COVID-19 Health System Overload Forecaster

Craig's picture
Craig started the topic in Wednesday, 18 Mar 2020 at 7:44pm

I've created a spreadsheet forecast which I'll update as we go..

There's also a website with live running data.. https://sites.google.com/view/stayhomeaustralia

Blowin's picture
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Blowin Friday, 2 Apr 2021 at 11:39am

The world was shut, grandparents weren’t allowed to see their grandchildren, families told not to hug each other for a virus with a 99.97 percent survival rate.

It was an overreaction.

Obesity kills far more people than Covid was ever going to kill. Obesity has far more consistent and detrimental side effects than long Covid. Did the world get shut down over obesity? No. Did the WHO , National governments and global leaders issue strictly enforceable rules and laws to eliminate obesity? No.

But but.....obesity is a choice, catching Covid isn’t a choice! Yes, catching Covid is a choice. If you don’t want to catch Covid then isolate yourself. There is no reason anyone else should have to do the same.

It was illegal to leave your house due to Covid but it’s not illegal to feed your child chocolate and Coca Cola for every meal. Why the difference?

Overreaction https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/aug/28/unborn-twin-baby-...

Supafreak's picture
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Supafreak Friday, 2 Apr 2021 at 11:42am

What would you like to see happen blowin ?serious question, I would like to hear your thoughts on this , I have my own views on how the Australian government has handled this and what they have chosen to ignore .

JQ's picture
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JQ Friday, 2 Apr 2021 at 11:51am

Obesity isn't infectious though is it Blowin, and 'shutting down the world' would be a useless response to it. Obesity is (mostly) a choice, getting infected with a highly infectious deadly disease (mostly) isn't.

What's your source for your 99.97 figure?

The ABS does not agree, granted the figure they are quoting (Case fatality rate) is not quite the same as what you are saying.

https://www.abs.gov.au/articles/covid-19-mortality-0

AndyM's picture
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AndyM Friday, 2 Apr 2021 at 12:07pm

When you combine this -

"72.7% of people who died from COVID-19 had pre-existing chronic conditions certified on the death certificate."

with this


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https://www.health.gov.au/resources/covid-19-deaths-by-age-group-and-sex

then the claim that COVID is a "deadly" disease starts to look a bit like hyperbole.

I'm not saying let 'er rip, not at all, but it seem like the current blunt measures are an over-reaction.

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Island Bay Friday, 2 Apr 2021 at 12:17pm

What's that 'Group Sex' thing on the x-axis? And are the oldies really having that much of it? And how come men are having more?

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Supafreak Friday, 2 Apr 2021 at 12:40pm

I put this on a thread in January 2021 here’s the latest and it is active , sad thing is there’s not much of a reaction at all .

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Supafreak Friday, 2 Apr 2021 at 12:41pm

FE5-D1-A93-1766-49-B4-B681-4-B65060374-D9

Blowin's picture
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Blowin Friday, 2 Apr 2021 at 2:23pm

I reckon there should have been way more onus on self responsibility as there is with any other health situation. The blanket government intervention was extreme to the point of ridiculousness.

If you were vulnerable or felt at risk you should you should have taken protective measures for yourself alongside way more moderate governmental assistance. If you felt you weren’t vulnerable- as is really the case for the vast, vast majority of people, life should have been not far from normalcy.

More along the lines of the AIDS crisis. No one forced humans having to stop sex during the AIDS crises, it was more self preservation and education. Preventing the willing unification of relatives because of Covid was extreme . Curfews and lockdowns are outlandish.

Zero reasons a bunch of healthy young people can’t go about their lives.

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Supafreak Friday, 2 Apr 2021 at 1:42pm

I think initially the lockdowns were necessary as to avoid overwhelming our hospitals , more should have been done to protect the vulnerable as in aged care . Then ignoring Professor Borody was a mistake and going with the “only a vaccination can save us mentality “and not putting as much focus and money on treatments was a huge mistake. Today we see the blues festival canceled as a result of one person testing positive in Byron, businesses have just lost jobkeeper and to get kicked in the guts again with the losses they will receive as a result of cancellation is in my view a over reaction . No doubt lockdowns will continue this year and probably into next as the government drags the chain. Mistakes were made early and they continue to be made.

sypkan's picture
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sypkan Friday, 2 Apr 2021 at 2:52pm

soooo much in that meme above in current times supafreak, ...maybe you should offer guidance on hard hitting pertinent memes...

