COVID-19 Health System Overload Forecaster

Craig's picture
Craig started the topic in Wednesday, 18 Mar 2020 at 7:44pm

I've created a spreadsheet forecast which I'll update as we go..

There's also a website with live running data.. https://sites.google.com/view/stayhomeaustralia

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indo-dreaming Saturday, 22 Jan 2022 at 8:30pm

Deaths might be at their peak now because they lag case numbers, but case number have been falling for over a week, and falling fast, few weeks time case numbers will be low again but a large chunk of community will have the added benefit of anti bodies.

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poo-man Saturday, 22 Jan 2022 at 9:01pm

New study out on ivermectin

https://www.cureus.com/articles/82162

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gromfull Saturday, 22 Jan 2022 at 11:48pm
saltyone wrote:

Ditto Thanks for sharing gromfull-helpful practical advice .
All govt health departments should be sharing this information with the public

Exactly saltyone, I'm on my 7th day of isolation for covid, once you test positive you get some basic info from NSW health, basicly saying to stay home and fester, treat your symptoms with panadol and ibuprofin, if you get bad see your doctor, wtf,
Two years and what 700k of infections and that's it, I get a link to this doctor and get more info from her than the government I pay my taxes to and all they have is take a panadol and lye down, shamefull
Why are they not giving out tips like this
Why not early treatment like other countries,
Makes you think the big pharmaceutical companies are running the show becuase there is no money in cures ,

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shoredump Sunday, 23 Jan 2022 at 5:10am

Hey Indo if Omi has one death every 5000 then that’s 0.02% or as Blowin likes to say 9.98% survival rate. That I assume includes all the fatties and granny’s but not the asymptomatic so if you want to work it out for a healthy sub 50 year old who has excellent lungs thanks to all that duckdiving then just slide it back a couple more decimal points

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poo-man Sunday, 23 Jan 2022 at 5:40am

And on that ivermectin thing. I don't really have a position either way but time and again we have been told that there's no evidence it does anything or it causes more harm and it's a horse tranquiliser. And no major proper peer reviewed study with a large sample size. But obviously something happened in parts of India as the Indian variant which became delta was wiped out reasonably quickly. So is this recent study that came out going to change anything or will it get buried ? If it doesn't harm you and the alternative is to stay home and take a panadol then surely that's a better option for many people.

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burleigh Sunday, 23 Jan 2022 at 6:20am

Our government relies on big pharma for their own studies (crazy right) for their own drugs.
Big pharma are not going to spend money on a study for ivermectin because there is no patient.
No patient, no study, no government approval.

Instead, they make their own wonder pill with patent (wonder what’s in it) then give our government the study for approval.

It’s all about $$$ and nothing to do with health

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shoredump Sunday, 23 Jan 2022 at 7:09am
Roadkill wrote:

https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/my-nightmare-in-hospital-as-...

“Up to 7000 staff in Victoria are missing every day due to furloughing, and it shows”

Know your enemy

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burleigh Sunday, 23 Jan 2022 at 7:56am
Roadkill wrote:

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/covid-19-omicron-new-sub-variant-under-...

Nothing like a bit of main stream media propaganda to wake up to Roadkill.

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Roadkill Sunday, 23 Jan 2022 at 8:05am

Meatloaf was anti vaxer, anti masker, anti science, anti public health. He mocked public health orders and used his platform to encourage others to ignore precautions.
Told a journalist, if I die, I die.
Covid 1. Meatloaf 0.

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The real Donald... Sunday, 23 Jan 2022 at 8:07am
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The real Donald... Sunday, 23 Jan 2022 at 8:13am
Roadkill wrote:

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/covid-19-omicron-new-sub-variant-under-...

Best get your alpha booster ASAP whilst you wait for your omnicon specific booster to be released in March.

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Roadkill Sunday, 23 Jan 2022 at 8:17am
The real Donald Trump wrote:
Roadkill wrote:

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/covid-19-omicron-new-sub-variant-under-...

