COVID-19 Health System Overload Forecaster

Craig's picture
Craig started the topic in Wednesday, 18 Mar 2020 at 7:44pm

I've created a spreadsheet forecast which I'll update as we go..

There's also a website with live running data..

sypkan's picture
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sypkan Thursday, 31 Dec 2020 at 5:24pm

are surfers cool?

I remember, ...not that long ago... many surfers and travellers were kinda cool and respectful on their travels throughout indonesia, yes ozzies were loose in bali, and the biggest bogans quite often disrespectful everywhere, getting around half naked, with bintang in hand etc., but even these bintang bogans were reasonably respectful of local laws and customs, and quite often mixed in surprisingly well...

now, ...well actually, even well well before corona, it seems bali has attracted a new kind of traveller. the self entitled, make your own rules, I'll do what I want traveller... capitalising, and down right exploiting the looseness of bali and the country generally, buying their own little utopia everywhere they go...

I hate to be 'racist' but this new cohort largely seem to be from a different bogan filled continent to bali's former bogan plague, and show way less respect than even some of the bogan-est of the ozzie bogans!

I say this because I'm reading the most embarrassing and worrying posts (from a bule perspective...) on fb - yes, facebook, sorry..., but these are reasonably legit. law and health fb sites dedicated to bali and corona, and they do tend to keep the discussion quite credible in nature

the stories of entitlement and arrogance are so fucking embarrassing for me, as I'm very aware how arrogant indo's already believe all bule to be (we are, ...terribly arrogant - but there's levels...) ...these people, ...these 'travellers', are losing their shit because they've paid for a 'business visa' to party in bali for new years eve, and are now getting caught up in a jakarta quarrantine system, as indo has now introduced 5 day hotel quarrantine rule

now fair enough, be a bit pissed that your travel plans have been disrupted, but seriously... you have scammed a loophole in the visa system - with your big bucks and arrogance - you've scammed the 'corruption' you now rail against, to get yourself a nice tropical holiday, in a poor country struggling with corona, far far from your cold corona plagued shithole hotspot... seriously, the arrogance!

and then there's the canggu set... canggu, the helmet-less sufer hipster hotspot (...hellhole from my perspective...) absolutely chock full of crew too cool for school... new age anti vaxxer yoga mum surfing hipster types... who seem to feel the need to show no repect for their most accomodating of accomodating host countries at all, as they proudly display their anti mask politcal conscientious objections...

now sure,'re reasonably young and fit, and have your vegan / prescatarian / caveman diet / superfoods / general healthy living, superman shield super diet, or whatever... but what happened to being 'cool' and 'respecting the locals', ....those less fortunate than you? ...those who are struggling to eat 3 basic good meals a day... never mind your super diet yuppy cafe lifestyle extravagance...

now I'm no mask nazi, ...and I'm no indo culture fetishising wannabe specialist, who constantly nitpicks the arrogance, weird ways and extravagances of the western tourists, as I partake in the decadence myself from time to time, ...but I've gotta say, in the last ten years or so, this shit has just gotten real weird in bali, as instagrammers, 'digital nomads', wealthy poor euro trash, and yuppies of various nationalities have basically overtaken the island in terms of influence, and I don't like what I see...

maybe my time has passed, ...maybe I need a new plastic paradise to haunt... maybe it's just corona craziness that has exacerbated and super stark-ised everything... whatever it is, my message is to the bali people...

stop being so bloody polite!

piss off the paling sombong!

deport the disrespectful, the scammers, and the corrupt, and look after your paradise, it's not your job to accomodate and launder the filth from the rest of the world tempting as it may be...

the dollars part that is...

Blowin's picture
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Blowin Thursday, 31 Dec 2020 at 5:24pm

Good post Sypkan.

VJ....,You’re a good person. You don’t need advice beyond making sure to schedule time for yourself. If you fall apart everything falls apart.

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Supafreak Thursday, 31 Dec 2020 at 5:38pm

Enjoyed reading Sypkan , on many occasions I have felt embarrassed to be Australian when I was living in Bali. The main message since covid that I’ve been sending my balinese friends through social media is , even though you have lost your jobs and income this is a opportunity to spend more time with your children and family and friends. The time will come again when you will be to busy for such things. I have offered financial assistance to many friends and not one has taken up my offer . They have found new ways of making money and their resilience is amazing. My wife and I send money to her family and that supports a large community in north east Bali. It’s not much for me but greatly appreciated by them . Hopefully we get there in 2021 but I’m doubtful.

