Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 6th June)

Best Days: Wednesday both coasts, Thursday morning Surf Coast, Saturday morning both coasts, Sunday both coasts

Recap

Light variable winds and fun clean waves across both coasts each morning over the weekend, biggest and best on the Mornington Peninsula beaches and Phillip Island.

Today small leftovers were seen across both coasts to 1-2ft on the Surf Coast and 3ft on the Mornington Peninsula. A slight kick in W/SW swell is due across the Mornington Peninsula into this afternoon, while the Surf Coast may see some easterly groundswell from the large swell impacting the East Coast. The buoys are yet to show this yet, though if it happens 3ft sets are likely across the southern extent.

This week and weekend (Jun 7 - 12)

This afternoon's increase in W/SW and E'ly swell are both due to ease through tomorrow but another mid-latitude low moving in from the west will aim a slow moving fetch of W/SW tending SW winds through our swell window.

This should kick up building levels of SW swell from a small 1-2ft to 2-3ft later in the day on the Surf Coast and from 3-4ft to 4-5ft on the Mornington Peninsula. The easterly groundswell if present is due to ease from 3ft or so tomorrow morning across the southern extent of the Surf Coast.

Fresh and early W/NW winds will give into a strong SW change, so with the small surf west of Melbourne, it's probably not worth the drive from Melbourne.

Into Wednesday our new inconsistent but strong W/SW groundswell is still on track with a vigorous polar frontal progression generating it firing up in the Heard Island region over the weekend.

The swell is due to fill in overnight Tuesday and peak Wednesday to an inconsistent 3-4ft on the Surf Coast and 6ft+ on the Mornington Peninsula. Conditions will improve through the day as well with a moderate to fresh NW tending N'ly breeze.

The swell should then ease through Thursday under fresh NW winds ahead of a late SW change.

Our next increase in size will be through Friday from a strengthening front pushing in across us Thursday evening. A mid-period and weak increase in swell is due, building to 3ft through the day on the Surf Coast and 4-6ft on the Mornington Peninsula but with W/NW to W/SW winds.

A better SW groundswell is due into the afternoon though from a stronger polar front pushing up on the back of the initial system, with better 3-4ft+ sets due to develop across the Surf Coast into the afternoon and 6-8ft on the Mornington Peninsula, easing Sunday.

Winds on Saturday look a little funky with variable tending E/NE breezes Saturday and then much better N'ly tending N/NW winds Sunday. We'll have another look at this Wednesday.