"I think initially the lockdowns were necessary as to avoid overwhelming our hospitals "

agree, with the initial goal, and that was the initial goal... fuck knows what there goal is now...

they were also neccesary to get an understanding of the virus. now we have a basic understanding... but not much is changing... seems some big interests are way too invested...

"...more should have been done to protect the vulnerable as in aged care ."

absolutely, but to be fair, many countries were having trouble just staffing vulnerable settings, ...with little warning, the characteristics of the virus, and the fear... oz not so much, it was a bloody disgrace

"...Then ignoring Professor Borody was a mistake and going with the “only a vaccination can save us mentality “and not putting as much focus and money on treatments was a huge mistake."

absolutely again, it seems once big money makes it's choices, there's no turning that tanker... it also seems there was/is also more than a bit of tds, as the whole media entertainment industrial complex continued their ridiculous plight to not accept anything trump says of having any value... triggggeerrred, ....many red faces, ...well there should be... but the hubris and righteousness runs thick...

"...Today we see the blues festival canceled as a result of one person testing positive in Byron,"

ya gotta wonder how long they can keep this shit up. you've also gotta wonder how long the public will accept the hypocrisy of sports events and associated international travel being all cool, with no shortage of quarratine places etc., all whilst travel for the little people being deemed unacceptable, still..., with oz people STILL stuck overseas. the whole shitshow defies belief and any semblance of logic

belief that crew are just 'sucking it up'

"...businesses have just lost jobkeeper and to get kicked in the guts again with the losses they will receive as a result of cancellation is in my view a over reaction ."

all with the big business little business inequity and rorting, another that defies belief and logic

"...No doubt lockdowns will continue this year and probably into next as the government drags the chain. Mistakes were made early and they continue to be made."

for how long? seriously?

the lockdowns, and mistakes...

sypkan's picture
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sypkan Friday, 2 Apr 2021 at 2:12pm

"I reckon there should have been way more onus on self responsibility as there is with any other health situation. The blanket government intervention was extreme to the point of ridiculousness."

absolutely, if not then... most certainly now...

indo-dreaming's picture
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indo-dreaming Friday, 2 Apr 2021 at 2:48pm

Problem is it all became political very quickly, and any government state or federal that now took a more relaxed approach and put an onus on self responsibility would be setting them self up for political suicide.

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sypkan Friday, 2 Apr 2021 at 3:11pm

but would they indod? aside from the ruby princess debacle at the beginning, from a management perspective, I know where I'd rather have been over the last 14 months re. syd versus mel

"Problem is it all became political very quickly,"

yes that is the problem...

the politicisation of a virus!! (...fuck knows how that even happens...) was off the charts, right from the begining, starting at the very top with the WHO and the US shitshow

I think it's no coincidence that developed countries that ignored our traditional leads, and largely got on with doing their own thing fared best

indo-dreaming's picture
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indo-dreaming Friday, 2 Apr 2021 at 3:45pm

I just think it is what it is now, it's not avoidable.

For example if one state leader said, enough is enough no more lock downs, people need to take responsibility, although a percentage of people would be happy many would not and the opposition would also use it against the party that made the call.

And if latter an outbreak did happen, then OMG the opposition in that state would just flog them over the head big time.

What sucks for us Victorians is other states can handle things in a bit more relaxed manner having quick lockdowns and moving on, but in Vic Dan has to take a much more cautious approach because of previous outbreaks, he cant afford to have another major outbreak.

Only lockdown i think we can complain about in Vic though is that last one, to lock the whole state in stage 4 restrictions was way over the top, it made no sense, i think it ends up being counter productive people just stop taking things seriously.

freeride76's picture
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freeride76 Friday, 2 Apr 2021 at 5:42pm

We’ve done better than just about any country.

So what we’ve done has largely worked , has largely been based on science and a strategy of suppression and now elimination.

I think it’s notable how we’ve largely escaped the politicisation and partisanship of other countries, eg USA.

indo-dreaming's picture
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indo-dreaming Friday, 2 Apr 2021 at 6:16pm

Yeah true, it hasn't been politicalised as much as the USA, i guess due to our success.

truebluebasher's picture
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truebluebasher Saturday, 17 Apr 2021 at 2:08am

Medical Bodies fear Worldwide Health Crisis suppressed by Covid.
TB : Treatment down 1.4m > Indo-42% / SA- 41% / Philippines-37% / India 25%

Australia -
Feb-March - Emergency Departments down 30%
April 2020 (Health Checks down 50%)
50% Cancer (Less Prostate / Cervical / Breast screens)
30% Heart / 40% Pathology ( 60,000 / day)
March - June (GPs - down 24%)
Pregnancy support down 4% /
April - Cervical Cancer checks down 67% / Surgery down 70%
May - Cancer Tests Down - Cervical 49% / Prostate 60% (Diabetes + Asthma down)
June - 145,000 fewer Mammograms / Surgeries down 10%
..................................................................................................................
7,000 Extra Oz Cancers will likely be diagnosed post covid
...................................................................................................................................................................

