COVID-19 Health System Overload Forecaster

Craig's picture
Craig started the topic in Wednesday, 18 Mar 2020 at 7:44pm

I've created a spreadsheet forecast which I'll update as we go..

There's also a website with live running data.. https://sites.google.com/view/stayhomeaustralia

sypkan's picture
sypkan's picture
sypkan Thursday, 7 Jan 2021 at 9:07pm

oh that doctor borody!

Supafreak's picture
Supafreak's picture
Supafreak Thursday, 7 Jan 2021 at 9:06pm

Sypkan , I posted this interview awhile back it’s part 1 and 2 , he’s bit of a character. https://covexit.com/professor-thomas-borody-interview-part-1/

sypkan's picture
sypkan's picture
sypkan Thursday, 7 Jan 2021 at 9:21pm

"Surely this isn't real?"

you like a good google indod, look into dr. faucci and the highly mobile 'gain of function' research...

"Surely this isn't real?" ...couldn't possibly be more applicable...

I smell a rat, ...even if the virus didn't escape from a lab, ...all the highly limited (highly edited) acceptable narrative has been around how highly contagious and easily transmissable this virus is... it's sticky, ...surfaces, people... and now there's this new strain ravaging the uk and ireland, and it is even more so contagious and transmissable again... by a signigicant factor...

it don't add up

well ...actually... it does, and it all points one way...

adam12's picture
adam12's picture
adam12 Thursday, 7 Jan 2021 at 9:42pm

Supafreak, Craig Kelly was a pretty good full-back for Collingwood back in the day, and these days I think he is a player manager, but I don't think you should be going to his facebook page for answers to the pandemic. Try Eddie's.

Supafreak's picture
Supafreak's picture
Supafreak Thursday, 7 Jan 2021 at 9:55pm

Haha Adam 12 I’m not sure if you’re taking the piss or not lol Craig Kelly the politician

JQ's picture
JQ's picture
JQ Thursday, 7 Jan 2021 at 11:30pm

You're right sypkan 'it don't add up' why is the pandemic virus so infectious - it's certainly very odd indeed.

Westofthelake's picture
Westofthelake's picture
Westofthelake Friday, 8 Jan 2021 at 10:13am

3 day lock-down for Brissy after cleaner working at quarantine hotel unknowingly spends days in the community sharing the COVID love with the UK variant which is said to be 70% more contagious than other variants. 113 days without a case until now.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-01-08/coronavirus-queensland-uk-strain-...

Supafreak's picture
Supafreak's picture
Supafreak Friday, 8 Jan 2021 at 10:44am

Quick google search on what you suggested Sypkan. Wow what a can of worms .

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Friday, 8 Jan 2021 at 1:10pm

12 months ago to the day.

sypkan's picture
sypkan's picture
sypkan Friday, 8 Jan 2021 at 3:14pm

CNN, 12 months ago to the day...

"the wuhan pneumonia'

concerned about... "censorship"

the irony...

again...

sypkan's picture
sypkan's picture
sypkan Friday, 8 Jan 2021 at 3:11pm

...most interesting, it seems we're non the wiser (in terms of acceptable narrative) one year on than we were back then...

the censorship and control of narrative has been astounding to say the least

batfink's picture
batfink's picture
batfink Friday, 8 Jan 2021 at 3:23pm

Great post re Bali, Sypkan (previous page).

I’ll also second the nomination to watch Netflix “Death to 2020”. It’s very good, took me a little way in before I realised it was a piss take, a very good one at that. Karen’s from UK and US also hilarious.

Supafreak's picture
Supafreak's picture
Supafreak Friday, 8 Jan 2021 at 3:26pm
batfink's picture
batfink's picture
batfink Friday, 8 Jan 2021 at 3:51pm

Interesting reading back. Blowin’s about face from earlier in the year quite impressive. Around April, during lockdown of eastern suburbs beaches, I asked crew what they thought about me going to holiday house in an equally infected area to where I was living (actually higher at holiday house, marginally). Blowin comes in straight away saying “you know what to do” implying stay at home. Largely was interested in folks opinions, genuinely, and their capacity to take in facts and use logic to arrive at an outcome. Clearly, going from one slightly infected area to another nearby should have met with no concerns or demurs.

