We’ve got good model agreement now that through Mon we’ll see a deep trough develop from the Coral Sea down to a terminus somewhere on the MNC to lower North Coast with good odds we will see a surface low develop at that terminus.

The initial swells will be generated by overlapping fronts tracking through the Southern Ocean, whereas the large pulse will be courtesy of a rapidly deepening cut-off mid-latitude low at the tail end of the frontal sequence.

Weaker pressure gradients are now in the Coral Sea, as the synoptic pattern takes a pause in between dominant high pressure systems.

Next week still looks dynamic with potential for a deep trough or low in the Tasman, although we are going to have to play it day by day due to poor model to model and run to run consistency.