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Westofthelake Thursday, 31 Dec 2020 at 5:43pm

nice work syppo. It'd be great if someone in Bali gets to read it...

Just got to watch a new Netflix Doco called 'Death to 2020'. Well worth it. When I heard this actor talking it reminded me of you sypkan. I'll reckon you'll laugh.

"Look, things wasn't always this way.
I've studied human behaviour long enough to get sick of it.
You gotta remember most folks are still neighbourly
Ned Flanders, unfuckably nice.

But right now the edges are rougher than ever.

On the right you've got shit nosed extremists wondering aloud if Hitler was all bad inventing their own clown house reality,
and on the left you got farkin' whiny woke lords canceling the shit out of anyone who dares to take a dump at the wrong time of the day."

Anyhoo, it's still ok for the masses to go to the cricket apparently...meanwhile, please avoid super-spreader events.

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velocityjohnno Thursday, 31 Dec 2020 at 6:31pm

That was a good post Sypkan. It had a bit of the old Tracks descriptions of the place in the 1980s mags. Maybe it shows as a warning for what happens 50 years after surf paradise is found?

Supa good message. I think I enjoyed the quiet of the lockdowns, the walks & dunes & wind & beaches. One hardly known, unlikely spot in particular just threw up so many waves for my son and I - imagine a personal, head-high skate bowl. A secret happy place to get away to whether onshore or offshore. The idea of isolation for me is not so much hiding under a bed, but being out there in places where people don't really bother to go - within the rules and not burning others to access it myself. Just listen to the wind. There are some absolutely top notch places I found in my working life traveling all over Oz, off the beaten path, no one around. Isolation. So that could be 2021 as well.

Finally got around to watching Breath the other night. I know those places, and most of those waves. A part of my grommethood too (the waves, anyway). I kept stopping the film as I was so amped at the surf footage, and ran around the house.

The earth exhales.

Thanks for the tip Blowin, we will see how 2021 goes. Situations keep changing (WA just shut border to Vic again...) and we'll see how it lands. You have a pretty special part of the coast to be part of, and there's lots of beauty to get into there if going further is stopped for a while.

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velocityjohnno Thursday, 31 Dec 2020 at 6:57pm

A very determined run, stopped 5 yards short of the try line by some quick thinking defence.

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GuySmiley Thursday, 31 Dec 2020 at 10:52pm

See ya Vicco all the best

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truebluebasher Friday, 1 Jan 2021 at 1:15am

Yeah that sounds like the real deal & Vic Local is all that & more!
This whole grand exit...end of the year thing is pretty out there!
Are we doing a medal ceremony or something...Awards Night?

tbb equally salutes Vic Local for keeping us honest & on our toes.
Be an honour to mind your spot Sir & promise to call out BS & racists.
Maybe just the small pesky racists for starters then...then Wot tbb?

Well it's Midnite here so Qldurrz blow Vic Local a Kiss...Happy New Year.
Best wishes in return...

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velocityjohnno Saturday, 2 Jan 2021 at 3:49pm

The 'born allowed'

Brilliant and devastating writing from SMH columnist: he puts into words what has been a feeling for a long time:

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AndyM Monday, 4 Jan 2021 at 9:10am

Worthy article from Guy Rundle.

In essence, he points out that SARS-COVID-19 is nothing special or new, just another in a line of flu, ebola and coronavirus outbreaks in the past 20 years.

However this is where it gets a bit more interesting.

He posits that the circulation of coronavirus roughly coincides with globalisation going to a new level in 2001, when China joined the WTO, and India abandoned the last vestiges of nationalist economic and social policy, and went for full neoliberalisation.

Rundle says "[a]s a society we need to ... regard SARS-COVID-19 as a prelude and rehearsal to a viral event that would mark a categorical historical change in human life.
Should the state be unwilling to do this, out of the deep denial that still permeates a state devoted to the preservation of capitalism at all costs, then a coalition of public epidemiologists, economists, political scientists and disaster experts should form, create such a plan and make it public.
The only responsible act, for those who believe that the “human project” is worth continuing, is to make such a plan, with a clear-eyed view of nature’s indifference to our desires."