I didn’t go to the holiday house, stayed home and out of the water for 3 months, through effing autumn of all times.

Now Blowin advocating for no lockdowns, calls people as being scaredy-cats. Strange turn around, made stranger by my impression or recollection that he lives on the mid north coast of NSW (may be wrong there, apologies if so).

To date, mid north coast NSW has experienced zero days of lockdown to my knowledge, unless we are using the word lockdown to describe different things. How many days were you stopped from entering the ocean Blowin?

Can’t quite fathom it, interested in his take on it.

Personally, I find the “you’re just scared of dying” ambit attack both ruthless and underhanded. Anyone with a capacity for projecting where this all goes without lockdown doesn’t fully grasp how the health system works, how we are sending doctors, nurses, orderlies, cleaners on to the front lines and disinterested in actually doing anything to help them (shades of the Generals sending in the infantry and the cavalry into the German tanks).

A functional health system protects everyone. A broken health system stuffs everyone. Do you not know anyone who is sick with cancer, diabetes, heart condition, COPD? What a privileged life to lead.

batfink's picture
batfink's picture
batfink Friday, 8 Jan 2021 at 4:00pm

And bloody hell, Vic Local’s gone, god bless him. It’s for the best VL, if you’re still popping by. My job changed too about 3 years ago, from doing one and a half people’s work to about two and a half, so time on the boards was time I didn’t have except for odd occasions. Now sort of retired, I do love the forums but will consider my life wasted if I spend too much time here, so have to limit the visits.

On a further note, Supafreak referred to various ways to improve your immune system, noting vitamin C (limited benefit and only if you aren’t getting from your diet, which you probably are) zinc - definitely good as you might not be getting enough, should have included magnesium as well, but neither zinc or magnesium require daily pills, one a week or more would cover just about everyone. Ivermectin - not going to go over that broken record again.

BEST thing you can do for your immune system by far, by far, by far - get 8 hours of good sleep a night. Absolutely gold standard science behind this, nothing works better and all other measures are compromised if you aren’t getting enough sleep, and that is more than 7 and preferably 8, and not alcohol compromised. Just finished a great book titled “Why We Sleep”.

Worth checking out.

Supafreak's picture
Supafreak's picture
Supafreak Friday, 8 Jan 2021 at 4:13pm
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno Friday, 8 Jan 2021 at 4:36pm

Batfink thank you, great posts.

The Ms just advised me of mass traffic leaving Brisbane, journey north taking 2-3hrs instead of 1. More on the news, coming at 5! Bonus if you can spot Snake Plissken from the helicopter panning shot.

Supafreak's picture
Supafreak's picture
Supafreak Friday, 8 Jan 2021 at 5:14pm

Hi batfink , can you please show where I was mentioning vitamin c to improve immune system ? I can’t find it . Thanks totally agree with getting 8 hours sleep and fasting also has great benefits such as autophagy

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno Friday, 8 Jan 2021 at 5:27pm

"Traffic chaos in Brisbane as motorists rush from looming city lockdown
By Matt Dennien
A major highway out of Brisbane has been turned into a parking lot in the wake of the lockdown announcement on Friday morning, with delays stretching for kilometres out of the city.

Traffic cameras have captured the gridlock northbound on the Gateway Motorway and Bruce Highway toward the Sunshine Coast, with authorities urging motorists to take care.

Google Maps data showed delays stretching from the northern suburbs to the Glass House Mountains about 50 kilometres north. Southbound delays were also being experienced on the northern Gold Coast and around the NSW border.

The RACQ said it had received reports of speeds dropping to 40 km/h at some points northbound to the Sunshine Coast. The Transport and Main Roads Department advised roads around the Brisbane metropolitan area were also abnormally busy.

While the Sunshine Coast and Gold Coast remain outside the five greater Brisbane council areas making up the declared hotspot to be locked down from 6pm, anyone who has been within it since January 2 will also need to isolate themselves for three days."

https://www.theage.com.au/national/coronavirus-updates-live-nation-s-cov...

