from the south on both Sunday and Monday.

With just three days needed for competition, the WSL can afford to be picky so they'll have their sights on the middle to end of the waiting period, which looks much more active. That corresponds with the middle to end of next week when a series of strong frontal systems spawn off the Argentinian coast, spinning around a large, slow moving Southern Ocean gyre.

Each of these frontal systems will generate moderate to large pulses of south-southwesterly swell from Wednesday through Friday, easing a little into the weekend.

The first will generate an expansive fetch of south-west gales that will push up towards southern Brazil through Monday, with the swell due to build into Tuesday afternoon albeit with onshore winds. Wednesday looks a better option with wave size peaking around 6 foot, replete with light variable winds ahead of afternoon sea breezes.

A secondary, reinforcing pulse of south-southwest groundswell is due on Thursday to 4-6 foot, generated by further strong to gale-force south-west winds off Argentina. Again, local winds at Saquarema look great through the morning, offshore out of the north-northeast, before strengthening out of the east into the afternoon.

Friday appears similar with light early winds giving way to sea breezes and the swell easing further. Those three days - Wednesday, Thursday, Friday - will likely be the three likely competition days.

If, however, any of those days fails to deliver the WSL has a contingency plan with a secondary surge of gales due later next week. They'll produce a less consistent though moderate-sized south-southwest groundswell for next weekend. At this point, size appears to peak around 4-6 feet on Sunday, though winds are too hard to decipher. With the storm staying at arm's length from Brazil, the inclination is to think we'll have favourable morning conditions, though we’ll have a closer look at the exact timings and sizes of the incoming swell pulses in the next update.

Comments

Alex Papas's picture
Alex Papas's picture
Alex Papas Tuesday, 17 Jun 2025 at 2:09pm

fingers crossed we get a similar comp to whichever it was that gave us funneling right hand tubes down one end and a long ripping left in the other end (if my memory serves?)

stunet's picture
stunet's picture
stunet Tuesday, 17 Jun 2025 at 2:13pm

Don't think they go to Barrinha - the right - anymore. They've never said outright that they're no longer mobile but they've stayed put during otherwise classic days down there.

Gowsa's picture
Gowsa's picture
Gowsa Tuesday, 17 Jun 2025 at 4:22pm

That one was Epic.
But I think now they just stay in the backwash at the other end.

Alex Papas's picture
Alex Papas's picture
Alex Papas Wednesday, 18 Jun 2025 at 10:45am

wasn't it awesome? i loved it. hopefully we get some juice this comp!

gedsta's picture
gedsta's picture
gedsta Tuesday, 17 Jun 2025 at 2:37pm

"The first will generate an expensive fetch of south-west gales"
Expansive perhaps....

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Tuesday, 17 Jun 2025 at 2:52pm

Ha. Indeed.

NickT's picture
NickT's picture
NickT Wednesday, 18 Jun 2025 at 2:47pm

That was pretty awesome, getty jiggy with the english.

Standingleft's picture
Standingleft's picture
Standingleft Tuesday, 17 Jun 2025 at 5:03pm

Huey's coming to the Rio party, yew
Thx Craigos, (Is that the same weather system which sent swell to Trestles?)
Two events from one swell. Go the Wozzle!

pebbleamongsttherocks's picture
pebbleamongsttherocks's picture
pebbleamongstth... Tuesday, 17 Jun 2025 at 5:29pm

Yago’s a machine out there, furthermore with good conditions, he’ll be soaring . Someone needs to clip his wings

bbbird's picture
bbbird's picture
bbbird Tuesday, 17 Jun 2025 at 6:56pm

Brazilians may score frequent flyers points.
Hope its good party weather for everyone else.

Solitude's picture
Solitude's picture
Solitude Tuesday, 17 Jun 2025 at 8:46pm

Do you reckon the Brazilians feel for Australian comps the way most Aussies feel toward Saquerema?

J W's picture
J W's picture
J W Wednesday, 18 Jun 2025 at 10:01am

I reckon they are hardwired to victimise themselves and whinge about anything no matter what. Take a look at the wild card post on the wozzles IG. Major blow ups despite all of them being Brazilian. It’s a legitimate tantrum from them every single time

Solitude's picture
Solitude's picture
Solitude Wednesday, 18 Jun 2025 at 10:15am

What’s with the wildcard?

pvfloripa's picture
pvfloripa's picture
pvfloripa Wednesday, 18 Jun 2025 at 10:40am

Indeed, I agree Brazilians are hardwired to victimise themselves. But I also argue Aussies are hardwired to emphasise Brazilian complaints. And hardwired to complain about Brazilian airs. And hardwired to complain about Brazilian claims. If others do those things, it's all nice and normal. But when Brazilians do it, it is a drama.

I am pretty sure this comment of mine is just my hardwired perception, which I have but can't see!

memlasurf's picture
memlasurf's picture
memlasurf Friday, 20 Jun 2025 at 10:34am

Hardwired seems an overused term. You think?

pvfloripa's picture
pvfloripa's picture
pvfloripa Friday, 20 Jun 2025 at 4:42pm

Haha, totally!

pvfloripa's picture
pvfloripa's picture
pvfloripa Wednesday, 18 Jun 2025 at 10:31am

No. Australia has some magical spots (which Brazilians enjoy very much) like Snapper, Bells and Margs. If you start including Narrabeen, Newcastle, etc., then the quality will be just as average as Brazil's. Saquarema and many other spots can be epic on their days (just like Narrabeen and NC), but you have to be lucky to get those days in comp windows.

