COVID-19 Health System Overload Forecaster

Craig's picture
Craig started the topic in Wednesday, 18 Mar 2020 at 7:44pm

I've created a spreadsheet forecast which I'll update as we go..

There's also a website with live running data.. https://sites.google.com/view/stayhomeaustralia

burleigh's picture
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burleigh Wednesday, 26 Jan 2022 at 11:37am
Craig wrote:

I'm giving on the ground accounts what transpired down here.

A big proportion were fairly blasé about getting vaccinated until Delta started spreading like wild fire and then it gave everyone a little kick up the but to protect themselves.

Speaking to many, not just a close circle of friends and this was the general feeling and motivation across the city. IE looks like we're going to get it so get vaccinated.

Without the daily fear campaigns, inflated hospital numbers, no transparency on deaths, lockdowns, campaigns to vaccinate for freedoms & Jobs threatened there is absolutely no way people would have got vaccinated in the numbers they did.

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Blowin Wednesday, 26 Jan 2022 at 11:37am
freeride76 wrote:

"This is likely only the beginning of the covid wars. It will likely take a very long time for the dust to settle here."

Most likely but due to the reasons you mentioned prior to that, I think we will come to some basic, shared understanding of reality.

Or least agree on the rough parameters of it.

I reckon a true accounting will be forty or fifty years away. It’s been too politicised for frank reporting.

How long before we see a settled outcome on the Trump was a Russian agent! / Trump was unfairly delegitimised and persecuted by a partisan corporate media Routines?

Craig's picture
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Craig Wednesday, 26 Jan 2022 at 11:40am

Thanks Burleigh for hypothesising.

I personally didn't think we'd get 80% with the rollout debacle, AZ side effects, hesitancy etc.

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burleigh Wednesday, 26 Jan 2022 at 11:43am
Craig wrote:

Thanks Burleigh for hypothesising.

I personally didn't think we'd get 80% with the rollout debacle, AZ side effects, hesitancy etc.

Whats your thoughts on the 3rd dose Craig? You think it will be mandatory? Will you be rolling up your sleeve? Whats the vibe in Sydney within the community?

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Blowin Wednesday, 26 Jan 2022 at 11:43am
Craig wrote:

I'm giving on the ground accounts what transpired down here.

A big proportion were fairly blasé about getting vaccinated until Delta started spreading like wild fire and then it gave everyone a little kick up the but to protect themselves.

Speaking to many, not just a close circle of friends and this was the general feeling and motivation across the city. IE looks like we're going to get it so get vaccinated.

I didn’t know one person below the age of 60 who thought like this. Even the over 60s were mostly ambivalent.

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gragagan Wednesday, 26 Jan 2022 at 11:49am
Craig wrote:

I'm giving on the ground accounts what transpired down here.

A big proportion were fairly blasé about getting vaccinated until Delta started spreading like wild fire and then it gave everyone a little kick up the but to protect themselves.

Speaking to many, not just a close circle of friends and this was the general feeling and motivation across the city. IE looks like we're going to get it so get vaccinated.

Same thing for me and many that I know. Delta was starting to spread outside of Sydney, and I needed it for work (health care), along with the flu shot. It was no big deal. I wasn't conned, was always going to get it, just wanted to give it 6 months or so after the first roll-outs to observe

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Craig Wednesday, 26 Jan 2022 at 11:52am

With the wave passing I can't see the demand being anything like getting double vaccinated.

I'm in no rush to get the third but have extra time up my sleeve.

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Craig Wednesday, 26 Jan 2022 at 11:53am

Nice Blowin, you're not down here in the community eh.

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Craig Wednesday, 26 Jan 2022 at 11:53am

Seeing as the Northern Beaches was one of the first to hit 90% it's much different vibe when you're in the thick of it.