Supafreak's picture
Supafreak's picture
Supafreak Friday, 8 Jan 2021 at 5:27pm

Possibly batfink you got vitamin C mixed up with vitamin D ? https://www.healthline.com/health/food-nutrition/benefits-vitamin-d

GuySmiley's picture
GuySmiley's picture
GuySmiley Friday, 8 Jan 2021 at 6:15pm

Morrison reacting to problems yet again, never proactive always reactive.

The one and only difference between AU and the US or UK is the hard and tireless work of all state premiers/governments.

No more pathetic umbilical has ever been PM.

truebluebasher's picture
truebluebasher's picture
truebluebasher Friday, 8 Jan 2021 at 11:09pm

Laugh out loud with Velocityjohnno about mad dash to Gold Coast freedom?
(Test:) Greater Bne Lockdown (vs) Gold Coast freedom.

Q: Can you drive freely amongst all 5 Greater Bne Cities (Yes)
Q: Can you leave any Gold Coast Boundary at all. (Nope)

Q: Can you travel very far in Greater Bne Lockdown (Yes) 130km x 120km
Q: How far does Gold Coast freedom extend 60km x 30km...D'oh!

Q: Are the Covid Testing Queues longer on the Gold Coast (Both about 4-6hrs)
Q: Greater Bne Toilet Paper (None) (vs) Gold Coast (Still a few rolls...hiding about)

"You see Luv... I Knew we made the right choice!"
Welcome to Paradise Rest Rooms + Half a slightly soiled Bog Roll - $3,000 w/e

As half of Bne is already on the Goldie just extend the Testing to the Border!
Pretty sure that the Goldie iso bubble is more restrictive than the Hottest Spots?
The fake iso' is Govt's Golden chance to test everyone on the Goldie...just do it.
Then we can all be free & sane under lockdown with way less Police resource.
Just bill the Viccos for another 3 days suffocation in their Hot Hotel crawl space.

*Pen & Paper proves mightier than the Lib's latest app crash #429,867
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/mandatory-service-nsw-check-in-app-s...

NSW Mandatory app (Check in 2hr crash) timed with Day 1 of Sydney Test (Oops!)
No one has a clue who wore the bucket hat. (Gladys : 'Will it delay the Fire Works?')
(It's just not Cricket without the check in app fail)

NSW were driving without licences for 2 hours before they pulled over!
They all failed to show police their Driver's Licence...'Sure Mate!'
Cop: "I'm gonna write you a ticket! "
(Tear it up & ask for an E Ticket!) It's the Law!
Bad luck Cop...the app is down...Zoom Zoom ( Law says! You can't stop me! )

In future Outage?
New Rule : We're gonna scrap that silly Death Penalty for using Pen & Paper...
Each app crash marks off each sign-in fine > every 10th app crash wins a free fine.
You can draw a picture of yourself & spit on it for bioscan I.D....(Think that's right?)

Supafreak's picture
Supafreak's picture
Supafreak Saturday, 9 Jan 2021 at 3:45am

I can understand people being a bit over my posts as they have been mainly about ivermectin, it’s something I have found incredibly interesting and the current minimal reporting from msm in Australia while the rest of the world is debating it astounds me. The doctors involved aren’t antivax , some have recently had their vaccination in the US , they see this as a bridge while waiting for the roll out of the vaccination. Also not everyone can get vaccinated for various reasons. This next post is copied from Craig Kelly ( MP ) Facebook page. If you’re sick of hearing about it please keep scrolling. AND SOME POLITICIANS STILL THINK IVERMECTIN IS ALL SOME CONSPIRACY THEORY

The science is settled. The time for debate is over.

Any lazy politician that has failed to do their homework, and continues to mock Ivermectin and engage in childish name calling, labelling those posting the evidence and the peer-reviewed science on Ivermectin as ‘’conspiracy theorists’’ and ‘’anti-vaxxers” - now has blood on their hands.