Note the 50% -100% drop in Oz Health then note 300% increase in MyHealth Data.

June (My Health > 22.78m) - 100% less Patients but [WR] Data breaches
All Health 90% + Data 2x (Here's what Robo is Selling off to Big Pharma!)
Pathology 4x > Drugz -3x > Jabs 3x > Xrays 3x > Organ Donors 1m to 1.5m
Hospitals - Viewed 271,000 Up (300%) > Uploads 300,000 Up (300%)
GPs - Viewed 416,000 ( 250%) > Uploads 187,000 Up ( 165% )

Explanation: [ TELEHEALTH ] is not Aussie & can breach Doctor Patient confidentiality.
Telehealth Medicare Codes invite TELEHEALTH o's Corps to access & raid MyHealth.
CEO's (30% Chinese) Own Phone Billing / Scripts / Bookings / Pathology / Sex -Tests
The info is sold on to Employers to out Gays & hold it over business rivals...etc
Councils / Unis / Insurance / Debt Collectors ( Millions of hacks we're talking about!)
Was Your Health, now accessed by Corps thru Telehealth / Vax / Passport Jab checks.

Aug - Cervical Cancer Screening down 38% > by Nov- down 60%.
March- Sept Mental Health & Support lines up 20%
Govt Future Fund has major Shares in Pfizer > Their new Drug Zolft blasts into Top 10.

Women's Study highlights Oz Disabled / Rural / LGBTIQ as lacking a further 10% care.
Dec - Oz Women 33.2% Anxious ( re: US women) / 28.7% Depression 18-24 yrs
25-44 y'o busier & struggling to cope! (All agree these next stats are alarmingly high...)
'Intimate' Partner Violence # 23.9% # / Emotional Abuse 19.5% / Controlling 11.1%
............Line is left free to think about that number........................................................................
Infertility 23.4% > (36.8%) > GP vs 21.7% Disadvantaged sought no help.
Maternal Health- 60-70% who suffered Miscarriage / Still birth got little support.
33.6% Women (25-44) say health was worse / 50%+ Pandemic cut off health care.
24.1 -32.7% Couldn't get appointment when needed most + 31.7% 24-44 No Time!
20- 39.1% can't afford Healthcare
18-24 y'o 27.6% didn't know where to access Health...13.3% no Health info?
Dr found this unusual, we thought we were giving good service ..My Gosh she said.
Pre 2000 as one! (www 100 sites = Psycho Maps / Phone/s / Address/s all wrong! )

Oz Women's Top 3 Anxiety / Weight / nutrition 30.9%
45-64 - Menopause 43.5%
65+ Bone Health / Osteoporosis
75+ Dementia / Incontinence -Bladder.
https://www1.racgp.org.au/newsgp/professional/national-women-s-health-su...
2021
April -Flu Jabs down 50% due to cross Vax rollout
...............................................................................................................................................................

US - March 2021- Cancer Screenings down 48% ( Breast -85% > Prostate 74% )
Cancer Predictions :
Next 5yrs - Lung Cancer extra 16.6% / Lung 4.8%
Next 10 yrs - Breast / Colon extra 10,000
April - Kidz Vax down 60% / Mammograms + Pap Smears 80% / Colons 90%
Nov-Dec - 3-10% Women missed the Pill.
(Skip Tests / health ) Unusually flips to more Women than *Men (race : AHWB)
Yrly - 46% AHWB v *26%
Referrals 23% vs *15%
Tests- treatment - 32% AHWB vs Insured 21%
Cut Meds -18% HBWA vs Insured 8%
Women Denied Health - 40% HBAW > vs Insured 29%
Women denied a Covid Test - Young Poor 11% AHBW 5% White Senior
Poor White women were most concerned with 'Major' Covid Mental Health.
Mental Health (order) > Anxiety / Mood Disorders / Drugz / Insomnia (34% ICU Covid)
Poor 27% worse health vs Ins 12% worse health
Tele Health - (March) -Youth 11% > (Uninsured 20%) > 44% wealthy seniors.(Dec)
Around 10% rate Telehealth Poor ( Standard ) tbb's health suffered with Telehealth.
Telehealth studies are half dead > No Wellbeing / Booking / Tests / Scripts / Mix ups.

