Sydney Hunter Illawarra Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed July 9th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Modest S swell pulse Fri with offshore winds (W tending W/SW in the a’noon)
• Small into Sat with a better pulse of S swell in the a’noon under W-W/SW winds with light S-SE breezes PM
• Pumping Sun AM with solid S swell and offshore winds, size eases PM
• Small background E swell in the water over the weekend offering very inconsistent sets
• Small leftovers Mon
• Small S pulse Tues with W tending SW winds
• More small S swells and offshore winds next week
• Winter pattern persists with W’ly winds and small S swells 

Recap

Not much swell energy in the water this week with yesterday seeing minor SE swells to 1-1.5ft across most of the region with a few 2footers on the Hunter topping out the scale. Conditions were clean to ruffled under mod/fresh offshore winds. Still tiny into today with surf of a similar magnitude or smaller and early W winds tending mod NW through the day. Better news ahead, reads on for details.

Very peaceful Pacific Ocean this morning

This week (July 9-11)

A weak synoptic pattern over the continent is about to be replaced by a series of troughs and fronts sweeping up from the SW. We’ll see freshening pre-frontal NW winds shift W then W/SW as the fronts and parent low enter the Tasman. Compared to Mondays notes the outlook for S swell is improved, mostly due to a better aligned following front which conjoins the initial front and forms a slower moving low in the southern Tasman.

In the short run, freshening NW winds tomorrow, shifting fresh/strong W’ly through the a’noon. Babyfood through the morning with tiny background E swells. It’s likely to stay tiny all day but a tiny flush of refracted S swell late in the day is possible at S swell magnets.

More S swell in the water Fri but this initial pulse will be fairly modest- It’s only a constrained fetch that skips away quickly. Size in the 3ft range at S facing beaches, with magnets like Bondi and the Hunter offering up 4ft sets. Winds will be basically W’ly at mod/fresh paces, veering W/SW at times as the next front pushes through Bass Strait. 

This weekend (Jul 12-13)

High pressure moves over inland NSW and a front and low move into the Tasman through Sat. That will see a W-W/SW flow for the morning tend to light SE-E/SE breezes in the a’noon as pressure gradients rapidly ease. We should see a really nice kick in new S swell through Sat, focused on the after lunch session as the stronger following fetch does it’s work generating new swell. Early morning will have some new energy from the Bass Strait portion of the fetch Fri with size to 3-4ft across S facing beaches. Through the a’noon we should see that build into the 4-5ft range at S facing beaches, possibly offering bigger 6ft sets on the Hunter. There will be that slight onshore breeze to deal with but windspeeds should remain surfably light. 

Sunday now looks very good at S facing beaches and reefs. Light W-W/NW breezes that may persist all day south of Jervis Bay, tending to light N-NE breezes through most of the f/cast region. Sat a’noons increase holds at similar or a touch bigger size into Sun through the morning session with great 4-5ft sets and the occ. 6ft set at better S swell magnets and reefs. Size will trend downwards through the a’noon, softening noticeably by close of play. 

We'll also see some small background E-E/SE swell both days from a fetch drifting SE well to the E of New Zealand. Just a few very inconsistent 2ft sets with an occ. bigger wave but not likely to stand out with a stronger S swell in the water.

Next week (July 14 onwards)

More fronts and lows pushing into the Tasman next week, although nothing major at this stage. We should see winds swing pre-frontal NW Mon before swinging W-W/SW as another front pushes through, tied to a parent low which tracks NE into the Tasman Sun into Mon. 

Not much surf Mon (small leftovers to 2ft) but through Tues we’ll see a small pulse of S swell to 2-3ft (3ft+ on the Hunter) with winds swinging more SW through Tues as a small low forms offshore and moves away to the East.

That pulse then eases into Wed with small S swells padding out the week. The frontal progressions are zonal so we’re only looking at small pulses in the 2-3ft range for now into the end of the working week. Still a possibility they could look better when we come back Fri.

Medium term looks like more of the same: high pressure up over the continent, moving NE into the Tasman with W’ly episodes and small S swells. 

Pretty typical winter pattern. Let’s come back Fri and see if it holds. 

Seeya then.