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freeride76 Monday, 4 Jan 2021 at 10:43am

He might be right, or he might be spectacularly, dead wrong.
In the sense that in the medium, or even short run, it may turn out to be barely a blip in the human domination of the planet and the rise and rise of neoliberalism.

Recent data suggests, very much the latter conclusion, than the former.

Australia’s housing market grew in 2020, despite the first recession in 30 years.

From AAP:

Australia’s housing market increased in value in 2020, despite the drag on activity caused by the outbreak of coronavirus.

The national home value index rose three per cent over the year to a median price of $574,872, according to CoreLogic.

Values in regional areas led the way with a 6.9 per cent increase for a combined median of $420,502, compared to two per cent for major capital cities with a combined median of $651,983.

Melbourne was the only capital city to finish the year underwater — albeit on a relatively healthy median price of $682,197 — after battling two waves of outbreaks of COVID-19.

The most expensive city was Sydney, with a median value of $871,749, and the cheapest was Darwin on $416,183.

CoreLogic research director Tim Lawless said record low borrowing rates supported the market in 2020, along with a “spectacular” rise in consumer confidence.

Confidence was buoyed in the latter months of the year as COVID-related restrictions and border constraints began to be lifted.

“Containing the spread of the virus has been critical to Australia’s economic and housing market resilience,” Lawless said on Monday.

Changes to home values in capital cities in 2020:

Sydney: up 2.7%
Melbourne: down 1.3%
Brisbane: up 3.6%
Adelaide: up 5.9%
Perth: up 1.9%
Hobart: up 6.1%
Darwin: up 9%
Canberra: up 7.5%

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Supafreak Monday, 4 Jan 2021 at 10:56am


5 months ago, Australia’s Professor Tom Borody stated;

‘’We have a therapy that can fight COVID-19. The medications have been around for 50 years, they are cheap, FDA and TGA approved, and have an outstanding safety profile. To save lives we should be using whatever is safe and available right now. We could lead the world in this fight.’’

Professor Borody further said;

“No trial has shown Ivermectin-based therapy to be ineffective. In fact, international data reports an almost 100% cure rate and a symptom improvement within 4-6 days. We should share Australian findings from this triple therapy with the world.’

"An Ivermectin tablet can cost as little as $2 - which could make it by far the cheapest, safest, and fastest cure for Australians and the Australian economy. This needs to be available for aged care facilities and frontline health workers today.

‘’This could be the fastest and safest way to end the pandemic in Australia within 6-8 weeks ...... Why are we just waiting around for a vaccine?’’

But Professor Borody was threatened into silence by our Health Bureaucrats.

To date, 5 months after Professor Borody’s statement, there are now 28 Ivermectin/Covid controlled published studies, including 10 Randomised Control Trials.

All of them have found Ivermectin effective against Covid, and support Professor Borody’s recommendations.

But amazingly, in continuing to recommendation AGAINST Ivermectin, our Health Bureaucrats at the National Covid-19 Evidence Taskforce admit they have ONLY looked at 3 of these studies.

Are they just incompetent, or are they purposely holding back the inevitable (that Ivermectin will be widely acknowledged as an effective prophylaxis and early treatment for Covid) so that the vaccine gets widely used ?

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AndyM Monday, 4 Jan 2021 at 1:24pm

Dunno FR, it's fascinating though.

I tend to agree, there seems to be no turning back for neoliberalism though at the same time "there is widespread agreement among economists that it will have severe negative impacts on the global economy.
Early estimates predicated that, should the virus become a global pandemic, most major economies will lose at least 2.4 percent of the value their gross domestic product (GDP) over 2020, leading economists to already reduce their 2020 forecasts of global economic growth down from around 3.0 percent to 2.4 percent.
To put this number in perspective, global GDP was estimated at around 86.6 trillion U.S. dollars in 2019 – meaning that just a 0.4 percent drop in economic growth amounts to almost 3.5 trillion U.S. dollars in lost economic output.
However, these predictions were made prior to COVID-19 becoming a global pandemic, and before the implementation of widespread restrictions on social contact to stop the spread of the virus.
Since then, global stock markets have suffered dramatic falls due to the outbreak, and the Dow Jones reported its largest-ever single day fall of almost 3,000 points on March 16, 2020 – beating its previous record of 2,300 points that was set only four days earlier. "

I just figure that if this is part of the new norm of globalised diseases and COVID is actually quite mild, a proper pandemic would be a bit of an international show stopper.