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burleigh Wednesday, 26 Jan 2022 at 11:54am
bluediamond wrote:
burleigh wrote:
blindboy wrote:

supafreak going back to the vaccination of children the short answer is that, at some stage, they should be vaccinated. There are arguments based on risk/benefit that make some sense now but they won't in a few months time when the case numbers spike with the removal of restrictions and the impact of Omicron. The risk of serious cases in children may be small but the risk of the vaccine is still much lower. If children are not vaccinated it will spread rapidly amongst them exposing those children with existing health problems to an unacceptable risk. Similarly unvaccinated children will pose an increased risk to any vulnerable adults they live with.
As someone in a vulnerable age group I am happy to wait for a booster, one because I am able to take measures to avoid the current low risk of infection, two because I would like to have peak immunity at the peak.of the risk which is a couple of months down the track. If I had to commute everyday on crowded public transport my attitude would probably be different.

You want to vaccinate healthy young kids to keep you safe? Potentially put kids at risk to make you feel ok?
You are sick mate and that’s child abuse.

People have got the jab through pressure of losing their job, I hate to see the pressure the corrupt government is going to apply to try and get jabs in kids arms all without releasing any data.
I bet my house that bluey will get vaccinated early next year.

So ahh, Burleigh, doe's your place have a lap pool?? A little aquarium with live prawns and crayfish prime for scooping out? I like to change my dressing gowns daily so hoping theres a fresh supply lined up.. I'm hoping it has a raised deck overlooking the ocean for a celebratory cigar in said gown!! hahaha. :-P
(btw...assuming early next year meant January!)

Im a simple man BD, no lap pool sorry!

I also believe that sea creatures belong in the sea, so you wont find any crustaceans in my home either.

I do own a dressing gown though, and linen sheets.

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burleigh Wednesday, 26 Jan 2022 at 12:00pm
Craig wrote:

With the wave passing I can't see the demand being anything like getting double vaccinated.

I'm in no rush to get the third but have extra time up my sleeve.

Very different to the vibe up here on the Gold Coast from my observations. I believe there will be huge hesitancy and not just because the wave has passed.

The lies and manipulation throughout the vaccination blitz have left a stain and its showing. Hardcore people with similar views to Vic and Co have told me they will not be getting a third.

Blowin's picture
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Blowin Wednesday, 26 Jan 2022 at 12:09pm
Craig wrote:

Seeing as the Northern Beaches was one of the first to hit 90% it's much different vibe when you're in the thick of it.

I don’t know many in the Northern Beaches but I know plenty of crew around Sydney and South and the” Delta is coming!!!!” Vibe was not a thing at all.

Northern beaches seems to be a bit more fashion forward with whatever is trending on their fabulous social feeds though.

No one here gave much of a fuck. I don’t think that it’s because they’re detached from the threat, more just detached he’d from the social pressures to conform to the flighty frivolities of the mob.

As is evidenced by the lack of twin finned mid lengths, man buns and high waisted nappy bikinis .

freeride76's picture
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freeride76 Wednesday, 26 Jan 2022 at 12:04pm
Blowin wrote:
freeride76 wrote:

"This is likely only the beginning of the covid wars. It will likely take a very long time for the dust to settle here."

Most likely but due to the reasons you mentioned prior to that, I think we will come to some basic, shared understanding of reality.

Or least agree on the rough parameters of it.

I reckon a true accounting will be forty or fifty years away. It’s been too politicised for frank reporting.

How long before we see a settled outcome on the Trump was a Russian agent! / Trump was unfairly delegitimised and persecuted by a partisan corporate media Routines?

Mueller report already dealt with that.
I can't even seen any highly partisan democrat media still on that track.

Blowin's picture
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Blowin Wednesday, 26 Jan 2022 at 12:06pm
freeride76 wrote:
Blowin wrote:
freeride76 wrote:

"This is likely only the beginning of the covid wars. It will likely take a very long time for the dust to settle here."

Most likely but due to the reasons you mentioned prior to that, I think we will come to some basic, shared understanding of reality.

Or least agree on the rough parameters of it.

I reckon a true accounting will be forty or fifty years away. It’s been too politicised for frank reporting.

How long before we see a settled outcome on the Trump was a Russian agent! / Trump was unfairly delegitimised and persecuted by a partisan corporate media Routines?

Mueller report already dealt with that.
I can't even seen any highly partisan democrat media still on that track.

You’d better not tell Blindboy. Or the Washington Post.

It’d break their hearts to hear that you’ve fallen for the Russian misinformation campaign.