Best get your alpha booster ASAP whilst you wait for your omnicon specific booster to be released in March.

Thanks for the tip, snowflake.

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burleigh Sunday, 23 Jan 2022 at 8:19am
Roadkill wrote:

Meatloaf was anti vaxer, anti masker, anti science, anti public health. He mocked public health orders and used his platform to encourage others to ignore precautions.
Told a journalist, if I die, I die.
Covid 1. Meatloaf 0.

Be a better person than this mate

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The real Donald... Sunday, 23 Jan 2022 at 8:25am
Roadkill wrote:
The real Donald Trump wrote:
Roadkill wrote:

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/covid-19-omicron-new-sub-variant-under-...

Best get your alpha booster ASAP whilst you wait for your omnicon specific booster to be released in March.

Thanks for the tip, snowflake.

https://www.theblaze.com/op-ed/horowitz-the-very-concerning-data-from-sc...

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The real Donald... Sunday, 23 Jan 2022 at 8:27am
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Roadkill Sunday, 23 Jan 2022 at 8:27am
burleigh wrote:
Roadkill wrote:

Meatloaf was anti vaxer, anti masker, anti science, anti public health. He mocked public health orders and used his platform to encourage others to ignore precautions.
Told a journalist, if I die, I die.
Covid 1. Meatloaf 0.

Be a better person than this mate

“used his platform to encourage others to ignore precautions.”

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Supafreak Sunday, 23 Jan 2022 at 8:34am
The real Donald Trump wrote:

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(22)00090-3/fulltext

Lancet links don’t copy for some reason , I and others have tried with same results .

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tylerdurden Sunday, 23 Jan 2022 at 8:35am

The reason why you won't get that at-home management advice from NSW Health is because the NCCET do not recommend them.
They are on the "only in research" list, which includes the generic term "other disease-modifying treatments", which presumably covers the povidone-iodine nasal rinse

https://covid19evidence.net.au/wp-content/uploads/FLOWCHART-12-DMTS-FOR-...

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The real Donald... Sunday, 23 Jan 2022 at 8:36am
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The real Donald... Sunday, 23 Jan 2022 at 9:03am
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frog Sunday, 23 Jan 2022 at 9:15am

Vaccination provides short term protection from symptomic disease - 10 to 20 weeks. But, fortunately protection against severe disease remains much longer.

Vax not so great at limiting transmission - so messaging and policies based on that are weak - BUT is holding up well longer term in protecting population against severe disease.

Omicron protects against delta - not the other way around.

All of this is weirdly fortunate in acting to wind down the pandemic.

Better to get omicron sooner after vax than later.

Anti vax arguing is so yesterday.

99.5% of USA cases now omicron!

Our saviour.

All hail Omicron. Praise be.

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Alana_a Sunday, 23 Jan 2022 at 9:15am
Roadkill wrote:
Meatloaf was anti vaxer, anti masker, anti science, anti public health. He mocked public health orders and used his platform to encourage others to ignore precautions.
Told a journalist, if I die, I die.
Covid 1. Meatloaf 0.[/quote

Using meatloaf as an example is idiotic.
If you can think just a little bit harder on your subject matter you just might realise you’re example is exactly the point what blowin, Burleigh have been trying to get across into your thick head

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Vic Local Sunday, 23 Jan 2022 at 9:56am

Hey Alana_a
burleigh and blowin's main argument is ridiculous though. With or without meatloaf.
Nobody disagrees with their point about being young and healthy helps protect you from covid. That's obvious.
But it's equally obvious that getting vaccinated also helps protect you (and others around you) against covid. These muppets keep screaming "It's poison" and "It doesn't work" every fucking day thinking that repetition actually makes their bullshit truthful.
Until these clowns find a cure for old age and medical bad luck, they should be called out for their dangerous bullshit every single time they spread it.

