Models are now firming on a large tropical depression (possibly a TC) drifting southwards into the slot between New Caledonia and the North Island from mid next week. A broad, slow moving area of E’ly low end gales is likely on the southern flank of this system, initially favouring the sub-tropics, but radiating down to temperate NSW through next weekend.
Strong high pressure (1035 hPa) is now moving SE of Tasmania with an embedded trough along the advancing ridge ramping up wind speeds from the SSE-SE into the 30kts+ range. Conditions should settle as the high moves into the Tasman and weakens and the ridge relaxes through the end of the week.
The models aren't picking it up well but I'm still expecting an interesting long period south swell to glance the coast tomorrow.
An interesting succession of poorly aligned but explosive Southern Ocean low pressure systems below the continent will generate a spread of acute south swell along the Southern NSW coast early next week.
Ex TC Gabrielle (SS) is now on the eastern side of the North Island with swell generating winds also in the swell shadow of the North Island. A weak (1017HPa) high is covering most of the Tasman Sea with an active monsoon trough still supplying plenty of tropical moisture and instability across Northern Australia. Remnants of a trough near the South Island have set up a weak, off-axis fetch back into the Tasman Sea. It all spells a much quieter period of surf ahead.
Ex TC Gabrielle is still the main game as far as swell production goes. The former cyclone is now a large sub-tropical storm (SS) slow moving near the top of the North Island. Current ASCAT (satellite windspeed) passes show a broad but short fetch of gales to severe gales extending off the west coast of the North Island, slightly off axis for the East Coast but maintaining a strong swell regime in the short term.
Severe tropical cyclone (Cat3) Gabrielle is currently tracking SE at about 16 knots and is located about 455 nm NE of Brisbane.
Over the next couple of days, TC Gabrielle will strengthen considerably and track south-east through the Coral Sea, enroute to the Northern Tasman.
A convective cloud mass between the Solomon Islands and Vanuatu is expected to consolidate and deepen into a tropical cyclone by mid week, tracking back into the Coral Sea towards the tropical QLD coast before recurving and drifting Southwards through the Coral Sea and eventually towards the North Island. Swell from this system is expected across most of the Eastern Seaboard.
Overall I’m expecting fun though slow 2-3ft sets, however wind strengths around the trough are capable of generating bigger sets.