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Roadkill Wednesday, 26 Jan 2022 at 12:12pm
Craig wrote:

With the wave passing I can't see the demand being anything like getting double vaccinated.

I'm in no rush to get the third but have extra time up my sleeve.

Most I know that have had 3…are not terribly concerned about getting another.
I have no real interest in getting a 4th shot at this stage.

The uptake on a 4th shot will be interesting.

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sypkan Wednesday, 26 Jan 2022 at 12:24pm

"As is evidenced by the lack of twin finned mid lengths, man buns and high waisted nappy bikinis ."

aren't they a turn for the worst...

the high wasted nappy bikinis

fashion so funny, nothing attractive about them at all...

similar can be said for the other two examples

funniest thing is, a chick walks on beach in a 90's throwback high cut baywatch one piece... and all those once highly fashionable high waster nappy hotties suddenly look like a bunch of grandmas...

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gragagan Wednesday, 26 Jan 2022 at 12:24pm

I'm in no hurry to get a third. If the next mutation goes back towards delta then I probably will. If it's a more severe version of omichron then I'll wait for the new omichron vaccine (due march?) If it's a less severe version of omichron (which I've probably had already) then probably not.

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sypkan Wednesday, 26 Jan 2022 at 12:29pm
freeride76 wrote:
Blowin wrote:
freeride76 wrote:

"This is likely only the beginning of the covid wars. It will likely take a very long time for the dust to settle here."

Most likely but due to the reasons you mentioned prior to that, I think we will come to some basic, shared understanding of reality.

Or least agree on the rough parameters of it.

I reckon a true accounting will be forty or fifty years away. It’s been too politicised for frank reporting.

How long before we see a settled outcome on the Trump was a Russian agent! / Trump was unfairly delegitimised and persecuted by a partisan corporate media Routines?

Mueller report already dealt with that.
I can't even seen any highly partisan democrat media still on that track.

mueller may well have dealt with it... not sure about the rest...

there's a few nutters still desperately grasping at that narrative... geez we've even got some on here...

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sypkan Wednesday, 26 Jan 2022 at 1:00pm

re. the covid wars...

it'll last forever

some attribute all successes to vaccines and lockdowns...

some totally defiantly dismiss the whole response...

truth is, its almost impossible to know how effective measures were

did vaccines really stop 1000s of deaths?

or are declining death rates due to things like;

the vulnerable falling in initial waves....

natural immunity building...

inproving treatment options....

waning virility of the strains...

etc.

personally, having closely watched the indonesian experience, like really really closely... and their haphazard responses...

where there were lockdowns, facemasks, social distancing, work from home etc. measures enacted...

but they were only oh so so loosely adhered to... in that super loose indo ways 'que sera sera' fashion we all love...

(well some of us...)

combined with their super low vax rates, of a largely shit vax (chinavax)

I have no doubt the vaccine efficacy and contribution has been totally overstated, both in terms of the initial marketing, and hindsight attribution....

no doubt whatsoever

that doesn't make me 'anti-vaxxer' triggered ones...

that means I think the vaccines served a purpose... but with my experiences outside of oz, I can see there is some serious over attributing going on, as people vehemently justify their positions

let the war rage on...

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sypkan Wednesday, 26 Jan 2022 at 12:52pm

there may also be a touch of...

'it's much easier to fool someone than convince someone they have been fooled'

very likely a little more than a touch...

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Roadkill Wednesday, 26 Jan 2022 at 12:56pm
gragagan wrote:

I'm in no hurry to get a third. If the next mutation goes back towards delta then I probably will. If it's a more severe version of omichron then I'll wait for the new omichron vaccine (due march?) If it's a less severe version of omichron (which I've probably had already) then probably not.

Omicron does give reason to pause.

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indo-dreaming Wednesday, 26 Jan 2022 at 1:25pm
Supafreak wrote:

Omicron Is Spreading. Resistance Is Futile
The good news is that the variant’s mildness makes preventing infection much less of a priority. As the Omicron wave crests, there’s bad news and good news. The bad news is that the main strategies for slowing its spread—repeated testing, masks and vaccine boosters—are largely futile for that purpose. The good news is that while protecting the vulnerable remains vital, slowing the spread of the virus needn’t be the priority. The biggest danger from Omicron is probably acute hospital staffing shortages, in part because of asymptomatic employees who stay home from work after testing positive.

