Good across both coasts Thursday
Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 25th August)
Best Days: Wednesday easy of Melbourne, both coasts Thursday onwards into the weekend
The surf bottomed out as expected on Saturday with tiny waves left across the Surf Coast, while more exposed spots had small clean offerings.
Sunday remained tiny, with a very long-range and inconsistent W/SW groundswell not appearing until just before dark. This is about 6-12 hours later than expected, and a similar trend was seen in WA where the swell hit first. This is a real shame as conditions were clean right until late as well.
Today the swell has held in but conditions are poor with a trough moving across us bringing fresh S/SE winds.
This week (Aug 26 - 29)
A mix of inconsistent and long-range W/SW groundswell should ease back through tomorrow across both coasts from an infrequent 3ft on the Surf Coast and 5-6ft on the Mornington Peninsula.
All the action will be focussed east of Melbourne though as winds swing E/NE through the morning and back to the SE into the afternoon.
Wednesday will be cleaner on the Surf Coast with a morning offshore N/NW breeze but there won't be much size about with easing 2ft sets and larger and still clean 3-4ft+ waves on the Mornington Peninsula.
Into Thursday a secondary long-range W/SW groundswell similar to what was expected later Sunday and today is due across the state on Thursday. This has been generated by another vigorous polar frontal progression in the Southern Indian Ocean, but this system was a touch further south and better aligned in our swell window than the last.
The swell should arrive overnight Wednesday and peak Thursday to an inconsistent 3ft+ on the Surf Coast and 6ft+ on the Mornington Peninsula.
Winds look good for the Surf Coast and offshore from the N/NW, while the Mornington Peninsula should see a morning N'ly before weak afternoon onshores move in.
A slight drop in size is due into Thursday afternoon ahead of a more noticeable drop from 2-3ft and 4-6ft respectively Friday under local offshores across both coasts.
This weekend onwards (Aug 30 onwards)
The weekend is looking slow with small and inconsistent levels of W/SW groundswell due to keep exposed spots topped up with fun waves under offshore winds from the north quadrant. Both coasts should be clean as winds swing locally offshore each morning.
Longer term there's nothing too major on the cards besides medium sized levels of W/SW groundswell but we'll review this Wednesday.