Sydney Hunter Illawarra Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri July 25th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• NE windswell building Sat with fresh N-N/NE winds tending NW in the a’noon
• Size easing rapidly Sun with winds from the NW through W/NW
• Small background E swells over the weekend and persisting into next week
• Small start to next week- Mon and Tues relying on background E swells under offshore winds
• Small flush of S swell Tues/Wed
• S swell developing Thurs next week with low pressure in Tasman- low confidence in specifics so check back Mon for latest update

Recap

Yesterday saw a workable mix of S and E swells offering up some fun beachies in the 2 occ. 3ft range with offshore breezes tending to weak a’noon seabreezes. Today is more S swell dominated with S swell to 2-3ft, bigger 3ft at S swell magnets like the Hunter and Central Coast. A bit on the weak side but still offering a fun surfable wave at S exposed breaks under light land breezes which are expected to tend N then NE and really crank up as the a’noon progresses. 

S facing beach offering a nice blend of swells under offshore winds

This weekend (July 26-27)

No great change to the weekend f/cast. High pressure has drifted up over NENSW and  into the Tasman and an approaching trough and cut-off low really ramps up the pressure gradient short term, leading to fresh/strong N/NE-N’ly winds off the coast. Inshore we’ll see those winds between 20-30 kts through the morning with tendency to veer more NW through the a’noon, at slightly less velocity. 

NE windswell from this source is still expected to offer surf in the 2-3ft range with the occ. bigger set and more size on the south coast. There should be a sweet spot as winds shift more NW and clean up spots with just a touch of wind protection. Small background E-E/NE swells from winds feeding into the retreating trough will hold some 2ft sets through the day. 

Winds shift W-W/NW overnight and into the morning, veering NW at times at fresh paces through Sun. NE windswell will have left the building so we’ll be looking at small E’ly swells for the main swell source. Not much energy there apart from the occ. 2ft set. Worth a look if you can find somewhere a little protected from the stiff offshore. 

Next week (July 28 onwards)

The cut-off low which approaches the SE of the continent on the weekend moves SE over Tasmania late on the weekend and drifts SE of the island state through Mon, holding a W’ly flow across the eastern seaboard, weaker as you head north into the sub-tropics. 

Not much size to start the new week. The retreating E’ly fetch in the South Pacific will maintain background E’ly swells with some possible embedded pulses but not offering much more than an inconsistent 2ft through Mon and Tues, a notch bigger Wed. Conditions will be offshore so it will be worth a look around if you have a nice small wave bank on tap. 

The low near Tasmania does have a weak front attached early next week capable of a small flush of S swell likely later Tues into Wed and offering 2-3ft surf at S swell magnets.

From mid next week things still look interesting but models have been all over the place trying to resolve it so expect major revisions when we come back Mon. 

Low pressure formation looks likely, possibly a strong cut-off low moving into the Tasman Thurs and offering an initial spike in S swell Thurs before better angled S/SE swell into the weekend if the low hangs around in the south-east Tasman near the South Island. 

There is also the chance the low is weak and gets whisked away quickly with only a brief, small flush of S swell later next week. 

EC is also suggesting , after this weak low gets whisked away we see low pressure formation off the sub-tropical coast of SEQLD or NENSW with potential for SE-E/SE swells there into the first week of Aug. 

Again, poor model to model and run to run consistency leads to low confidence. 

We’ll keep eyes on it and see how it looks Mon.

Until then, have a great weekend!