The trough will slowly turn south on Thursday, and then hasten its southerly track during the day, with the axis expected south of Coffs by Thursday night and Forster by Friday morning.
This synoptic set up is akin to a mid-strength black nor’easter, with an impressive fetch stretching all the way from Far Southern NSW to Fiji and Tonga.
We'll see building levels of NE tending E/NE swell this period follow by a windy, cold S'ly swell.
Our strong W/SW groundswell is on track with N-NE winds favouring some spots over others.
Make the most of today (South West) ahead of the next round of strong swell early next week with offshore winds.
The surf will be best over the coming days ahead of a large, stormy cold outbreak early next week (and much needed soaking).
Following a large, strong SW groundswell Friday, early next week looks very dynamic but mostly poor besides Monday afternoon.
Increasing size and activity from Thursday.
We should see some tiny, possibly just rideable surf from the system through the week, more likely after Wed as the fetch draws out into the Northern Tasman.
These small lows may move north, then east and finally south or may coalesce in a more classic Tasman Low or ECL variant. Either way we should see some quality E/NE swell for Tas as the fetch draws out through the Tasman.