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Roadkill Sunday, 23 Jan 2022 at 10:02am
Alana_a][quote=Roadkill wrote:

Meatloaf was anti vaxer, anti masker, anti science, anti public health. He mocked public health orders and used his platform to encourage others to ignore precautions.
Told a journalist, if I die, I die.
Covid 1. Meatloaf 0.[/quote

Using meatloaf as an example is idiotic.
If you can think just a little bit harder on your subject matter you just might realise you’re example is exactly the point what blowin, Burleigh have been trying to get across into your thick head

burleigh. “Fuck the Drs and Nurses, they choose the job, they should stop whinging and suck up.”

burleigh, “old fat people die anyhow.”

burleigh, “it’s a cult.”

burleigh is the last person capable of giving advice.

blowin..is the same level as burleigh.

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burleigh Sunday, 23 Jan 2022 at 10:50am
Vic Local wrote:

Hey Alana_a
burleigh and blowin's main argument is ridiculous though. With or without meatloaf.
Nobody disagrees with their point about being young and healthy helps protect you from covid. That's obvious.
But it's equally obvious that getting vaccinated also helps protect you (and others around you) against covid. These muppets keep screaming "It's poison" and "It doesn't work" every fucking day thinking that repetition actually makes their bullshit truthful.
Until these clowns find a cure for old age and medical bad luck, they should be called out for their dangerous bullshit every single time they spread it.

Being vaccinated clearly is very limited in protecting yourself if at all (remember the CEO of Pfizer saying this) and it does NOT protect the people around you.
You lie, the misinformation you spread is dangerous

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burleigh Sunday, 23 Jan 2022 at 10:51am
Roadkill][quote=Alana_a wrote:
Roadkill wrote:

Meatloaf was anti vaxer, anti masker, anti science, anti public health. He mocked public health orders and used his platform to encourage others to ignore precautions.
Told a journalist, if I die, I die.
Covid 1. Meatloaf 0.[/quote

Using meatloaf as an example is idiotic.
If you can think just a little bit harder on your subject matter you just might realise you’re example is exactly the point what blowin, Burleigh have been trying to get across into your thick head

burleigh. “Fuck the Drs and Nurses, they choose the job, they should stop whinging and suck up.”

burleigh, “old fat people die anyhow.”

burleigh, “it’s a cult.”

burleigh is the last person capable of giving advice.

blowin..is the same level as burleigh.

Try harder Toadkill, it’s getting embarrassing

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burleigh Sunday, 23 Jan 2022 at 10:54am
Roadkill wrote:

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-omicron-new-variant-threatens-to-...

I’m sure you will have another injection for long covid very soon that doesn’t work Roadkill.
Will that make you feel safe if the premiers jam it down your throat everyday?

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Supafreak Sunday, 23 Jan 2022 at 11:16am

The NSW boss hog leading by example, you can see it in the kids eyes , where’s ya mask dipshit ? Shaking hands ?0-BBAA7-D0-16-F1-45-FB-9-B2-E-D38-E66-FB22-FD
image upload

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Supafreak Sunday, 23 Jan 2022 at 11:21am

From reading comments on various social media sites , I’d say along with many nurses retiring early or leaving the sector for various reasons, many teachers are also taking this path, some simply taking a year off .

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Roadkill Sunday, 23 Jan 2022 at 11:22am
Supafreak wrote:

The NSW boss hog leading by example, you can see it in the kids eyes , where’s ya mask dipshit ? Shaking hands ?0-BBAA7-D0-16-F1-45-FB-9-B2-E-D38-E66-FB22-FD
image upload

Such a bad look, you would think these idiots would be a bit smarter.

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burleigh Sunday, 23 Jan 2022 at 11:31am

Victoria just mandated third dose for all teachers for a virus that is the equivalent of a 2 day cold.
Dictator dan is a fruitloop.

Say goodbye to more teachers you muppet.

Edit: also delivering children size surgical masks to every school and testing twice per week

Home schooling never looked so good.