Lanky Dean's picture
Lanky Dean's picture
Lanky Dean Wednesday, 18 Jun 2025 at 11:01am

All spots are great, now and again
Just seems most core viewers want epic/ heavy / gnarly waves...
Which is why saq should probably just decide the changa ...

Nick Gee's picture
Nick Gee's picture
Nick Gee Tuesday, 17 Jun 2025 at 8:48pm

6 foot? looking like a good playing field. hopefully there's a couple of banks and the backwash monster is subdued.

Mattyrad82's picture
Mattyrad82's picture
Mattyrad82 Wednesday, 18 Jun 2025 at 12:03am

The only time this comp was good was when they had it on the right at the other end of the beach that seems like they won’t go back to
They have a decent looking coastline surely there are better waves over there other than this shithouse backwashy beachy move it or get ride of it suckarammer sux everyone hates it !!!

Surfalot67's picture
Surfalot67's picture
Surfalot67 Wednesday, 18 Jun 2025 at 7:18am

Just can't get any froth over this stop. Right up there with Portugal as the worst stop on the tour. One turn closeouts aren't exciting at all

peabo's picture
peabo's picture
peabo Wednesday, 18 Jun 2025 at 9:22am

Hoping if it's actually 6ft, that it's too big for it to be just an air fest.

Lanky Dean's picture
Lanky Dean's picture
Lanky Dean Wednesday, 18 Jun 2025 at 11:06am

If Kelly was granted a wild card to saq...would he take it?
"Tree falling in the woods No one around to hear it ?"

gm14's picture
gm14's picture
gm14 Wednesday, 18 Jun 2025 at 11:50am

Any forecast of the wildcards?? would love to see a G. Medina sneak into the draw

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Wednesday, 18 Jun 2025 at 12:23pm

2 Brazilians.

Peterson Crisanto
Gabriel Klaussner

Lanky Dean's picture
Lanky Dean's picture
Lanky Dean Wednesday, 18 Jun 2025 at 2:02pm

The Brazilian high pressure system !

yahabo's picture
yahabo's picture
yahabo Wednesday, 18 Jun 2025 at 1:11pm

Can't wait for J-Bay...

Solitude's picture
Solitude's picture
Solitude Wednesday, 18 Jun 2025 at 5:40pm

Aside from a bit of home town atmosphere, I can’t imagine there’s an athlete on tour that rates Saq as a place that suits their style or somewhere they ‘should’ do well at…….maybe the full on air guys?
I’d rate my odds on a ticket in a dream-home lotto over that weird backwashy excuse for a beach break.

bbbird's picture
bbbird's picture
bbbird Wednesday, 18 Jun 2025 at 9:50pm

New


Sus

uuummm

bbbird's picture
bbbird's picture
bbbird Wednesday, 18 Jun 2025 at 10:22pm

Top of the pops

Bustard's picture
Bustard's picture
Bustard Friday, 20 Jun 2025 at 6:30am

Interesting comments from some Brazilians in regards to the wild cards

Certainly impressed by Joao’s vocabulary “meritocracy “ not oft used in surfer speak… watch out FR

Solitude's picture
Solitude's picture
Solitude Friday, 20 Jun 2025 at 6:55am

The wonders of AI eh?

Bustard's picture
Bustard's picture
Bustard Friday, 20 Jun 2025 at 8:40am

Or FR has taken up a gig as IG ghost poster to the pro’s for a modest fee

More tubes please's picture
More tubes please's picture
More tubes please Friday, 20 Jun 2025 at 8:58am

What’s being said? Are there more deserving wildcards out there?

Bustard's picture
Bustard's picture
Bustard Friday, 20 Jun 2025 at 9:16am

Chianca wrote he “ was bored with Tati and Peterson “ and other higher profile Brazilian pros have weighed in with similar

peabo's picture
peabo's picture
peabo Friday, 20 Jun 2025 at 10:04am

I saw this and thought it was maybe a weird translation. His issue didn't seem to be with Peterson and Tati, but rather the other male Brazilian wildcard who wasn't a local and seems a bit of an unknown(maybe a sponsor's pick?).

moronifeifosa's picture
moronifeifosa's picture
moronifeifosa Friday, 20 Jun 2025 at 10:06pm

It was a sponsor’s pick. He isn’t a local and isn’t even in the challenger series. João’s issue isn’t with Peterson and Tati

Solitude's picture
Solitude's picture
Solitude Friday, 20 Jun 2025 at 1:31pm

Chianca being a local there must feel there’s deserving local rippers who have been dudded……………where are the non-Hawaiian Brazilian women surfers?

bbbird's picture
bbbird's picture
bbbird Sunday, 22 Jun 2025 at 10:04am

jacquesfunke's picture
jacquesfunke's picture
jacquesfunke Thursday, 26 Jun 2025 at 1:30pm

Meanwhile around the corner, surfing is pumping while the WSL commercial media spot is blown out.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Thursday, 26 Jun 2025 at 1:33pm

Cooking!

We'll likely see them run today with easing, cleaner surf compared to yesterday's large, onshore energy with the next run day likely to be Sunday as a new S/SW groundswell fills in to 4-6ft under light winds.

stunet's picture
stunet's picture
stunet Thursday, 26 Jun 2025 at 1:51pm

Not quite around the corner...

crg's picture
crg's picture
crg Thursday, 26 Jun 2025 at 2:23pm

They should have definitely gone there.
The tour definitely needs more right hand point breaks.