Waves for keen surfers on the weekend, better east of Melbourne early next week

Craig Brokensha picture
Craig Brokensha (Craig)

Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 16th October)

Best Days: Early Saturday both coasts, Sunday Surf Coast for keen surfers, Monday and Tuesday east of Melbourne


Yesterday's pulse of W/SW groundswell performed a little better than expected with strong 2-3ft sets across exposed breaks on the Surf Coast under offshore winds, while the Mornington Peninsula saw solid 5ft sets.

Today a secondary pulse of flukey W/SW swell has come in at a similar size, with light favourable winds across both coasts early, although a change is now starting to push its way through.

This weekend (Oct 17 – 18)

Tomorrow is looking dicey, with smaller amounts of swell more in the 2ft+ range across exposed breaks on the Surf Coast and 3-5ft on the Mornington Peninsula, but with early variable breezes at dawn, increasing from the W ahead of a W/SW change around midday. So the early will be best.

Sunday's strong and powerful W/SW groundswell is tracking along nicely with the intense low producing it currently sitting under WA, aiming a fetch of gale to severe-gale W/SW winds towards us.

The low will move east through today and further tomorrow, producing a moderate to large sized W/SW groundswell that's now expected to exhibit two separate peaks. This is due to the low tracking a little quicker than the swell its producing today, with all day Sunday likely to offer similar sized surf.

The Surf Coast should offer 3-5ft waves, with the chance for the odd bigger bomb at 13th Beach through the day, while the Mornington Peninsula should come in around the 8ft range.

Winds are still a little dicey with a lingering S/SE'ly due in the wake of tomorrow's change, but selected locations will be more than workable.

Monday onwards (Oct 19 onwards)

Sunday's swell will ease through Monday but locations east of Melbourne and the beaches on the Surf Coast will improve with a NE tending N/NE breeze before afternoon sea breezes kick in. The Surf Coast should be easing from the 3ft+ range across exposed breaks and 6ft+ on the Mornington Peninsula.

Tuesday will be smaller again but clean across both coasts with local offshore winds, tending variable into the afternoon.

The very inconsistent and small W/SW groundswell due Wednesday is looking even less of an event with the latest data, as the strong low producing it to the south-west of WA pushes quickly north and out of our swell window this evening.

Small to tiny leftover waves are then due and with NW winds ahead of an onshore change, the Surf Coast will be the only option and not worth the effort at all.

Wednesday's change will be linked to a broad and vigorous but weakening polar front pushing up and into us, producing a spike in new short-range SW swell later in the day and Thursday morning, ahead of the groundswell proper Thursday afternoon and Friday.

Size wise the windswell will have plenty, with solid 3-4ft waves due across the Surf Coast and 6-8ft sets on the Mornington Peninsula, with the groundswell coming in at a similar size but with more power. Winds will be poor though and fresh from the S/SW Thursday.

Friday should see the swell ease from a similar size but with lingering S'ly breezes, which is unfortunate.

On the plus side, offshore N/NE winds are due into the weekend as the swell continues to ease, but we'll have another look at this on Monday. Have a great weekend!


coachPotato's picture
coachPotato's picture
coachPotato Friday, 16 Oct 2015 at 12:50pm

Hi Ben,

Will there be good waves next week? Or will it be too windy????


velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno Friday, 16 Oct 2015 at 2:01pm

Thanks Craig,
Plenty of detail in there for us to anticipate the weekend and into next week.

Gary G's picture
Gary G's picture
Gary G Friday, 16 Oct 2015 at 2:31pm

Love that comment VelocityJohnno, so much so that I'd even consider you an honorary Gary for the day. VelocityGary has quite the ring to it, don't you think?

With all my training, I like to think of myself as particularly well defined. Craig's forecasts consistently reach a Gary-like level of definition and just like Gary, they're really a sight to behold.

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno Friday, 16 Oct 2015 at 2:54pm

I reckon it's got a great ring to it Gary, I'm honoured!

These are the kind of threads to share stuff, so I'll introduce you all to the game of 'Choc Milk'. Most of Swellnet's traffic comes to the Vicco forecast page anyway.

OK to play you need 2 or more people. You must be surfing. When a particularly dangerous, big, or just silly wave or takeoff beckons and your mate looks like pulling back, quietly say 'Choc Milk'. Your mate is now required to attempt it. If he does not, he owes you a Choc Milk. The purpose of this game is to push your mates harder and make them charge. It's good for them too, as it expands the performance envelope. If they try and don't make it, everyone gets a laugh - but they have satisfied the Choc Milk challenge and owe you nothing. And if they don't attempt it and still pull back its good for you, as you get a Choc Milk.

Variant: with the groms, it can devolve into bribery, "Hey Dad I took the wave, you owe me a Choc Milk."

southey's picture
southey's picture
southey Saturday, 17 Oct 2015 at 1:33am

Hey Garro ,
This sounds mighty like a solo game I've played for years , of course it's open to any other participants that occupy the line up at any stage .
I tend to call it , " Go Cunt Go " .
The reward is if you don't go , don't expect to look even sideways at a set wave for the forseeable future . Only rules are that solo sessions can present yourself with exceptions . But amongst mates the consequences can be long withstanding , and in past days could result in one foregoing access to many other pleasures . Including but not confined to receiving shouts at the local watering hole , shotgun rights on long trips , radio access on said long trips , any social status whilst out in public after hours . Long term perpetrators can look forward to losing car keys , dignity or sole access rights to your missus tent .
Sometimes things have to go backwards to move forward ;-)

crustt's picture
crustt's picture
crustt Saturday, 17 Oct 2015 at 5:45am

That's a bit old school for these pups southy.:-D

Gary G's picture
Gary G's picture
Gary G Monday, 19 Oct 2015 at 1:07pm

Fellas! Sorry I was away from ye ol' interwebs all weekend while watching an Arnold Schwarzenegger movie marathon. Whilst my GoPro-filmed feats in the gym have probably surpassed Arnie's achievements, he's still an idol of mine

I love the idea of both of those games, although I'll probably swap the choc milks for a protein shake cause I'm entering my 'shredding for schoolies' training regime which will allow me to both look ripped AND enjoy guilt-free Bacardi Breezers all week while I'm up on the goldy. Gaz knows how you can have it all...

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot Friday, 16 Oct 2015 at 5:11pm

I'm a fan of the game vj

indo-dreaming's picture
indo-dreaming's picture
indo-dreaming Friday, 16 Oct 2015 at 6:29pm

Whatever you do don't bother with the Island when it goes NE as there is no banks whatsoever i can't remember the bank being this bad.

Pete7's picture
Pete7's picture
Pete7 Sunday, 18 Oct 2015 at 8:02pm

Same as the east coast
Barely a decent bank between gunna and Portsea
Flinders is never quite right
And westernport is crowded with fat mal riders
Maybe we can dig winkipop up and ship it over