Good surf Sunday, dicey most of next week

Craig Brokensha picture
Craig Brokensha (Craig)

Western Australian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday December 22nd)

Best Days: Sunday morning Margs and Mandurah, early Monday Margs, next Saturday morning Margs

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

  • Smaller tomorrow with strong S/SE-SE morning winds
  • Moderate sized + SW groundswell Sun, likely undersized early with mod-fresh E/SE winds ahead of strong sea breezes
  • Slowly easing swell Mon with E/SE-SE tending S/SW winds
  • Strengthening S/SW tending SW winds Tue, strong S/SE Wed
  • Small, background mid-period swell Thu with strong E/SE winds ahead of sea breezes both Thu/Fri
  • Moderate sized, inconsistent SW groundswell building next Fri PM, easing Sat with mod-fresh E/SE tending strong S/SW winds

Recap

Small yesterday, with a small pulse of mid-period swell across the South West today that’s been surfable when offshore winds laid down a touch, hot and tiny to the north and best for a swim.

This weekend and next week (Dec 23 - 29)

Looking at the weekend ahead, and Sunday is the standout with tomorrow due to back off further in size along with strong SE-S/SE winds, leaving limited options across the South West.

On Sunday a mix of SW groundswell and mid-period energy are due to fill in, generated by fetches of strong to gale-force winds west and east of the Heard Island region over the past week.

The South West should see good though inconsistent 5-6ft sets developing on the magnets through the morning (undersized early) with building 1-2ft waves across Mandurah, tiny in Perth. Winds look great and moderate to fresh out of the E/SE before strong sea breezes kick in. 

The easing trend should be slowed into Monday with easing 4-5ft sets across the South West, tiny to the north though early E/SE-SE winds in the South West will swing more S/SW and strengthen so go early.

This will be related to a trough moving through and behind it, unfavourable S/SW winds are now due across the South West come Tuesday, SW to the north along with some tiny, local windswell as they strengthen into the afternoon.

Winds should revert back to the S/SE on Wednesday but without any major swell, with the next pulse of energy due later week from the S/SW.

The source will be a relatively weak polar frontal system firing up to our south-west and with this, only slow 3-4ft sets are due across the South West, tiny to the north. Strong E/SE winds are due to kick in on Thursday and Friday mornings ahead of strong sea breezes, weaker into Saturday morning along with some new, long-range groundswell.

The source of this groundswell is in our far swell window, south of South Africa. A fetch of gale to severe-gale W/NW winds will generate slow 4-5ft+ sets across the South West when it peaks, tiny to the north. With the arrival due Friday afternoon, next Saturday looks the best chance to surf this swell as it eases.

More on this Monday, have a great weekend!