For their ignorance, groupthink and petty political point scoring has already cost lives and sent many small businesses to ruin. There is no longer any excuse.

Anyone that continues with the war against Ivermectin, should be prepared to face criminal charges in the future for negligent manslaughter.

Here’s the Press Release from the Evidenced Based Medical Consultancy.

https://www.e-bmc.co.uk

https://b3d2650e-e929-4448-a527-4eeb59304c7f.filesusr.com/ugd/593c4f_1b1...

Press Release
6 January 2021

Good news on Ivermectin for treatment of Covid-19

New British research has examined and pooled data from a wide range of international studies – including Argentina, Bangladesh, Iran, Pakistan, Spain, Egypt, India and the US – and found that the anti-parasitic medicine Ivermectin not only reduces deaths from Covid-19, but can be used to protect doctors and nurses – as well as others who have had „contacts‟ with ill people – from getting the infection.

The report was published last week by an independent UK-based medical research company, the Evidence-Based Medicine Consultancy Ltd (E-BMC).

The research was conducted to support the recent findings of Dr Pierre Kory and clinical experts of the Front Line Covid-19 Critical Care Alliance (FLCCC) in the US.

Doctors around the world are now working together to raise awareness of this life-saving medicine which probably reduces the risk of a person dying from Covid-19 by between 65% and 95%.

In addition, the researchers believe that ivermectin should be offered as a prophylactic measure to health care workers as soon as possible because the analysis shows that ivermectin substantially reduces Covid-19 infections in these at risk groups.

The conclusions of the new global research are so clear that it is believed Ivermectin should be viewed as an essential drug to reduce the severity of illness and fatalities caused by the Covid-19 virus.

In most studies included in the review, the doses of Ivermectin given were similar to those given for common parasitic infections in humans (e.g. 0.2mg/kg orally, equivalent to a 12mg tablet for a 60 kg adult).
Commenting on the research, Dr Tess Lawrie of the E-BMC, said, “This is really good news. Ivermectin will have a significant impact on the battle against COVID-19.

“It also offers great hope for the better protection of our doctors and nurses who are on the front lines of this terrible crisis, as well as the protection of those who have had „contacts‟ with sick people.

“Ivermectin is a well-known, safe and inexpensive medicine that is currently unlicensed in the UK for human use.

“This research is the integration of global efforts by clinicians, researchers, and study participants to make a difference in the fight against Covid-19. We owe a debt of thanks to them all.

“I hope that policymakers now respond to this information with the required urgency to save lives and protect our health care workers.”

NOTES TO EDITORS
1. Dr Lawrie has written to Mr Hancock and Mr Ashworth but has not yet had a reply. Today she recorded a video letter in an urgent attempt to reach the Prime minister. This letter has been posted on www.e-bmc.co.uk.
2. The report can also be found on www.e-bmc.co.uk
3. Health care professionals may wish to refer to the clinical guidance on Ivermectin use at the
Front Line COVID-19 Critical Care Alliance (https://covid19criticalcare.com/).
4. Ivermectin is used in the treatment of various parasitic diseases such as river blindness,
round worm, lice and scabies. This safe and inexpensive drug is on the Essential Medicines list of the World Health Organization (WHO) and is also used by vetenarians to treat parasitic infections in animals.
5. Ivermectin was originally derived from soil bacteria in Japan by Dr Satoshi Omura (Japan) and Dr William Campbell (USA) who were awarded a Nobel prize for its discovery in 2015.
6. The FLCCC review on which the EBMC rapid review is based can be found at
https://covid19criticalcare.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/FLCCC-Ivermec...
prophylaxis-and-treatment-of-COVID-19.pdf
7. The scientist in charge of the meta-analysis, Dr Tess Lawrie has no commercial interests in the drug Ivermectin and nor does E-BMC Ltd.
8. Dr Tess Lawrie has no connection to the FLCCC expert group at
https://covid19criticalcare.com/
9. Tess Lawrie has shared the data files used in the E-BMC report with Dr Andrew Hill of Liverpool University.

truebluebasher's picture
truebluebasher's picture
truebluebasher Saturday, 9 Jan 2021 at 4:34pm

Mutant Test Alert > Jetstar JQ570 Mbne > Bne (11pm) 5th Jan > Maleny Qld.