Dec- Tests - Breast / Cervical down 94% / Colon 84%
40.9% Delayed Med Care / 31.5% avoided GPs / 12% avoided Emergency care.
46m couldn't afford care (18%) > (35%) Mid income skipped care > Rich (7%)
Note over half of US couldn't afford health care in 2020.
............................................................................................................................
UK - April -Cancer screens down 65.2 % +
Cancer deaths rose 4.8% lung > oesoph' > Breast > Colon 16.%
Jan - Sept - Heart appointments down 22% > (resulting in backup!)
March-June -Heart helpline ramped > 2019 -7,000 > 2020-17,500

Obviously there are Covid illness & increases in Dental & Eye issues with Masks...
Sorry the list was a bit scrappy - ABS cuts Health off Mid Year so tbb tried to wing it!

ABS can be forgiven as they finally released 2020 Covid year {RIP}
2020 - (ABS) 141,116 deaths or 28,185 less deaths than 2019...won't surprise crew!
Covid rewinds Oz death rate back 11 years to 2009 - 140,800 deaths
Oz figured on previous extra 11,000 deaths, so it's actually 40,000 lives to the good!
Who's gonna tell the World that Covid saved 40,000 Aussie lives in 2020...Shhh!

2020 States - Qld 1,180 less deaths / Vic 2,797 less deaths / NZ 1,647 less deaths
tbb nodded the big call, never doubted blowin & slowly unravelled his anomaly.
Well the day of reckoning is here!
tbb is still shocked how many less deaths there are...this is really good news isn't it?
(Class A misinformation) [Censored]...just how can our Govt & Oz Media spin this lot!

ABS have stretched base Line & Historic averages to talk it down...it's not working!
Cherry pick maximums x highest weeks from 5 years & 2020 Covid year aces it!
Was 2020 the best year ever & is Oz too embarrassed to spread Joy over the World!

Supafreak's picture
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Supafreak Saturday, 17 Apr 2021 at 6:42am

9-A49-BC03-023-D-47-CE-8-DA1-5-F3053-A651-DA

truebluebasher's picture
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truebluebasher Friday, 30 Apr 2021 at 2:46am

tbb went off grid spying on WIV Lab logo's [ MVCC ] ...[ google search led to this News Letter ]
Highly unlikely it's even related...but still mindlessly clicked as tbb was runnin' short of results...
Utica Phoenix...(a Publication for the Good)... An Independent News Magazine.
(Page 3) "Is Covid-19 an Offensive Biological Weapon?" (Warning! tbb unleashes an Evil Oz Link )

April 2020 Professor Francis Boyle (Oz link Sample only...for the crew!)
"....The Final Article Prof. Boyle cites is { Archives of Virology 2010, Volume 155 }...
This is research done with an Institute ("tbb: CSIRO?") in Australia working with Wuhan Scientists to DNA genetically engineer SARS and HIV to make a weapon. The Australian Institute was awarded a grant from China to do this work with their scientists. Here again, Boyle asserts, they bought the Technology, they didn't steal it.

Prof.Boyle's interpretation of these three articles is the Wuhan scientists took these viruses from North Carolina and Australia back to the BSL-4 in Wuhan and tried to genetically engineer it all together as potent Biological Warfare Weapon. This would be a combination of SARS which is already a weaponized corona virus add to that GOF properties and HIV."

Continues with India...but tbb adds both France & Israel also identify the HIV chemistry in Covid!
You won't get a better conspiracy paper on the net ...
Early call & buried in an independent low key news mag ....found by accident, only wins more cred.
Well written & not too sciency & straight to the point...presents as a revved up V8 research paper.

https://www.uticaphoenix.net/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/April_2020.pdf

Conspiracy Nutters have gotta get outta the way for this run at the Lab of Origin Series win.
Not even us Aussies are innocent...how bloody double dare they...Yep! WHO & Nazis get a good run.
Off the charts...yet you can't help but believe every emphatic word...tbb was & still is, blown away.
Note: tbb had earlier linked China / USA / OZ defence Viral project but not as up front as this.

Any doubters...might wanna bookend this one...
24th Feb 2018 : CSIRO plans US Military funded Genetic Extinction Experiments in WA.
Yep! That's us...unleashing more biological warfare with Covid's bigger brother.
http://emergingtech.foe.org.au/csiro-planning-us-military-funded-genetic...

Supafreak's picture
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Supafreak Friday, 30 Apr 2021 at 5:49pm

That last link was disturbing TBB , you gotta wonder wtf are they thinking