Submitted by Craig on Wed, 03/18/2020 - 19:44
I've created a spreadsheet forecast which I'll update as we go..
There's also a website with live running data.. https://sites.google.com/view/stayhomeaustralia
oh ffs blindboy
they've got much more resources, people (trolls), and nefarious intent than russia
they are working for biden
are we really worried about outside influences?
or just 'get trump'?
we both know the answer
and I would say that's their problem
they've literally offered nothing else
"they've got much more resources, they are working for biden" Are you talking about China sypkan?
And if so, why would China want someone competent as President. China has profited so much from Trump destroying the USA. Why would they want that to change?
"angry online, smiley in the brine"
It seems like the Democrats are doing a great job of destroying America themselves. The worse condition the US is in heading into the election, the better for the Democrats. Or so their thinking goes.
Here’s a little insight into how De Blasio’s Manhattan is prospering after he encouraged , aided and abetted looters and rioters by disabling the police force , rejecting federal help and turning a blind eye to the destruction of the city.
He's single handedly wrecked Manhattan
"Beirut DeBlasio" without the explosion https://t.co/5I48ZGcWTZ
Chicago no better https://chicago.cbslocal.com/2020/08/12/downtown-overnight-access-restri...
not the new york thingy
but that too
its pure insanity, in so many ways...
seriously viclocal, that is the dumbest analysis ever
where do you get this stuff?
it's all a bit off topic at present, so take a drive with this bloke down Manhattan's high end shopping district:
Back on topic, New testing method in US holds promise for pre vacine control.
So...on the frontline.
As of last night, in the hospital where I work, there is a palpable sense of anxiety the moment you walk in the door. We have 3 locked down Wards, ED on bypass (only taking Cat 1 or Mental Health patients) and staff testing positive (>30). This shit is real!!
For any of you sceptics /doubters/deniers/wilfully ignorant out there - research 'long COVID' or 'long-tail COVID'. These are the cohort who have been positive but without requiring hospital admission, generally 30-50 year olds. Despite the initially presenting with fairly benign respiratory/viral symptoms, 2-6 months later are still having on going issues. In 10% of cases these individuals are having cardiac problems (for example, myocarditis-inflammation of the muscles of the heart) despite being negative for months after their initial positive test. For a balanced and not overly medicalised description of long COVID, try Radio National "The Naked Scientist" broadcast Friday 14 August. There are a myriad of other post viral symptoms such as cramps, migraines, rigors, and fatigue on going, for a large number of people who are now negative for the virus. It appears that this virus 'tricks' the bodys' immune response system into reacting despite the individual being negative.
I feel very pessimistic (despite my monicker) about the situation, and pray for an effective and safe vaccine.
Please social distance, wash your hands and be careful, you don't want to end up like us in Vicco in Stage 4 lockdown and I can't even surf my local (let alone the fear of catching the virus due to my high risk job)
Take care everyone
good onya, san Guine, for your work and a very measured well meaning post
my mate put me onto a covid survivors fb group, terrifying reading about the drawn out effects of this virus that you are talking about. bloody depressing reading actually, I stopped following, ...and I can handle some doom...
this virus is much more than a respiratory disease
I feel for you guys that face this shit everyday, then go home to family knowing the possible outcomes
stay strong mate
Firstly - thanks for the help san Guine - keep it up.
It's incredibly hard to wade through the mass of information on this - the conspiracies, the personal stories, the politicised views, the 'on the front line view', the economist's thoughts and even the info presented by Dan Andrews and Brett Sutton.
I'm finding it hard to personally understand the extend of long term effects post Covid. Due to the sheer scale of infections, it's hard to grasp just how prolific this is. Is there any info out there describing how common this is, or how effected it is by previous conditions?
Also, I heard earlier this year a theory from an epidemiologist that this virus appears to affects people with generally more developed immune systems - as you said - tricking the immune system into over-reacting. Which is why generally younger people (i.e. kids) who's immune system is young and still developing seemingly have little to no issues.
thanks San Guine for the info, wishing you all the best.
We can hope the declining numbers mean transmission is lessening at present.
Also anyone in Adelaide, have a think about if you want to be in our situation if student quarantine sees a breach. Some people have gone >14 days before developing symptoms.
Good article san Guine. Nice to hear from you awesome people on the front line.
I find the short term thinking on the economic costs of covid 19 particularly annoying. Long Covid could be extremely costly to the tax payer in the years to come. People who are screaming for the economy to re-open ASAP really haven't factored in the human and economic costs of long term chronic health problems. These costs could quite possibly be up there with diabetes, asbestos, ceasar stone, and smoking.
