We’ve got good model agreement now that through Mon we’ll see a deep trough develop from the Coral Sea down to a terminus somewhere on the MNC to lower North Coast with good odds we will see a surface low develop at that terminus.
The initial swells will be generated by overlapping fronts tracking through the Southern Ocean, whereas the large pulse will be courtesy of a rapidly deepening cut-off mid-latitude low at the tail end of the frontal sequence.
Friday should see similar conditions for most of the day ahead of a late SW change, but with building size from a much stronger fetch pushing through the Southern Ocean, the strongest part of which is contained with the associated polar low.
Weaker pressure gradients are now in the Coral Sea, as the synoptic pattern takes a pause in between dominant high pressure systems.
Friday’s swell increase will start off undersized, with the biggest waves expected at the end of the day.
Next week still looks dynamic with potential for a deep trough or low in the Tasman, although we are going to have to play it day by day due to poor model to model and run to run consistency.
Thursday’s size is contingent on whatever appears overnight, as the pulse expected later today was/is expected to be the start of an initially modest new groundswell that would precede a bigger swell for Friday ahead of a peak on Saturday.
Next week still looks dynamic with potential for a deep trough or low in the Tasman, although we are going to have to play it day by day due to poor model to model and run to run consistency
Next week still looks dynamic with potential for a deep trough or low in the Tasman, although we are going to have to play it day by day due to poor model to model and run to run consistency.
The long term outlook is shaping up to deliver a series of large, back to back groundswells.