Supafreak's picture
Supafreak's picture
Supafreak Sunday, 10 Jan 2021 at 6:22pm

This lady is making the decisions on our health

Supafreak's picture
Supafreak's picture
Supafreak Sunday, 10 Jan 2021 at 6:40pm
san Guine's picture
san Guine's picture
san Guine Sunday, 10 Jan 2021 at 7:09pm

A reminder of where we've been and what we're up against. Hey Scomo, do you want to poke the tiger again?
https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20210110-a-year-after-first-death-...

Supafreak's picture
Supafreak's picture
Supafreak Sunday, 10 Jan 2021 at 7:37pm

Good read san , when the article talks about the timeframe of when the virus may have occurred it jolted a memory of a discussion I had with a mate who is a merchant seaman. He swears he had the symptoms of covid especially the razor blade sore throat back in October November 2019 , he was taking a vessel from Perth to Malaysia with a mixed international crew . He’s convinced the virus has been around longer than December. He was sick for 3 weeks and never went to hospital or saw a doctor. It was late February before he returned to Australia. I’m not saying he had covid but after reading that article maybe he did.

AndyM's picture
AndyM's picture
AndyM Sunday, 10 Jan 2021 at 7:58pm

From Pete Evans' Insta Supafreak??

Supafreak's picture
Supafreak's picture
Supafreak Sunday, 10 Jan 2021 at 8:18pm

Sorry Andy M I’m not following what your trying to say

AndyM's picture
AndyM's picture
AndyM Sunday, 10 Jan 2021 at 8:54pm

I'm just tickled that the link to "the lady making the decisions on out health" originally came from our mate Pete Evans.

seaslug's picture
seaslug's picture
seaslug Sunday, 10 Jan 2021 at 9:13pm

smirking wanker Pete Evans, can't stand the cuuuuuuuuuunt

Supafreak's picture
Supafreak's picture
Supafreak Sunday, 10 Jan 2021 at 9:24pm

Oh ok Andy M , I didn’t even see that , a mate sent it to me on messenger, I should look more closely next time , I was busy looking at what she was doing. I’m a bit pissed at some of the medical experts and there rules . For example the $200 fine for not wearing a mask that isn’t really going to stop you from getting covid. If you look at the link I posted following the previous it gives a explanation on masks pretty clearly. I understand they are trying to minimise the spread but how about some full explanation like the FLCCC have given. Plus our expert medical advice is to get tested and isolate if you have symptoms and seek medical help if it gets bad where as leading doctors say early treatment is critical. Just a bit annoyed Andy sorry for the Pete Evans post again I didn’t realise it came from him

Supafreak's picture
Supafreak's picture
Supafreak Sunday, 10 Jan 2021 at 9:24pm

Oh ok Andy M , I didn’t even see that , a mate sent it to me on messenger, I should look more closely next time , I was busy looking at what she was doing. I’m a bit pissed at some of the medical experts and there rules . For example the $200 fine for not wearing a mask that isn’t really going to stop you from getting covid. If you look at the link I posted following the previous it gives a explanation on masks pretty clearly. I understand they are trying to minimise the spread but how about some full explanation like the FLCCC have given. Plus our expert medical advice is to get tested and isolate if you have symptoms and seek medical help if it gets bad where as leading doctors say early treatment is critical. Just a bit annoyed Andy sorry for the Pete Evans post again I didn’t realise it came from him

Supafreak's picture
Supafreak's picture
Supafreak Sunday, 10 Jan 2021 at 9:24pm

Oh ok Andy M , I didn’t even see that , a mate sent it to me on messenger, I should look more closely next time , I was busy looking at what she was doing. I’m a bit pissed at some of the medical experts and there rules . For example the $200 fine for not wearing a mask that isn’t really going to stop you from getting covid. If you look at the link I posted following the previous it gives a explanation on masks pretty clearly. I understand they are trying to minimise the spread but how about some full explanation like the FLCCC have given. Plus our expert medical advice is to get tested and isolate if you have symptoms and seek medical help if it gets bad where as leading doctors say early treatment is critical. Just a bit annoyed Andy sorry for the Pete Evans post again I didn’t realise it came from him