Stay safe san Guine
Thanks for all the kind thoughts, now carry on...
That's a good analogy VL - asbestos, caesar stone etc.
Maybe the Gov messaging needs to push this angle stronger. I still see too much shite about death rate.
"Travellers would present the customs officers with an entrance visa and a vaccination record. That could be a paper card – or a tiny tattoo on their arm, invisible to the naked eye but readable by an infrared scanner. This technology already exists and has been tried on live animals and human cadaver skin, said researcher Ana Jaklenec at Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Their method uses micro-needle patches that can deliver both the vaccine and a squirt of an invisible ink under the person’s skin, storing the vaccination record.
“The macro-needles don't leave scars and are less invasive than the regular needles – it’s like putting on a Band-Aid,” Jaklenec said. That subdermal record is readable by a simple scanner, she added. “It can even be done with a modified phone.”
"Supported by The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, the technology was aimed to help in the developing world where paper or electronic records aren’t always reliable. The goal is to try it on humans with a measles vaccine soon, but the tech may come handy for other proofs of immunisations – for example at the immigration point."
Now, if that was combined with block chain technology that was stored on a chip:
"Okay, in a nutshell:
I'm a programmer that has worked with cryptocurrencies and understands how this works. Imagine that your money is not just money. It tells a story of what you do, who you do it with, how you do it, what you own, where you socialize, what Is your political association, and more.. it's dressed as a "money" but it's a token that represents YOU and represents ASSETS. It is placed on a national centralized database and used to monitor your activities. Depending on your activities, you can have your assets frozen, have you suspended from boarding a plane, have information about your health and vaccination history. It's more than just a digital dollar. It's a token of who YOU are. You don't exchange money with it, you just manipulate the ledger's entries. No real money is exchanged. I could go on with more, but this is not easy to explain. This is bitcoin gone on steroids! Only owned and controlled by state and corporations. Not distributed power, but centralized power."
Be careful what controls you allow, and even ask, for the state and corporations to apply in the name of health and 'we're looking out for you'.
One of the many things which get to me about conspiracy theories is...what's the true benefit of control? More consumption? We were already buying shite loads of useless stuff and consuming at out of control levels before. Or maybe less? Is it actually an agenda to save us from ourselves....to save us from world destruction under our current (now previous) mode of operation.
What quickly renders most conspiracies invalid (and shows the ineptitude of those who parrot these theories), is the idea that there is an 'us' (i.e. plebs) and a 'them' (Bill Gates and other super villains). How can one really think there's this ability to orchestrate the most complex, detailed and far fetched plans for the benefit of say, control? Anyone who's been in any form of leadership position will know that it's hard enough getting people to start meetings on time, let alone keep an idea like this under wraps.
Slightly OT so apologies...
This photo passed my feed recently and it set off a recurring thought: How would contemporary political agitators behave in the golden age they romaticise?
"1939, Oregon. An unemployed lumber worker with his wife. Photo by Dorothea Lange."
That tattoo you can see on the lumberjack's arm is his social security number. In other words, his unique government trace is permanently marked on him.
Can you imagine anyone in this age allowing that to happen?
Stok, why would a government drop atomic bombs wiping out entire cities of civilians?
Why would the government allow the elderly to rot in disgusting conditions in the aged care homes? (See previous posts up the thread and the recent news).
Why would they lie to go to war to kill and maim and make homeless millions and then gift reconstruction contracts to the companies whose boards they sit on?
Why do people rape? Why do they murder?
It's more about what sort of society we'd like to live in and what you'd like to put up with.
Stu, I dunno but it looks like he wears the pants in that relationship.
Why would men want to control women, deny them the vote and equal wages?
Why do people molest children?
Why do Clive Palmer and Gine Rinehart want more money and power? Why do politicians buddy up with them?
I'm with Stok, the 'plandemic' conspiracy theory is ridiculous at both the micro and macro levels. Stability and security are crucial to prosperity and both are lacking. Some people will be benefitting in the short term, the people exploting government benefits or changed biz practices for instance, but that's the case in any tragedy. It's the nature of capitalism to...well, capitalise on advantages.
It's true that covert operations have happened and still do, yet it's such a misread of human nature to think someone - we're not sure who - has convinced every single hospital in every single state in every single country of the world, plus politicians of every standing across the spectrum, to perpetuate a common lie.
I think you guys are missing the point.
For instance, using aged care as an example/analogy. The belief was/is that 'someone' (government, particular politicians, upstanding members of the community who run aged care homes, etc) would look after the elderly, your nanna or pop, and treat them well and you didn't really have to think about it beyond a visit every so often.
