While there is still a bit of model variance the broad scale pattern is clear enough to make a high confidence call on Mon seeing a significant pulse of E/NE groundswell across the region.
Surf prospects from this low are now upgraded to excellent with major weather models expecting the system to track parallel to the East Coast on a Southerly path, possibly reforming as a significant extra-tropical storm in the lower Tasman Sea next week.
A strong 1033hPa high is located well to the south of the Bight, with a ridge now surging up the East Coast. In the tropics the Monsoon trough is now active, with good odds of cylogenesis before the New Year
As discussed on Wed, we see a major pattern change next week after the troughy, doldrums pattern this week.
Very weak pressure gradients everywhere as we continue to meander through this troughy, doldrums pattern with small, weak surf. Lots of action ahead next week.
Lots of wind changes and small, flukey swells ahead this week as a Spring looking pattern unfolds in the week leading up to Xmas.
Freshening N/NE winds will deteriorate surface conditions through Saturday.
So, the weekend’s Tasman Low event - responsible for the last six days of swell - has become absorbed into a broad trough occupying the eastern half of the Tasman Sea.
The Tasman Low responsible for our three-day swell event began easing late Sunday so we’ll see a corresponding easing of surf size from now onwards.
The Tasman Low will maintain strength through Sunday, meaning Monday’s on target for strong S/SE surf