Although Covid testing can be useful, it also has important limitations. The “gold standard” PCR tests are frequently too sensitive; research has shown that in many cases people who test positive are no longer contagious. The increasingly used rapid antigen tests have the opposite problem, often failing to detect infections during the earlier part of the five-day isolation period of presumed contagiousness. This coronavirus, especially the Omicron variant, is so fast-moving that mass testing and contact tracing, and probably even isolation and quarantine, can’t slow it down significantly. The U.K. and other countries, unlike the U.S., already had widespread rapid-testing capacity during their recent surges, yet they experienced the same meteoric rise in cases. As with other interventions such as booster shots, testing is most useful for those at high risk of serious complications, who might benefit from early treatment.

As for masking, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recently acknowledged that cloth masks do relatively little to prevent spread. Some experts on coronaviruses, including epidemiologist Michael Osterholm, for nearly two years have questioned the efficacy of masks. A recent rigorous review by his University of Minnesota research group concludes: “We are well past the emergency phase of this pandemic, and it should be well-known by now that wearing cloth face coverings or surgical masks, universal or otherwise, has a very minor role to play. . . . It is time to stop overselling their efficacy and unrealistic expectations about their ability to end the pandemic.” The first large randomized community-level study, published last month in Science, found that while generic surgical masks provided a modest (about 10%) reduction in the risk of infection from Delta, cloth masks didn’t significantly reduce risk. Masks may be even less protective against an extremely contagious variant like Omicron.

That has led to calls for mandatory N95-type masks, which are more effective but harder to use. Some schools have even mandated them for children. Yet two years is a long time for anyone’s face to be covered for many hours a day, and it’s an interminably long time for young children, possibly leading to lasting psycho-social and other harms. Like Delta and earlier variants, Omicron doesn’t seriously threaten the vast majority of children; preliminary evidence suggests much less risk for youth than from Delta. An increasing number of public-health experts, including infectious-disease specialist Monica Gandhi, have called for ending school mask mandates soon. And while vaccines and boosters continue to offer strong protection against serious illness and death—and are therefore vitally important to those at high risk—they’re less effective at preventing infection, especially with the Omicron variant. While a new CDC study finds that boosters substantially reduce risk of infection as well as hospitalization from Omicron, countries like the U.K. and Israel that had widespread booster coverage before Omicron struck have also seen unprecedented surges in cases.

In any case, even if you get a booster now, the current surge probably will have subsided by the time immunity kicks in. It’s possible that future variants will arise against which currently administered boosters would still be useful, although by then immunity may have waned significantly. The European Medicines Agency recently cautioned that repeated boosters may weaken the immune system over time. Which brings us to the good news: Because the new variant is relatively mild and so many people already have some immunity from vaccines, prior infection or both, Omicron’s explosive spread is much less threatening than previous waves. A recent Southern California study looked at more than 50,000 patients infected with the new variant. Not one required mechanical ventilation and only one died, compared with 14 deaths and 11 ventilations out of some 17,000 infected by the Delta variant during the same period. Consistent with evidence from other countries, hospitalizations were considerably lower and average hospital stays much shorter among Omicron than Delta patients.

Although reported numbers of “Covid hospitalizations” are up nationally, these figures include patients admitted for other reasons who incidentally test positive. Based on data from several states and the U.K., it appears that roughly half these admissions likely aren’t caused mainly by the virus. Health and Human Services Department data indicate the total number of patients in U.S hospitals has hardly budged over the past six months. Because the new variant primarily targets the upper airways instead of the lungs, doctors report that few patients are requiring ventilation or even supplemental oxygen. Christopher Murray of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation estimates in the Lancet that the number of Omicron deaths “seems to be similar in most countries to the level of a bad influenza season in northern hemisphere countries.” In 2017-18, the flu caused some 52,000 deaths in the U.S., probably peaking at more than 1,500 a day.