Next thing you know a 17 yr old kid is left in charge of dinners of dim sims and bread, staff to patient ratio is a fraction of what's needed for a life of wellbeing, people are left with rotting wounds in their beds and disease is rampant. Meanwhile, no one is accountable while your granny dies and people are profiting off it. People at 'the top'.
It happens right under your nose, amongst day to day living. Then, next thing you know you, or someone you know, is in the home in that shit situation.
But that's simply an outcome of neoliberal thinking; privatising or outsourcing preciously state run functions. In the case of the elderly they fall prey to the profit motive because they don't have the means to oppose service cuts.
Similar service reductions can be found across the board.
People took advantage of a situation. Politicians enacted legislation to gain votes and/or profit from contracts or establishing bussiness ties/coupons to be redeemed later, or whatever.
It was done at the neglect of the people but probably touted as a benefit for the people
The current situation has a lot of areas ripe for being taken advantage of.
Yeah, but all of them taken advantage of after the fact - people/companies responding to the situation. There is no overarching agency planning it from behind the scenes as FB Froot Loops would have us believe.
That's the point, there doesn't have to be an averarching agency. There is only us and how we would like to live.
Its my view that we did in fact once have an overarching agency that you speak of, it was called consensus politics. While we once had centre left and centre right political parties, in reality the differences were a mere few degrees. Politicians from both sides of politics once had a mostly shared vision for the good of the country. Like many I also believe neo-liberalism changed all that. Both political parties in effect are now on the "traditional" right with many in the LNP on the "traditional" far right. The neo-liberal lie was to sell privatisation as a benefit to consumers "with the appropriate checks and balances in place" but those checks and balances were never truly put in place or removed after lobbying. A recent classic example was Abbott's slashing** of the ATOs, ACCC and ASIC budgets and staffing numbers which emerged in the Banking RC as a reason why those statutory bodies couldn't pursue dodgy banks and financial planners and who was their to blame shift and criticise the very same Federal Government that slashed budgets and staffing that's who - have Haynes' recommendations being fully implemented by Morrison??
** Anyone else remember Abbott's mantra of slashing red tape in the first 100 days of his election? Well we now have Morrison talking about slashing green tape!!
We were talking about a conspiratorial & nefarious global overarching agency.
My point was that one doesn't need to exist for a totalitarian like, homogeneous one-size-fits-all, policy/narrative/initiative to be forced, or incrementally drip fed, on to a population.
So, politics being in such a partisan state these days and no proper and effective checks and balances, can foster or allow the atmosphere for that all to take place.
Is what I'm thinking, not sure if you agree.
Actually, less forced but more accepted as the right path to save us from whatever.
"** Anyone else remember Abbott's mantra of slashing red tape in the first 100 days of his election? Well we now have Morrison talking about slashing green tape!!"
I can't believe people fall for this "slashing red/green tape" shit.
It just mean less environmental and consumer protection. It's rarely a good thing. All that red tape slashing in the private nursing home industry is just fucking degrading and lethal.
Can anyone explain to me any theories as to why globally it has been accepted that Covid is a critical threat, and we've traded in the economy and various other essentially intangible aspects of life to tackle it. Whereas with climate change & environmental destruction, we danced around the edges of taking real actions and generally seemed happy with our path to destruction?
Seems to me that in the grand scheme of things, climate change and enviro destruction will be more catastrophic that rampant Covid, but the global response has been starkly different.
Is Covid just more in your face? And maybe a much 'quicker' disaster? Or is it psychologically we're more ok with say a few square km's of habitat destruction, and maybe a bird you've never heard of going extict, than we are with catching a virus?
Timescales there Stok.
COVID as you said, from infection to symptoms to death is over a much smaller and more relatable time scale compared to climate change. This has always been the issue, people not connecting what they do now to decades into the future. It's too far down the line.
Hopefully post Covid we can remember the sacrifices we made, and understand that these are feasible, real sacrifices which may be needed to be adopted again tackle climate change appropriately.
Unpopular opinion coming - Maybe limiting international flights permanently for example is a good thing for the future? Were we travelling too much already?
To be honest it's not the future I want, but is it the future we need?
Maybe limiting international flights permanently for example is a good thing for the future?
Here's another unpopular opinion. Maybe it's time for a big global carbon tax levied by nations, and countries / companies who don't sign up get whacked with big carbon tariffs. Believe me, that would focus the mind of the execs and their proxies in power pretty quick, Bet those airlines could find a way for carbon neutral flights if that was the case.
"In a brief Twitter thread on Monday morning, ACTU secretary Sally McManus laid out a five-point plan of more preventative value than anything produced by the National Cabinet.