But as you've pointed out, domestic markets such as real estate may react very differently, and in ways that for some are highly undesirable.

I agree with Rundle when he says that if, in the future, the shit really hits the fan, neoliberalism will morph and push on regardless.

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freeride76 Monday, 4 Jan 2021 at 1:33pm

I didn't realise the article was written 8 months ago.

so the "end of days" tone, echoed mostly in the comments may have been more appropriate then.

Most of that lost stock market value has been regained, with interest.

Which makes things even more bizarre. despite the pandemic and the so-called "biggest recession since the Great Depression", in a lot of markets it's party like it's 1999 time.

I think there are bigger structural changes afoot personally.

I think we are seeing the decoupling of profit/asset growth from human capacity and the first signs of what Yuval Harari termed the "useless class".

In which case, the recession, which affects mostly this class, has no overall effect on aggregate demand on differing asset classes.

Boomer wealth and the re-circulation of wealth from asset holders and govt stimulus is easily compensating for the diminishment of income from this class.

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truebluebasher Tuesday, 5 Jan 2021 at 2:18am

Good one Quint..
Govt won't stop peddling those cheap un-Australian masks .
Health Minister should have no problem wearing the $110,000 fine.

PM: "COVIDSafe app is 99.99% effective at warding off the virus!"
"We swear no one has ever traced a positive covid case back to one of our apps!"

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thermalben Tuesday, 5 Jan 2021 at 7:33am

Wow - the UK's daily trend since Dec is staggering.

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Fliplid Tuesday, 5 Jan 2021 at 7:57am

Interesting to see if there is any spike in Oz after the Sydney test.

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Westofthelake Tuesday, 5 Jan 2021 at 9:18am

Looking at Ben's graph above, is it any wonder England is going into a 7 week lockdown...

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AndyM Tuesday, 5 Jan 2021 at 9:50am

"I think there are bigger structural changes afoot personally.
I think we are seeing the decoupling of profit/asset growth from human capacity and the first signs of what Yuval Harari termed the "useless class"."

I think we're all aware of conscious neolib policies to shift money from the bottom to the top and I wonder if this decoupling is also conscious, or a function of financial markets.

Had a quick read-up of Yuval Harari and if the current development of the working underclass or "the useless class" is as profound as the working class created by the Industrial Revolution, it doesn't describe a good future for the masses.

The delivery drivers and the coffee makers dodging the Range Rovers, Porsches and Mercs on the streets of Lennox and Byron.

Wonder if Artificial Intelligence can work out an algorithm for the perfect flat white?

"99 percent of human qualities and abilities are simply redundant for the performance of most modern jobs."

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truebluebasher Tuesday, 5 Jan 2021 at 2:39pm

re: AndyM / Ben's UK Graph of new Variant Strain.

UK Hull Uni prepares for New Term...(No books needed for 1st lesson!)

New UK strain B.1.1.7 has amino acid asparagine (N) spike replaced by tyrosine(Y)
R= (Additional Cases)
US =R 1.15 (vs) UK = R 1.1 > R 1.30 or (50% more transmissible)
10 UK carriers will infect between 11 - 13 others

Mostly spreads among youth > (Schools are closed/closing)
7% 0-9 / 19% 10-19 / 16% 20-29 / 17% 30-39 / 18% 40-49 / 14% 50-59...
Reversing original Covid - Seniors are least affected > 6% 60-69 / 3% 70-79

(29 Nov- 29 Dec) 20-39 y'o from 27.5% to 41.5%

The new strain is in 34 countries.
More contagious but no extra ratio of hospitalizations or fatalities as to age.
Claims that Hospitals are full of Kidz is explained that Holidays usually are full.
UK Health play down any serious illness with Kids & dampen any Kidz case rises.

Perfect Storm. (UK School Holidays)
Kids also hide the virus the best & explains the rapid case rises in high pop areas.
B.1.1.7 is now the Dominant strain in UK (re: Redeploy of untested run vax dosing )
(Unsymptomatic) Seniors 30% > Adults 40% >Teens 50% > Kidz 70%

Govt is fine with rapid tests in schools to return more negatives & confidence.
They're only fooling themselves as cases are skyrocketing.
Only premium Lab Testing & Endless resource will trace the hidden virus in Kidz.
Near impossible task during biggest ever UK Pandemic & Vax roll out!