Public-health authorities are beginning to come to terms with the passing of the Covid emergency. Six experts who advised the Biden transition, including Mr. Osterholm, earlier this month called for a pivot toward accepting Covid as an endemic disease, following the example of several European countries. As Anthony Fauci has acknowledged, “just about everybody” will eventually become infected. Some scientists have even suggested that Omicron may end up providing a kind of global “superimmunity” against serious illness from future variants. It’s past time to shift focus from trying to stamp out all new infections to protecting the most vulnerable from severe disease directly through vaccination and other evidence-based measures and alleviating hospital staffing shortages. Ending mask mandates, de-emphasizing isolation and encouraging vaccination ought to be a compromise most of us can live with.

Mr. Halperin is an adjunct professor at the Gillings School of Global Public Health at the University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill and author of “Facing Covid Without Panic.” https://www.wsj.com/articles/omicron-is-spreading-resistance-is-futile-m...

Good read

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Stok Wednesday, 26 Jan 2022 at 1:32pm

@sypkan, far out mate, do you know something that the rest of us don't?

"I have no doubt the vaccine efficacy and contribution has been totally overstated, both in terms of the initial marketing, and hindsight attribution....
no doubt whatsoever"

Feel the same way about seatbelts? Or penicillin?

What about this little nugget:

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/267364503_Ethical_Analysis_of_t...

We've been doing weird shit before covid came along, that's for sure. Where are the anti airport-body-scanner groups? Why do vaccines draw such vehemence?

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sypkan Wednesday, 26 Jan 2022 at 1:47pm

ok stok

explain to me how life is basically back to normal in indo on a pissy rate of vaccination, of a totally shit vaccine, and no one is dying in the streets...and oz is an absolute shitshow?

go

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burleigh Wednesday, 26 Jan 2022 at 1:48pm
Stok wrote:

@sypkan, far out mate, do you know something that the rest of us don't?

"I have no doubt the vaccine efficacy and contribution has been totally overstated, both in terms of the initial marketing, and hindsight attribution....
no doubt whatsoever"

Feel the same way about seatbelts? Or penicillin?

What about this little nugget:

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/267364503_Ethical_Analysis_of_t...

We've been doing weird shit before covid came along, that's for sure. Where are the anti airport-body-scanner groups? Why do vaccines draw such vehemence?

Oh look Mr education is comparing the covid vaccine to a seatbelt.

Ill do a comparison for you.

If the covid vaccine is a seatbelt, it’s sticky tape that you wrap around yourself and the seat.

Then the sticky tape starts to peel off very quickly so you put more sticky tape on, and every three months you apply more sticky tape.

Then when you do get in a car crash you the sticky tape breaks and offers very little protection.

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sypkan Wednesday, 26 Jan 2022 at 1:53pm

"Why do vaccines draw such vehemence?"

they don't... for me...

but the outright lies and orgy of obfuscation does...

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goofyfoot Wednesday, 26 Jan 2022 at 1:59pm
sypkan wrote:

ok stok

explain to me how life is basically back to normal in indo on a pissy rate of vaccination, of a totally shit vaccine, and no one is dying in the streets...and oz is an absolute shitshow?

go

I’d like to know this

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indo-dreaming Wednesday, 26 Jan 2022 at 2:07pm
sypkan wrote:

ok stok

explain to me how life is basically back to normal in indo on a pissy rate of vaccination, of a totally shit vaccine, and no one is dying in the streets...and oz is an absolute shitshow?

go

Indo is getting it's Omicron wave now though.

I agree though that a lot of these measures dont seem as effective as we have been led to beleive, and its clear when waves take off they find their natural peak then die.

We saw that in Indonesia and India with Delta, and have now clearly seen it happen with Omicron in many countries including Australia.

They say Omicron gives resistance against Delta, but Delta infections dont give any real resistance to Omicron, so i think we can expect to see a large fast wave in Indonesia in the next month, but being so much more mild compared to Delta its probably not going to be as big deal as there Delta wave.

Heres Indos start of Omicron wave from 3 months snap shot

But looks like nothing yet compared to Delta wave, but notice how low cases numbers went and stayed stable after the wave. (but could also be about numbers tested)

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donweather Wednesday, 26 Jan 2022 at 2:41pm

I’d be very cautious about any numbers coming out of indo. 90% of the people there who get covid wouldn’t even get tested so their stats wouldn’t even be showing the true numbers of covid.

