Sunday morning the pick, poor into next week

Craig Brokensha picture
Craig Brokensha (Craig)

Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 10th October)

Best Days: Friday, Saturday morning, Sunday morning east of Melbourne


The Surf Coast was good for most of the day again yesterday with a clean 3ft of swell and offshore winds that persisted into the mid-afternoon. The Mornington Peninsula was cleaner but still a little lumpy and too big for the beaches.

Today conditions were great across both coasts with local offshore winds and smaller 2ft of swell on the Surf Coast and 4-5ft sets on the Mornington Peninsula.

This weekend (Oct 11 - 12)

Tomorrow won't be too special with a small clean 2ft of swell continuing across the Surf Coast with morning offshore W/NW breezes ahead of a SW'ly into the afternoon.

Now Sunday is the day everyone's been talking about and it's still looking a little funky wind wise but the swell is still on track.

A vigorous polar frontal progression that's moving under the country is producing a large SW groundswell that's expected to build through Sunday and and really muscle up through the afternoon ahead of a peak through the evening.

The Surf Coast should build from an inconsistent 3-4ft during the morning to 4-6ft later in the day while the Mornington Peninsula should build from 6ft+ early to 8ft+ through the afternoon.

A funky trough and then front responsible for the funky and changing wind forecasts is expected to sit on the West Coast Sunday morning with light offshore winds from the N'th ahead of a shift to the NW through the day and then S/SW through the afternoon.

Therefore at the peak of the swell we're likely to see unfavourable conditions.

Next week onwards (Oct 13 onwards)

Sunday afternoon's strong pulse of SW groundswell is due to ease off through Monday from 4-5ft and 6-8ft+ respectively but winds unfortunately look poor with the front behind the trough expected to move through in full bringing fresh SW tending strong S'ly winds.

There is a chance for an early W'ly across the Surf Coast at dawn so keep an eye on the local wind observations.

Tuesday and Wednesday will be a write-off with a solid but junky S/SE windswell along with strong onshore S/SE winds Tuesday and then S/SW winds on Wednesday.

By the time winds come good into possibly Thursday there isn't expected to much swell with a weak easing S/SW windswell across both coasts.

Therefore with this in mind, Sunday morning looks the best time to surf over the whole period. Have a great weekend!