*Insane new Stats flip everything we were told about Covid on it's head...

Teenagers are 7 x more likely to bring home virus & spread covid thru the family.
Under 16's are more likely to be the first case than over 17 y'olds. (That's New!)

[ Keep super spreading Cheerleaders in detention to save the World ] Sounds right?

"Nite Luv! Your turn to put the Kidz out!"...

[AD] [ Qld Govt back2school Supplies ]
Secretly used & kinda banned 100% UV blocked airtight Schoolies Kennels.
Exposed & dobbed in by a bitchy couple off the Essential 'Hot Block Hotel Breach'.

UPDATE ...(5 cases of 70% more infectious UK strain in OZ)
Vic Cops want to ban UK Mutants ... read most wild News Title ever!

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velocityjohnno Tuesday, 5 Jan 2021 at 2:05pm

Very interesting tbb.

News on TV suggests Boris has done a very Dan-style lockdown for England, very similar to the restrictions in Melbourne over winter.

AndyM - re: useless class and societal shifts: "surfing for Paul" becomes an actual, supported way of life. Better get those reos perfect! Surfing for Paul or revolution! 1990s redux.

Been reading on the market's disconnect from the economy this morning, it's been this way for a long time, since 2008 at least. ctrl_p

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truebluebasher Tuesday, 5 Jan 2021 at 2:31pm

Covid 19 Queues are well past their use by date - Join the Happy 21st Conga Line.


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troppo dichotomy Tuesday, 5 Jan 2021 at 4:05pm

I think there should be quarantine before boarding your flight.Maybe then we wouldn't be flying in sick people every day and dealing with lock downs.

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san Guine Tuesday, 5 Jan 2021 at 5:36pm

Hi Udo,

The problem with that process is that Day 11 is the key/scientificallly accepted date post initial contact (I was involved in furloughing staff at the hospital where I work), at which you would expect to be "virus -free" .

So, if your contact was say, days 1-8, you might actually swab negative before you jumped on the plane.

There are also huge privacy issues around the handling of personal medical information.
However as the vaccines are rolled out my best guess is that the airlines will have some kind of vaccination certificate to clear you to fly.

"You can't make tracks, if you don't vaxx" : )

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san Guine Tuesday, 5 Jan 2021 at 6:16pm
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Supafreak Tuesday, 5 Jan 2021 at 8:55pm

TBB I would be very interested to read your thoughts on these links and if you rate trial site news

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Blowin Tuesday, 5 Jan 2021 at 8:57pm

Getting closer to the heart of it now regarding the plan to eternally surveil people.

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AndyM Wednesday, 6 Jan 2021 at 12:02am

With the current government's track record, I couldn't believe how many people in Australia were just gagging to get on board with that tracing app.

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Supafreak Wednesday, 6 Jan 2021 at 12:48am

I work on a golf course in tweed , it is now mandatory to use the nsw service covid safe app to check in at start and finish of shift. I understand it’s for contact tracing but it seems a bit over the top , I don’t really come in contact with anyone sitting on a mower all day.

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thermalben Wednesday, 6 Jan 2021 at 6:57am

Rapidly deteriorating situation in Ireland (where I have family).

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thermalben Wednesday, 6 Jan 2021 at 7:01am

And in the UK:

"The latest numbers from the Office of National Statistics estimate that one in 50 people in England had COVID-19 between December 27 and January 2, up from an estimated one in 900 with the infection on September 10. London is at the peak of infections, with an estimated one in 30 people having the virus last week, more than 3 per cent of the city's population."

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Craig Wednesday, 6 Jan 2021 at 7:32am

Wow re Ireland and UK.

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simba Wednesday, 6 Jan 2021 at 8:12am

This thing could go anywhere ......just saw on the news airlines want to open up air travel ........joke right....

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Distracted Wednesday, 6 Jan 2021 at 8:13am

That Ireland data is scary.... reckon that could be post Xmas spreading event?

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velocityjohnno Wednesday, 6 Jan 2021 at 8:36am

Those are mental numbers & spike.

