Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 13th November)

Best Days: Exposed beaches Sunday, desperate surfers Surf Coast Monday and Tuesday mornings, exposed beaches Wednesday

Recap

A window of decent conditions across the Mornington Peninsula and Phillip Island yesterday morning with 2-3ft of W/SW swell, clean on the Surf Coast but tiny.

Today there's a touch more westerly swell across the state but the Surf Coast which is cleanest remains a tease and mostly tiny.

This weekend and next week (Nov 14 - 20)

Looking at the weekend and it'll be one of two halves.

The models are showing a kick in size tomorrow, but in reality it's incorrectly combining a couple of weak, small to tiny swells. That being a localised windswell and mid-period W/SW swell from a weakening mid-latitude low that's moving across us.

Size wise expect similar surf today with 1-1.5ft waves on the Surf Coast and 3ft sets to the east under a W/NW-NW morning breeze, giving into afternoon S'ly sea breezes.

We then look at the better surf day, that being Sunday as an inconsistent, long-period W/SW groundswell builds slowly under strengthening offshore NE tending N/NE winds, possibly N into the evening.

The swell was generated in our far to medium-range swell window by a strong low between Heard Island and Western Australia.

A great fetch of severe-gale W/SW winds were projected towards us, weakening through yesterday morning.

There'll be long waits for the sets but we should see good, straight lines of swell building Sunday (you'll need a good bank), increasing from 2ft in the morning on the Mornington Peninsula to 3-4ft through the afternoon and likely 3-5ft late.

The Surf Coast will be tiny and possibly reaching 2ft on the sets late in the day.

A cold front moving through Monday will shift winds to the W/NW as the distant W/SW groundswell peaks, then eases along with some small, building mid-period W/SW swell.

Size size the Surf Coast looks to come in around 2ft+ with 4-5ft sets to the east, cleanest during the morning before winds shift stronger SW.

Similar sized surf is due into Tuesday morning, that being 2ft+ waves on the Surf Coast and 4ft sets to the east as morning W/NW winds favour the Surf Coast again ahead of S/SW sea breezes.

Winds should swing back to the N/NE on Wednesday morning as a high slides in after the frontal activity with a mix of long-range W/SW swell and easing mid-period energy. The beaches look to offer fun waves ranging between 3-4ft, strongest into the afternoon as the long-range energy peaks.

The source of the long-range energy is a frontal progression that's currently south-west of Western Australia, firing up on the tail of the low bringing Sunday's swell, but there'll be no major size attached to it.

Longer term we may see the remnants of this frontal progression strengthening under WA early next week, generating a moderate sized W/SW groundswell late week, but timing wise it looks to arrive with a trough and onshore change, typical! More on this Monday. Have a great weekend!