1. Paid pandemic leave. 80 per cent of transmission in Vic was caused in workplaces. One in three workers have no sick leave. Fix it, give all workers sick leave now. The federal government says they will pay for some of it, your Premier has to act to implement it. Don’t wait until it’s too late.
2. Protect aged-care homes. Give adequate permanent shifts in one house. Stop the use of labour hire. Mandatory infection control training. Ensure adequate staffing numbers and trained staff. Prepare a surge workforce. Over 1200 healthcare workers are infected in Vic.
3. Make abattoirs safe. Give adequate permanent shifts in one plant to stop people working across sites. Stop the use of labour hire. Put in place social distancing. Set up testing sites. Make sure safe work practices are enforced.
4. Work from home. If you were working from home in April, you should be now. Limiting the number of times people come in contact with each other limits the virus spreading. Make work from home mandatory for all workers who can while there is community transmission.
5. Make masks wearing compulsory. Sure we had a whinge at first, but now it’s normal. Wearing a mask slows the virus spreading, so is a small price to pay compared to lockdowns & people dying. It changes also changes how you think and behave. Complacency is the big threat of all. There needs to be strong, clear, enforceable rules in workplaces and the community. Leaving it up to individuals and individual employers “doing the right thing” is not enough. This is the clear lesson from Victoria.
Yes, it was aimed at NSW but the message carries to all states. As New Zealand has demonstrated, the virus remains a threat and can break out anywhere until there is a safe vaccine.
Yes, there is a self-serving edge to it – the ACTU has long fought the casualisation and disengagement of the workforce that labour hire structures allow.
But it also makes sense. You know it. I know it. The National Cabinet? No idea."
Facto, Sally's spot on there but her point two. All aged care facilities should already be doing that as part of their FEDERAL government approved operational, accreditation and funding conditions. Infection Control is one of the FEDERAL government's prescribed Outcome Standards for Residents. The FEDERAL government's Accreditation Agency are required to assess, as a condition of FEDERAL government funding, a facility's staff training policy and procedures on a range of matters including Infection Control.
Additionally, the fact that the RC into Aged Care found no current FEDERAL government plan to stop the spread of COVID19 in aged care should be the political scandal of the decade. It is utterly inexcusable. Hundreds dead and thousands infected.
The fact that it takes a union leader to put forward a sensible way forward suggests Morrison and his government have vacated the leadership space just like Trump or Johnson.
In indirectly related news the Westpac Bank announced today that it will not be paying a dividend - looks like those fully franked dividend free cash handouts that the LNP campaigned on are now fully fucked.
Some interesting stuff regarding those nutters pushing the bleach onto other nutters:
Hopefully we can all see eye-to-eye on this one. Lets hope they throw the book at them.
I'd encourage people to have a look at this:
An interesting breakdown by a lawyer, translating a bit of the legalese into normal(ish) english. The documents these nutters have submitted are just wild, far out there on the sovcit scale.
VL - a carbon tax made so much sense....could never believe we voted to remove it in Aus.
Craig - Another thought...the Governments have really stepped in to intervene with Covid, like really stepped in. The entire public isn't exactly keen on this - it's been more of a case where the Gov has taken power somewhat against peoples will (state of emergency/disaster) and put the issue first in front of a lot of things (livelihoods, industries, house prices etc.). I almost get the feeling that either Covid is actually potentially a lot more serious than what's being reported on, or climate change is less of an issue that we think (compared to say, global resource shortages/peak oil/nuclear war). Either way, even if climate change is a slow burner, it's surprising to see the differences in methods of action.
Lets hope the bleach nutter pushers get the lethal injection eh JQ!
With no long term guarantees of Govt subsidised old peoples homes in parts of Europe such as Spain and Italy, many lived at home with family providing care and this was the impetus originally for those rapid high numbers as Covid infection was transmitted by family members.
Same applies in so many poorer countries/regions such as Brazil, India, South America, South Africa, etc.
Australians, Brits and Americans who are more concerned with getting on with their own selfish lives leave it up to the homes to do this work.
However the "for profits" have been allowed to reduce quality whilst Governments ignore.
Yet the family members are the first to point the finger and blame the Govt and institutions.
If any one can tell me that most old age residents want to be in those homes I'm calling BS with some few exceptions.
So the only true alternative is mortality.
Then what is the issue here? Cant families accept their culpability/failings and the forces of nature?
All sympathies to those who have lost family members whilst doing their best under their care.
Cant feel the same for those who have dumped their oldies in homes and then squeal about others being to blame.
Or those who had little choice either for that matter.
