This trough then absorbs another trough of low pressure moving south from the South Pacific islands to form a large area of low pressure near New Zealand. Compared to Mondays notes the components of this complex pattern all look a little weaker and more mobile with reduced swell generating potential, but we will still see some useful pulses from the various incarnations of the broad pattern.

We’ve still got the basic building blocks in place that we mentioned on Wed with the proviso that everything looks a little weaker and disjointed. High pressure moves NE of Tasmania and the troughs remain inland, although we may see a weaker trough area move off the North Coast of NSW early in the week. SE-E/SE tradewinds are established in the Central Coral Sea and will supply small tradewind swell for the first half of the week at least.

The remnants of the weekends frontal systems have set up a fading off axis fetch near New Zealand with the current run of small S swells also on the way out. A weak mid week front will bring a wind change and a small flush of S swell but next week looks a bit more robust although with plenty of wind.

Easing swells are expected for the rest of the week, and northerlies will give it a kick in the pants on Thursday afternoon.