Weaker swells with less than ideal winds

Craig Brokensha picture
Craig Brokensha (Craig)

Western Australia Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday January 4th)

Best Days: Saturday morning protected spots in the South West and Mandurah, Sunday morning protected spots in the South West, Monday morning, Tuesday morning in the South West, later next week

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

  • Moderate sized + SW groundswell Sat with strong S/SE tending S/SW-SW winds
  • Easing surf Sun with fresh S/SE-SE tending S/SW winds
  • Moderate sized mid-period SW swell Mon with gusty SE tending S/SW winds
  • Easing surf Tue with morning E/SE winds
  • Small reinforcing SW swell Wed with S winds
  • Better moderate sized + SW swell Fri week with E/SE-SE morning winds

Recap

Steadying surf thanks to a reinforcing pulse of S/SW swell yesterday coming in at 4-5ft in the South West though a little ragged and wind affected, 1-2ft in Mandurah with tiny waves across Perth.

Today is smaller again but clean with the South West magnets fairing the best under strong but abating offshore winds.

This week and next (Jan 5 - 13)

The size will continue to bottom out into tomorrow morning across the state and conditions looks clean with strong but easing E tending E/NE winds ahead of weak sea breezes.

A trough looks to bring an onshore S/SW change to the South West around dawn with cleaner conditions further north but with no size.

Into the weekend a high will start to edge in, swinging winds around to the S/SE but with strength and we're expected to see a pulse of SW groundswell generated by a tight low firing up to our south-west tomorrow.

A burst of SW gales should produce a kick to 6ft on the sets in the South West during the morning Saturday with Mandurah building to 2ft through the day and 1-2ft across Perth late morning/midday. Those strong S/SE winds will limit options through the morning, shifting strong S/SW-SW into the afternoon.

Weaker S/SE-SE winds are due into Sunday as the swell starts to ease.

Later in the day Sunday but more so Monday, a fun pulse of mid-period swell is due, but this is downgraded in size from Monday's outlook.

Both EC and GFS were in alignment regarding a strong low firing up to our south-west but we're now looking at a weaker mid-latitude front generating a fetch of strong W/SW winds.

This should produce a fun swell for Monday to 4-5ft+ in the South West magnets, 1-2ft in Mandurah and Perth.

Morning SE winds will create clean conditions before sea breezes kick in, smaller Tuesday but with a better E/SE morning wind.

Some small pulses of reinforcing SW swell are due through Wednesday and Friday respectively generated by a broad, slow moving polar low through our swell window Sunday through Tuesday next week.

It'll be a slow moving system with an initial pre-frontal W/NW fetch due to give way to a post-frontal W/SW fetch. The initial fetch should generate some small 3-5ft surf across the South West Wednesday, with the secondary developments due to generate a bigger, mid-period SW swell for Friday to 4-6ft in the South West, 2ft across Mandurah and 1-2ft in Perth.

Winds look unfavourable Wednesday and Thursday as a trough moves through, with better E/SE-SE winds possible on Friday when the best pulse arrives. More on this Friday.