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goofyfoot Wednesday, 26 Jan 2022 at 2:45pm
donweather wrote:

I’d be very cautious about any numbers coming out of indo. 90% of the people there who get covid wouldn’t even get tested so their stats wouldn’t even be showing the true numbers of covid.

Yeah good point don. That’s true

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Stok Wednesday, 26 Jan 2022 at 2:52pm
burleigh wrote:

Oh look Mr education is comparing the covid vaccine to a seatbelt.

You know, having an education is not something you insult people about.....unless you're a loudmouth meat head from the goldie who owns a mcmansion, a jetski and a Jeep cherokee.

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burleigh Wednesday, 26 Jan 2022 at 2:59pm
Stok wrote:
burleigh wrote:

Oh look Mr education is comparing the covid vaccine to a seatbelt.

You know, having an education is not something you insult people about.....unless you're a loudmouth meat head from the goldie who owns a mcmansion, a jetski and a Jeep cherokee.

I hate to break the news Stok, having an education doesn't make you smart. You're a fine example.

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Roadkill Wednesday, 26 Jan 2022 at 3:02pm
Stok wrote:
burleigh wrote:

Oh look Mr education is comparing the covid vaccine to a seatbelt.

You know, having an education is not something you insult people about.....unless you're a loudmouth meat head from the goldie who owns a mcmansion, a jetski and a Jeep cherokee.

I wouldn’t give too much credit in owning a McMansion, JetSki and a Jeep.

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Roadkill Wednesday, 26 Jan 2022 at 3:03pm
Roadkill wrote:
Stok wrote:
burleigh wrote:

Oh look Mr education is comparing the covid vaccine to a seatbelt.

You know, having an education is not something you insult people about.....unless you're a loudmouth meat head from the goldie who owns a mcmansion, a jetski and a Jeep cherokee.

I wouldn’t give too much credit in owning a McMansion, JetSki and a Jeep.

burleigh is a mediocre individual….no great heights would have been obtained in anything. :)

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sypkan Wednesday, 26 Jan 2022 at 3:14pm

while that is true donweather... deaths
and sickness in the streets are a pretty clear measure...

indo got smashed in the delta wave, sick crew everywhere, hospitals overflowing with tents in carparks, and some pretty reliable, but not overwhelming, corresponding death statistics...

the covid sites that follow the testing and cases pretty much followed the patterns perfectly, even as rudimentary as they are...

though I would argue the real case numbers are at at least 10x more than the actual cases reported... probably more like 20x ++

as indo points out, cases steadily going up now with omncron, the bali numbers went as low as 1 - 2 new cases a day a month or so ago, after recording almost 2000 cases a day through delta...

todày they are 96, coming off a long running average of around 200 cases a day throughout the pandemic

I'd say omicron is already rife, the less virilant strain means many people just will not get tested and / or not end up in the medical system / statistics...

'it's just the flu bro'

now...

hopefully...

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Stok Wednesday, 26 Jan 2022 at 3:11pm

@Roadkill, all on finance of course

@Burleigh, let me guess, you have street smarts?

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Roadkill Wednesday, 26 Jan 2022 at 3:16pm
Stok wrote:

@Roadkill, all on finance of course

@Burleigh, let me guess, you have street smarts?

I am just average. Nothing too lofty attained myself. No real street smarts.

Just an average house…which makes me happy.

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Stok Wednesday, 26 Jan 2022 at 3:18pm

@sypkan, do you have actual reliable sources on the streets of indo?

Remember, covid is mild enough that it's not unusual for one person to not know anyone who's died from it. So knowing one or two locals, or even 10 or 20 locals, doesn't really give you the whole picture of millions of people spread across islands.

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sypkan Wednesday, 26 Jan 2022 at 3:36pm

dude, I know people who have died of it

and I follow legit. stats

I'm not the denialist / conspiracy theorist / anti-vax nutter you are so desperately trying to paint me as...

but carry on...

champ

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Stok Wednesday, 26 Jan 2022 at 3:43pm

So...you follow legit stat's, but have no doubt the stat's are overstated regarding vaccines. Seems a bit conflicting to me.