Supafreak's picture
Supafreak's picture
Supafreak Sunday, 10 Jan 2021 at 9:25pm

Fuck this phone and triple posting

etarip's picture
etarip's picture
etarip Sunday, 10 Jan 2021 at 9:35pm

Pete Evans IS a cunt! Divergent views on swellnet unite around a common theme!

etarip's picture
etarip's picture
etarip Sunday, 10 Jan 2021 at 9:36pm

Sorry Stu / Ben. Left the c-Bomb on your front page for a minute.

truebluebasher's picture
truebluebasher's picture
truebluebasher Sunday, 10 Jan 2021 at 9:59pm

Superfreak just pulled off the NSW tri-fecta.

(1) NSW Premier - Gold Standard
https://www.facebook.com/7NEWSsydney/videos/nsw-premier-didnt-self-isola...
https://www.facebook.com/7NEWSsydney/videos/nsw-premier-apologises-for-b...

(2) NSW Health Minister -Platinum Standard (His own upgrade)
Night 17th Dec- Hazzard takes a Covid Test. (NSW results min 1 full day -3days )
Midday 18th Hazzard gives a Major press conference (No Isolation?) Oopsie!
https://www.facebook.com/abcinsydney/videos/live-nsw-health-covid-19-ann...
Jokes he never jumped queue or got privilege + Oh!! My Test came back negative!!
Choose (a) WR test time (b) WR Privilege (c) He lied twice (d) He got busted!
(Wildcard bet) Most likely all 4 - ** Platinum Winner* * (Congratulations).

(3) NSW Health Officer - Back to No Standards (Bugger!)

HatTrick to Superfreak try for a Maiden Over....

Just not Cricket Covid Test Day 1 Contact Crash app ....Who's got the Bucket Hat?
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/mandatory-service-nsw-check-in-app-s...

All of NSW driving unlicenced for 2 hrs, everybody clear the cars off the streets!
Cop : 'Gonna have to write NSW a ticket...D'oh!...I mean an app! D'oh! > (Warning?)

(Pollies ~1 Rule Only ): "Just do all the shit that we couldn't be bothered doing!"
Aussies : "Piece of piss, why the fuck didn't ya just say that from the beginning."

Supafreak's picture
Supafreak's picture
Supafreak Monday, 11 Jan 2021 at 4:13am

TBB your a funny bugger , maybe you could start another thread “ laughter is the best medicine “ we all need a good laugh . As I wasn’t that good a bowler ( always got belted ) I will pass on the maiden but I don’t mind a punt so I would like to do a All Up bet . First leg is UK to adopt math + and I MASK protocol due to emergency situation, 2nd leg USA NIH to do same in February , 3rd leg scumo to throw several medical experts under the bus for not taking Professor Borody seriously and 4th leg Trump to become media giant in the US and give the Democrats a nightmare. Might be long shots here but who knows what will happen in the new normal. Off to work soon and hopefully a wave after lunch.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Monday, 11 Jan 2021 at 12:19pm

Haha.

Supafreak's picture
Supafreak's picture
Supafreak Monday, 11 Jan 2021 at 5:11pm

Hahaha classic ending

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin Monday, 11 Jan 2021 at 5:23pm

Classic

AndyM's picture
AndyM's picture
AndyM Tuesday, 12 Jan 2021 at 12:22am

Fuggin bewdy

udo's picture
udo's picture
udo Tuesday, 12 Jan 2021 at 8:01am
stunet's picture
stunet's picture
stunet Tuesday, 12 Jan 2021 at 8:59am

Oh, this could be awkward.

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin Tuesday, 12 Jan 2021 at 1:50pm

Vaccination will be required everywhere and anywhere. No massive surprise there. Proof of vaccination is nothing new for travellers .