Energy radiating from this source fetch is expected to see a slow tail off in wave heights through tomorrow, with some rideable leftovers Wed, but you will have to deal with freshening N’ly winds.
Our “long tail” is still on the menu to start next week. With the small but intense low becoming slow moving as it drifts NE up towards the Northern peninsula of the North Island, crossing it overnight Sun.
A small trough Sat east of Tasmania separated from the polar flow forms a compact low that super-charges another SW fetch of severe gales that tracks aggressively NE into the central Tasman overnight Sat into Sun.
Thursday is a much better bet for a more solid spike in S swell. A series of severe gale strength SW fetches slingshot around the eastern flank of the low, tracking NE into the Tasman and generating several S swell pulses.
There’s not much surf expected this weekend. But, we have a few long term sources shaping up nicely.
A vigorous front will push east of Bass Strait tonight, and strong to gale force W/SW winds in its wake will generate a flukey south swell for Southern NSW.
Look, there’s really not much to get excited about this week. Only one swell to work around.
The weekend's strong frontal progression will be detached from polar latitudes, so we’re looking at another spell of small conditions interspersed with flukey south swells.
So, today’s large windy south swell is at its peak, and will trend down steadily through Thursday.
All eyes are on an advancing cold front that’s expected to sweep across the state on Tuesday night.