Enjoy life or don't live at all.
Cheers and have a great day.
Comparing Covid-19 and Climate change is pretty silly.
With Covid-19 in Australia we can make a huge difference on how it affects us as we have seen in most states where it is close to eliminated, and it's an issue that affects is now.
While with climate change Australia could cut every single emission tomorrow and it would make no difference whatsoever.
Thats not to say we don't do anything, we do its just more about balance.
Plus it's BS that Australia is not tackling climate change, as ive highlighted time and time again, per capita Australia is world leader in roof top solar installations and per capita our rate of renewables uptake is up to four times faster than any other country, emissions in other areas like transport in time will be reduced as electric cars uptake increase as tech improves (getting pretty good now) and the big one prices come down.
Other aspects can also be misleading for instance the increased demand for gas in recent years from OS has been a major cause of our own emissions not going down at rates expected, while in reality us providing gas ensures world emissions decrease.
The Irony of the two topics though is China, China is to blame for world wide Covid issue and China are also by far the worlds biggest carbon emitter.
Please Stunet give me an ignore button for Talking Turkey, Shatners Basoon, Dale Cooper, Factotum, Pupkin, and any new fake profile he decides to create.
Anyway recent four corners episode on Victorias Covid situation is worth a watch.
"...Our government stands apart from most democratic regimes in barring its citizens from departing without an exemption in the era of COVID-19. ...
...Even New Zealand's Jacinda Ardern allows her citizens to leave the country without demanding a bureaucrat decide whether they are worthy of a leave pass."
"...That does not mean it is wise to travel, or that it is risk-free, or that those who leave should expect the passage home to be easy or assisted by the Australian taxpayer. It's just that the purpose of stopping people from leaving Australia on health grounds is tenuous and this is yet another example of the arbitrary use of power that has become a hallmark of this crisis."
"...One argument mounted for keeping the exits shut is that returning Australians will overburden hotel quarantine. But there are limits on the number of people who can return, so those that go now leave in the knowledge that getting back might be the most arduous part of the journey.
And if people filling hotel quarantine is a worry for the federal government, then why is it supporting the push to reboot the international student trade? The new leader in the highly contested field of border irrationality must surely be South Australia, which is boasting it will host a trial quarantine of 300 international students at the same time as it bars regional Victorians from crossing its land border."
south australia should be protesting in the streets! all of australia should be protesting due to this hypocrisy...
in a pandemic? ...protesting in the streets? ...well yeh... its kinda relevant...
aussies cannot leave the country due to health concerns, but we'll import 300 heads from asia through singapore, yes includung chinese people, no ill intent intended to chinese people as individuals, but this is just outrageous, and plain dumb stupid in so many ways! ...no logic ...no sense, at all!
"...Early in this crisis, I asked a senior cabinet minister how the public viewed the government's decision to start closing the international borders to foreigners. "Mate, they want us to put ankle bracelets on them," "
bring on the fucking ankle bracelets I say!
because everything else they are doing just makes no sense at all, and is looking dumber and dumber by the day. once you lose the people, ya fucked, ...we're fucked...
Barring us from leaving is unacceptable and I would think open to legal challenge. The government is entitled to place appropriate restrictions on re-entry but to block people leaving is a demonstration of their authoritarian character.
On the other hand allowing students from China back into the country makes a great deal of sense. As shown in the link below China's statistics indicate that the risk of a student having the virus is low, with appropriate quarantine the risk then approaches zero and is certainly less than for many others who are entering the country.
Although the criteria have not yet been released this small cohort will almost certainly be made up of students close to graduation or the completion of a Ph.D. By doing this Australia is signalling its goodwill towards these students and is giving an indication to others that they have hope of being allowed to continue their studies in the near future. Australian universities are heavily reliant on international students for their funding. A collapse in that market would severely reduce their staff which would impact their ability not only to continue providing quality education to their Australian students, but also to continue their current volume of high quality research. (Look it up yourself if you doubt its value)
The knee jerk reaction "China = Bad" is moronic at the best of times but when it suggests that Australia should shoot itself in the foot by under-mining our universities, it reaches a new low. Chris Uhlmann is being disingenuous in comparing the entry of 300 students into South Australia with the ban on Victorians entering the state. 300 is a manageable cohort in terms of testing and quarantine. The number of Victorians wishing to enter South Australia would initially be orders of magnitude higher and then be an ongoing flow. There is simply no comparison. The SMH is pretty much in China bashing mode these days. With hawks like Peter Hartcher ramping up the aggro and the kind of naiive analysis presented here by Uhlmann, we can be pretty sure that is editorial policy.