Wednesday, 8 September 2021

Not much change expected from Mon’s f/cast notes apart from the timing on the expected long period S pulse over the next 24hrs. ASCAT (satellite windspeed) passes showed plenty of storm force winds associated with the deep low as it transited the Tasman overnight and into this morning. 

Monday, 6 September 2021

This swell will be generated by a deep low centred around 50S which is expected to track south of Tasmania, with a slight NE wobble as it transits the Tasman on Tuesday. This is a powerful storm, with storm force winds and a large area of seas in excess of 30ft, and as a result swell periods will be in excess of 15s which will produce some real bathymetric focussing effects on deepwater reefs through Wed PM as  swell trains get tripped up.

Friday, 3 September 2021

By Mon morning the Tasman sea will be inflamed with severe gale to potentially storm force winds, as a robust low and reinforcing cold front push into the lower Tasman.

Wednesday, 1 September 2021

Spring starts with pattern change and an unstable, dynamic synoptic outlook with several swell sources incoming.

Monday, 30 August 2021

The surf will continue to fade into the middle of the week ahead of building surf from the east-northeast on the weekend and more so next week.

Friday, 27 August 2021

Current ASCAT (satellite windspeed) passes show our Tasman low in a great place, slowly drifting E of Tasmania towards New Zealand, maintaining a nice pressure gradient squeeze with a high pressure cell SE of Tasmania. As expected, the low has filled in a bit, with a corresponding lessening of windspeeds, mostly low end gales, compared to the storm force winds of it’s “bombing” phase. 

Wednesday, 25 August 2021

The Tasman low finally moves into better position later Thurs into Fri, weakening as it does so. The weekend still looks great though, just smaller due to the declining windspeeds on the SW flank of the low, compared to Monday’s notes.

Monday, 23 August 2021

The weekend's extremely warm, benign weather is about to be swept away by a wintry blast as a trough following the passage of a cold front later today interacts with a cold pool and forms an explosive surface low Tuesday morning.

Friday, 20 August 2021

Not much joy for the weekend but we'll see the surf ramp up rapidly through next week as a Tasman Low develops right off the southern NSW coast.

Wednesday, 18 August 2021

Next week looks really active now, with a few different swell sources in the offing and a fair bit of model divergence which we will need to resolve on Friday.