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Vic Local Sunday, 23 Jan 2022 at 11:33am

"Being vaccinated clearly is very limited in protecting yourself if at all".
Whatever Burleigh, someone who got their degree in immunology from Youtube University.
So when millions of doctors and public health professionals around the world encourage vaccinations, they are clearly wrong and burleigh, the plucky little Queensland resurcher is correct.
Tell us Dr burleigh, what exactly is the point of the massive scheme to vaccinate everyone on the planet for? and why is there such overwhelming support from the medical profession for vaccinations. I'm due for a laugh.

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burleigh Sunday, 23 Jan 2022 at 11:38am
Vic Local wrote:

"Being vaccinated clearly is very limited in protecting yourself if at all".
Whatever Burleigh, someone who got their degree in immunology from Youtube University.
So when millions of doctors and public health professionals around the world encourage vaccinations, they are clearly wrong and burleigh, the plucky little Queensland resurcher is correct.
Tell us Dr burleigh, what exactly is the point of the massive scheme to vaccinate everyone on the planet for? and why is there such overwhelming support from the medical profession for vaccinations. I'm due for a laugh.

When the CEO of Pfizer publicly says that 2 jabs of his own vaccine does fuck all, you should probably listen to him.
But instead you listen to a power drunk premier that quotes the words “health advice” have you ever seen this “health advice”?

The data from Israel from the 4th dose should also be something you look at dopey.

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burleigh Sunday, 23 Jan 2022 at 11:46am

Imagine the propaganda to vaccinate kids spread throughout the school and being implemented into learning.

How long until pepper pig or bluey gets a vaccination?

Vic Local's picture
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Vic Local Sunday, 23 Jan 2022 at 11:47am
burleigh wrote:
Vic Local wrote:

"Being vaccinated clearly is very limited in protecting yourself if at all".
Whatever Burleigh, someone who got their degree in immunology from Youtube University.
So when millions of doctors and public health professionals around the world encourage vaccinations, they are clearly wrong and burleigh, the plucky little Queensland resurcher is correct.
Tell us Dr burleigh, what exactly is the point of the massive scheme to vaccinate everyone on the planet for? and why is there such overwhelming support from the medical profession for vaccinations. I'm due for a laugh.

When the CEO of Pfizer publicly says that 2 jabs of his own vaccine does fuck all, you should probably listen to him.
But instead you listen to a power drunk premier that quotes the words “health advice” have you ever seen this “health advice”?

The data from Israel from the 4th dose should also be something you look at dopey.

Just more "the vaccine isn't perfect so it's worthless" idiocy from you burleigh.
If you moronic anti-vaxxers had your way, nobody would be vaxxed and we all know how that would end up. Lots of overflowing cemeteries and tens of millions of excess deaths.
Give it a rest you idiot.

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Vic Local Sunday, 23 Jan 2022 at 11:50am
burleigh wrote:

Imagine the propaganda to vaccinate kids spread throughout the school and being implemented into learning.

How long until pepper pig or bluey gets a vaccination?

That's a great idea burleigh. I think I will share that with the producers of Bluey and PP. Imagine an episode where bluey, bingo and the extended family all get jabbed.

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overthefalls Sunday, 23 Jan 2022 at 11:55am

Burleigh, you arrogantly accuse pro-vaxxers of belonging to a cult. Yes, it’s a huge cult that consists of the majority of the Australian population who are just trying to do the right thing. You have created somewhat of cult following yourself; loads of crew around my neck of the woods are now reading this thread every day, eagerly awaiting their next instalment of your hilarious drivel, especially your gross misreadings of statistics. You and Robo make a great comedy duo!

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Stok Sunday, 23 Jan 2022 at 12:24pm
burleigh wrote:

Being vaccinated clearly is very limited in protecting yourself if at all (remember the CEO of Pfizer saying this) and it does NOT protect the people around you.
You lie, the misinformation you spread is dangerous

Not clear at all matey....well, maybe clear to someone without early highschool or above education?