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velocityjohnno Wednesday, 6 Jan 2021 at 8:53am

Airlines are just such a massive vector for it... Vic Gov as part of yesterday's presser announced we've had 27 cases in hotel quarantine, 8 of them being flight crew, so a much higher %.

The time for personal aircraft is right now!

"Just going to have a flight to Indo for a surf, yes mum, I'll socially isolate, no mum, I'll be out in the outer islands, hardly any people there anyway, yes mum, I'll check the oil in the plane"

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Fraser G Wednesday, 6 Jan 2021 at 9:38am

Just found out an old mate that has been in the UK for years has been dealing with Covid for the last couple of weeks."Aches and pains are starting to go but the cough and ability to get a full breath are not"...super fit guy...scary stuff.

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Supafreak Thursday, 7 Jan 2021 at 5:26pm

Where are the government adds and our so-called “Chief Medical Officers” informing Australians about the importance of boosting our immune systems and the importance of maintaining adequate levels of Vitamin D ?

If we were seriously concerned about people’s health - wouldn’t we be informing people about this ...... ?

Our what about Zinc levels ?

Where is the discussion and debate on rolling out Ivermectin yesterday as a prophylaxis to high risk groups ?

Instead we get this scaremongering nonsense, with calls for everyone to line up and be injected.

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JQ Thursday, 7 Jan 2021 at 5:54pm

Perhaps the height of summer is not the most appropriate time to campaign on getting appropriate vitamin D Supafreak?

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Supafreak Thursday, 7 Jan 2021 at 6:02pm

Yeah I understand what you’re saying but this is aimed at the elderly who are most at risk with weak immune systems , I look after my mother who is 84 and her doctor advised her to take vitamin D daily regardless of time of year , she walks twice a day for 15 minutes with a wide brimmed hat and covered up. The relationship with your personal GP is I believe very important. At the moment governments with “ experts “ dictate what all must do . I hope there not the same “experts “ from married at first sight .

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Supafreak Thursday, 7 Jan 2021 at 6:27pm

You know what really has me stumped ? If Dr. Borody had such success back in August when he alerted the government why wasn’t a Australian trial set up ? Why have so many other countries done there own trials with success only to have them discredited as not being gold standard trials ? Look maybe all these professors, doctors , frontline covid icu doctors, researchers , patient testimonies are all wrong but if they are right then some shit is surely going to hit the fan. Governments around the world particularly ours would be not just embarrassed but held responsible for inflicting so much pain on society. Sure early on nobody new what was the best way of handling the pandemic and lockdown was the only way but for Dr Borody to be shunned and hushed up without a full investigation makes my mind boggle. After all this doctor is credited with , an investigation was warranted. I believe with all the new trials around the world , the truth will be revealed.

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Supafreak Thursday, 7 Jan 2021 at 7:41pm

In case anyone is wondering who Dr. Borody is this is a old ABC story. He likes to think outside the box and gets results.

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indo-dreaming Thursday, 7 Jan 2021 at 7:56pm

Surely this isn't real?

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Supafreak Thursday, 7 Jan 2021 at 8:23pm

Yeah indo , lots of shit getting stirred up again , hard to know what to believe these days with so much hate and propaganda.

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Supafreak Thursday, 7 Jan 2021 at 8:34pm


Why are the ABC not reporting on this ?

Just published study from Professor Roberto R. Hirsch and Professor Hector E. Carvallo - both specialists in infectious diseases.

* 162 health care workers taking Ivermectin as a prophylaxis to prevent infection from Covid.

* One dose of Ivermectin a week, for 8 weeks - then nothing for 4 months.

* Not a single COVID infection amongst any of the group since June. Not even one !

* Yet, it would be expected that as a group of health care workers they’d have around a 25% infection rate.

Professors Hirsh and Carvallo recommend in their paper that Ivermectin prophylaxis be extended to all Heath Care workers and vulnerable populations.

What are we waiting for ?

Given that the Labor Party are calling for the vaccines to be rushed out - why aren’t they calling for Ivermectin to also be rushed out - when it’s available now, shows superior results to the vaccine, and has a known safety profile from over 30 years of data and over billions of doses ?

Where is Labor’s shadow Health Minister, Chris Bowen - is he going to listen to Professors Hirsh and Carvallo - or does he think they are also part of some grand conspiracy?