Poor tomorrow but we should see lighter winds in Mandurah and Perth on Sunday with a new, building XL groundswell. A secondary XL swell is due next week, as winds ease and swing more offshore.
East Coast or hybrid low is now drifting towards Fraser Island, anchored by a huge high (1038hPa) just east of Tasmania. That's directing gales towards SEQLD, and a broad fetch of E/SE winds as far south as the Hunter.
Plenty of swell over the coming period following a low point tomorrow. Options will open up for both the Mid Coast and South Coast.
Great surf across the beaches from Sunday ahead of a swing in winds to the west and some new groundswell for the reefs Tuesday onwards.
The remains of a low near the South Island are continuing to send south quadrant swells towards Tasmania and, most notably, a trough of low pressure in the Coral Sea is deepening and expected to activate into a fully fledged Coral Sea surface low as an upper trough moves over it from inland QLD tomorrow. This low will provide large E’ly quadrant swells for a huge swathe of the Eastern Seaboard, from the Central QLD Coast to Tasmania over the coming week.
The best, most consistent swell is due tomorrow ahead of more distant, west energy on the weekend and early next week.
There is tons of swell inbound for the state but the South West will battle with onshore winds.
By Friday we’ll see the Coral Sea low looking very impressive on the map and an E’ly fetch extend down into temperate latitudes. The low centre is expected to be NE of Fraser Island with E’ly gales aimed straight at SEQLD.
The basic building blocks as we described them in Monday's notes are now in place for (another!) dynamic La Niña mediated surf/weather event. A dominant high pressure system (1034hPa) is strengthening as it slowly crosses Tasmania, a typical Summer latitude for high pressure. The remains of a low near the South Island are continuing to send south quadrant swells our way and most notably a trough of low pressure in the Coral Sea is deepening and expected to activate into a fully fledged Coral Sea surface low as an upper trough moves over it from inland QLD tomorrow.
Smaller pulses of swell for the coming days ranging from south to west, with larger surf developing out of the west next week.
