South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed 20th July)

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Coast-hugging Low expected to form off CQ coast Thurs, leading to steep spike on size Thurs
• Surf becoming XL and stormy Fri, surfable at only the most protected Points with fresh SE winds
• Large surf continues over the weekend, with winds tending more S’ly as low moves away
• Drop in size Mon with winds rapidly improving 
• Plenty of leftover size Tues with offshore winds
• More S swell, possibly sizey in NENSW, from Thurs onwards

Recap

Not much on offer across the region since Mon with windy 2ft surf in SEQLD and some larger but low quality 3-4ft surf on offer in NENSW. Much more swell to come as a low drifts down from the Coral Sea from tomorrow. Read on for details.

Non-descript peaks on offer today with deteriorating conditions

This week (July 20-22)

The basic building blocks as we described them in Mondays notes are now in place for (another!) dynamic La Niña mediated surf/weather event. A dominant high pressure system (1034hPa) is strengthening as it slowly crosses Tasmania, a typical Summer latitude for high pressure. They remains of a low near the South Island are continuing to send south quadrant swells our way and most notably a trough of low pressure in the Coral Sea is deepening and expected to activate into a fully fledged Coral Sea surface low as an upper trough moves over it from inland QLD tomorrow. This low will provide large E’ly swells for a huge swathe of the Eastern Seaboard, from the Central QLD Coast to Tasmania over the coming week.

In the short run and with the high slowly moving Eastwards and the trough beginning to really deepen through Thursday we’ll see an Initial start of SE swell get rapidly overtaken by building E-E/SE swell through the day. Size will quickly ramp up on the Sunshine Coast from lunch-time, with a slightly later increase on the Gold Coast and then propagating into NENSW. Expect fresh SE winds, so Points only. Size initially in the 3ft range, building through the region on the timeline mentioned above into the 6ft range, bigger on open stretches of E facing coast.

By Friday we’ll see the Coral Sea low looking very impressive on the map (see below) and an E’ly fetch extend down into temperate latitudes. The low centre is expected to be NE of Fraser Island with E’ly gales aimed straight at SEQLD. Typically, this translates into 10ft+ surf with Pointbreaks in the 6-8ft range, grading smaller into the more sheltered inner Bays of North Facing Points. Swell direction will be critical for N facing Points, and as the low tracks south, a subtle shift in angle from E to E/SE will curtail size at more sheltered Points, likely in quite a rapid fashion. More exposed Points and those on the Southern Gold Coast will hold size all day, likely maxing out the outer sections.

This weekend (July 23-24)

Plenty of size, and wind this weekend. There’s still a little wriggle room over the peak of the swell but SEQLD will likely have seen it late Friday, almost definitely on the Sunshine Coast. Sat is still likely to be solid, although much smaller at N facing Points on the Sunshine Coast.

Expect continuing 6-8ft surf on the Gold Coast and a much larger peak in NENSW, as the low begins to drift SE.

Size on the open stretches is expected to be in excess of 10ft, likely 10-12ft and with gale force SE to SSE winds only a handful of rideable spots. A few more locations may become rideable Sat a’noon as wind shifts more SSE, or even S’ly. 

Wind shifts further S to SSW, possibly SW on the Sunshine Coast and opening up potential for more exposed spots to be ridden as swell direction shifts more ESE-SE, with a component of short range SSE swell from gales around the Western flank of the low. 

Expect 8-10ft surf to continue in NENSW, grading smaller 6-8ft on the Gold Coast and 5-6ft on the Sunshine Coast, with N facing Points there becoming very small. Only a handful of locations will be surfable across NENSW.

It’ll be big, and experts only on Sunday, at the few rideable spots.

Next week (July 25 onwards)

A slow drift SE towards the North Island of the Coral Sea low keeps an active fetch of E’ly gales extending from the North Island back into the Tasman Sea early next week although better aimed at temperate NSW. That will see a quite quick roll off on size for the region early next week with some residual size holding in Mon-Tues.

Expect size in the 4-6ft range Mon in NENSW, smaller 3-5ft in SEQLD, with a slight and slow easing trend likely, and clean conditions becoming established under a SW flow, that is likely to tend to NE breezes through the a’noon.

Tuesday looks fantastic with a light W’ly flow in advance of a cold front and 4ft of ESE swell on offer. If there are any sandbank left then Tues should be great. 

From mid-week onwards another cold front inflames the Tasman Sea, merging with the remnants of the low to generate a solid S swell, likely to build Wed into the 6ft+ range (possibly bigger), with fresh SW winds tending S’ly.

S swells then pad out the rest of next week, with more cold fronts expected to enter the Tasman later next week into the weekend 30/31 July.

Keep those step-ups handy, looks like they will get a fair work-out over the short to medium term.

Check back Fri and we’ll see how this Coral Sea low is shaping up as we head into the weekend.