P.s. love being called champ, very validating for me ;)

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burleigh Wednesday, 26 Jan 2022 at 3:52pm
Roadkill wrote:
Roadkill wrote:
Stok wrote:
burleigh wrote:

Oh look Mr education is comparing the covid vaccine to a seatbelt.

You know, having an education is not something you insult people about.....unless you're a loudmouth meat head from the goldie who owns a mcmansion, a jetski and a Jeep cherokee.

I wouldn’t give too much credit in owning a McMansion, JetSki and a Jeep.

burleigh is a mediocre individual….no great heights would have been obtained in anything. :)

Under 40 and created 3 successful businesses that now allow me time with my kids, to surf and enjoy life would be a success in my eyes.

And also the freedom to not be jabbed with the love juice.

But carrry on

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sypkan Wednesday, 26 Jan 2022 at 3:52pm
Stok wrote:

So...you follow legit stat's, but have no doubt the stat's are overstated regarding vaccines. Seems a bit conflicting to me.

P.s. love being called champ, very validating for me ;)

mate you're conflicting

and desperately putting words in my mouth now...

either stop it... or go harder...

champ

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sypkan Wednesday, 26 Jan 2022 at 3:56pm

and you got a reply on indo there doc.?

the numbers are all available

Im not making shit up

life pretty much normal... oz a shitshow..

how?

just a hypothesis...

a guess... an idea...

a desperate ( but dismissive) explanation perhaps...

still waiting

Roadkill's picture
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Roadkill Wednesday, 26 Jan 2022 at 4:00pm
burleigh wrote:
Roadkill wrote:
Roadkill wrote:
Stok wrote:
burleigh wrote:

Oh look Mr education is comparing the covid vaccine to a seatbelt.

You know, having an education is not something you insult people about.....unless you're a loudmouth meat head from the goldie who owns a mcmansion, a jetski and a Jeep cherokee.

I wouldn’t give too much credit in owning a McMansion, JetSki and a Jeep.

burleigh is a mediocre individual….no great heights would have been obtained in anything. :)

Under 40 and created 3 successful businesses that now allow me time with my kids, to surf and enjoy life would be a success in my eyes.

And also the freedom to not be jabbed with the love juice.

But carrry on

Anonymous poster posts post with zero proof.
Gotcha.

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Stok Wednesday, 26 Jan 2022 at 4:16pm

I'm picturing 3 MLMs and pyramid schemes there Burleigh ;)

indo-dreaming's picture
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indo-dreaming Wednesday, 26 Jan 2022 at 4:31pm
donweather wrote:

I’d be very cautious about any numbers coming out of indo. 90% of the people there who get covid wouldn’t even get tested so their stats wouldn’t even be showing the true numbers of covid.

Thats true, but you still have to go of something, i tend to agree with Sypkan's points below.

Reports from my wife's family is the place in her city where you can go and quarantine is full again, it went empty for a long time and hospitals went empty from Covid cases that were previously literally overflowing, no reports on hospitals yet though.

sypkan wrote:

while that is true donweather... deaths
and sickness in the streets are a pretty clear measure...

indo got smashed in the delta wave, sick crew everywhere, hospitals overflowing with tents in carparks, and some pretty reliable, but not overwhelming, corresponding death statistics...

the covid sites that follow the testing and cases pretty much followed the patterns perfectly, even as rudimentary as they are...

though I would argue the real case numbers are at at least 10x more than the actual cases reported... probably more like 20x ++

as indo points out, cases steadily going up now with omncron, the bali numbers went as low as 1 - 2 new cases a day a month or so ago, after recording almost 2000 cases a day through delta...

todày they are 96, coming off a long running average of around 200 cases a day throughout the pandemic

I'd say omicron is already rife, the less virilant strain means many people just will not get tested and / or not end up in the medical system / statistics...

'it's just the flu bro'

now...

hopefully...

I think it's going to be interesting to see the stats because like you say, being milder many might not get tested, but like you say even with delta it would be a tint fraction of real cases.

bluediamond's picture
bluediamond's picture
bluediamond Wednesday, 26 Jan 2022 at 4:37pm
Blowin wrote:
Alana_a wrote:
gsco wrote:
Stok wrote:

Also - @gsco, see what you've done? Don't encourage BD....for all of our sakes.