Also, here's another classic example of anti vax parrots banging on using the same, misunderstood crap day in day out. All vaccines reduce your likihood of getting all symptoms - I.e. there's less chance of you being a sniffling, coughing, wheezing, sneezing mess. So, whilst the official advice is it doesn't entirely provide protection against transmission, a vaccinated person would be less likely to be highly symptomatic, than an anti vaxxer (read: idiot) who would be more likely coughing up a lung.

Guess what spreads high loads of airborne viruses - coughing and sneezing!

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Roadkill Sunday, 23 Jan 2022 at 12:33pm
burleigh wrote:
Vic Local wrote:

"Being vaccinated clearly is very limited in protecting yourself if at all".
Whatever Burleigh, someone who got their degree in immunology from Youtube University.
So when millions of doctors and public health professionals around the world encourage vaccinations, they are clearly wrong and burleigh, the plucky little Queensland resurcher is correct.
Tell us Dr burleigh, what exactly is the point of the massive scheme to vaccinate everyone on the planet for? and why is there such overwhelming support from the medical profession for vaccinations. I'm due for a laugh.

When the CEO of Pfizer publicly says that 2 jabs of his own vaccine does fuck all, you should probably listen to him.
But instead you listen to a power drunk premier that quotes the words “health advice” have you ever seen this “health advice”?

The data from Israel from the 4th dose should also be something you look at dopey.

So when the ceo of pfizer publicly says 2 jabs of his own vaccine with a booster does work (you should probably listen to him)…according to your posted rationale, you do listen too him? Finally, you are getting it.
Or, you are cherry picking to suit a bias. I’m guessing, cherry picking.

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Stok Sunday, 23 Jan 2022 at 12:45pm
Roadkill wrote:

Or, you are cherry picking to suit a bias. I’m guessing, cherry picking.

Anti vaxxers are naturally gifted cherry pickers. They can jumble together the most obscure list of facts, stories and imagination to suit their childish narratives.

It does take some creativity and blind commitment, got to hand them that.

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troppo dichotomy Sunday, 23 Jan 2022 at 1:04pm

What you criticize in others is often whats wrong with oneself .

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The real Donald... Sunday, 23 Jan 2022 at 1:07pm
burleigh wrote:

Imagine the propaganda to vaccinate kids spread throughout the school and being implemented into learning.

How long until pepper pig or bluey gets a vaccination?

sunday arvo clown world special just for you Burleigh...

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oceans11 Sunday, 23 Jan 2022 at 1:11pm

From a different angle , Why is China the only country in the world pressing for zero-covid while the rest of the world is opening up? What do they know that the world's scientist's can't figure out?

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The real Donald... Sunday, 23 Jan 2022 at 1:15pm

<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

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Stok Sunday, 23 Jan 2022 at 1:21pm
troppo dichotomy wrote:

What you criticize in others is often whats wrong with oneself .

Except for when criticising anti vaxxers, who consume the most deadshit, one sided, emotive and clearly manipulative media sources which do not consult or use qualified experts to back up their insanely wrong opinion pieces.

e.g. Burleigh who shares Reignite Democracy's instagram account. Instead of asking experts about what should be done differently to handle covid, they ask Pauline Hanson or Craig Kelly.

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I focus Sunday, 23 Jan 2022 at 1:23pm

As reported hospitalisation rate appears to have rolled over now to find out how fat the tail is.

covid-4
multi hosting

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Roadkill Sunday, 23 Jan 2022 at 1:23pm
oceans11 wrote:

From a different angle , Why is China the only country in the world pressing for zero-covid while the rest of the world is opening up? What do they know that the world's scientist's can't figure out?

NZ was doing covid free until a few weeks ago….with omicron they have given up as the reality is, no country can keep it out forever.

China can push for covid zero, with a gun that they will use.

What do you think China knows that the world’s scientists can’t figure out?