Just a small deflection of blame there... I'd personally hold myself accountable for arguing with someone all night in an online forum, as though they're actually my actions that I chose to do and was hence responsible for myself.

I think you make some great contributions to the debate but you seem to get offside with a large chunk of people in here by thinking you're smarter and more informed than them, openly presenting yourself as such and as some kind of gatekeeper of wisdom, and openly label and write them off as basically uneducated, uninformed, etc, anti vaxers, with mental problems.

I made the same mistake when I first started contributing whereby I thought I was smarter, more educated and better at debate etc than these people in here and treated them like that, but I was quickly humbled or at least set upon and fairly relentlessly abused until I treated them with more respect and as equal human beings.

I'm not perfect and am in no way repository of knowledge or intelligence, and although I've made some contributions people seemed to like, it's clear that I myself am a little unstable and don't handle the whole covid situation very well personally, wrt to whole greyness of the situation, lockdowns, boosters, child vaccinations, the media, government incompetency, etc... But at least I now treat people in here as equals.

I don't like how people keep trying to convince BD that he has mental problems and needs help. I spent the better part of my late teens and 20s toiling away with shovel in hand on concreting job sites under the hot Aussie sun with a bunch of solid battlers who seem just like him, who wear their hearts on their sleeves, think for themselves and live by their beliefs, and never pack it in or blindly accept authority. Even though I went on to do a masters and PhD, and then work in the finance industry, one thing I've learnt is I'm not in any way smarter or better than those guys I used to slave away with digging holes in the dirt.

Happy Australia Day.

And BD I hope your friend is ok and pulls through.

What a beautiful , honest post.

Now let the shit show begin

Yep. Was excellent.

Stay strong BD . Whatever your choices. Don’t let the negativity and spite of a couple of these clowns influence your situation. Things are good. Coming up to a good time of year for waves in your location.

Cheers Blowie. Had our differences on here, but a new found respect for you and your stand for what's right. Cheers GSCO and crew. Good to see the cream rise to the top. And yep Goofy! haha. I think i've made my point for now. ;-)

Supafreak's picture
Supafreak's picture
Supafreak Wednesday, 26 Jan 2022 at 5:13pm

Lakeland Regional joins national study to see if ivermectin is effective against COVID-19 https://www.theledger.com/story/news/coronavirus/2022/01/23/does-ivermec.... It’s been over a year since Dr Kory fronted the NIH who have a neutral stance on ivermectin . Cant rush these things. I see they have supply issues same as the Oxford trials in UK which were also put on hold .

burleigh's picture
burleigh's picture
burleigh Wednesday, 26 Jan 2022 at 5:45pm
Stok wrote:

I'm picturing 3 MLMs and pyramid schemes there Burleigh ;)

Do you want to buy some essential oils? Haha

Stok's picture
Stok's picture
Stok Wednesday, 26 Jan 2022 at 7:22pm
bluediamond wrote:

Cheers Blowie. Had our differences on here, but a new found respect for you and your stand for what's right. Cheers GSCO and crew. Good to see the cream rise to the top. And yep Goofy! haha. I think i've made my point for now. ;-)

Made your point?

I was genuinely concerned for your well-being with the tyrade of childish insults and straight out confusing posts.

Actually glad to see you are OK.

But seriously - LOL - the shit you posted yesterday was like an insight to the insanity the anti vax crew all have as their underlying foundations of their ideas. Dark, repressed, frightened and fanciful thoughts. 80% of the world are dumb c*nts! Hahahah.

The embarrassing thing is you applaud Blowin for his stand for what's right.....you really are long gone mate. No one is trying to get you, no one is trying to do anything other than what will actually provide the best overall outcome for all of us. Sure, there'd be some carnts capitalising off this debacle, on both sides, but the government and experts who advise them are actually not out to get you - and you want to fight them?

Coming from hermit kingdom WA, it does make sense that you're more scared of the injection than the virus, but all around the world, the virus has ripped through populations. The 100k reactions to the jab compared to the 48M doses given in Aus would pale in comparison to the damage this virus would do unchecked in an unvaxxed population. It's horrible what happened to your friend, but it doesn't make you right, and everyone else wrong.