Southern Tasmanian Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed July 23rd)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Fun E/NE swell persists through Thurs/Fri
• Another round of large NE windswell Sat easing Sun with fresh N’lies tending NW Sun
• More fun E/NE swell early next week
• S swell due Tues next week, low confidence due to model divergence, check back Fri for updates

Recap

Large NE-E/NE swells built to 5-6ft yesterday under fresh N’ly winds. Still very solid today in the 6ft+ range with N’ly winds now swinging W’ly and cleaning it up. 

This week and next week (Jul 23- Aug1)

A front and trough are now moving over the east of the continent, pushing a strong/gale force NE flow to the east and bringing offshore then SW winds as they clear the coast. High pressure then moves over the inland of NSW and slowly exits into the Tasman late Fri into Sat. We’ll see the current pattern repeat as a pre-frontal N’ly flow ramps over the weekend before a front and low bring a stiff W’ly change. The low looks to be slow moving bringing W’ly winds and not much swell before being whisked away to the SE. They next short range feature looks juicier with models now hinting at a stronger front or even slow moving cut-off low in the Tasman from mid next week, that would suggest stronger S swell as we move into August.

In the short run, we’ll see winds from the W-W/SW early, swinging SW then S’ly before shifting back W-W/NW late in the day. Todays strong E/NE swell will have waned considerably with sets to 3ft early, dropping through the day and some minor S swell to 2ft.

Friday see winds shift NW then N as the high moves NE of the state. Not much surf all day with tiny leftovers although a small late increase in NE windswell is a faint possibility. 

Much better odds for Sat with increasing N’lies extending adjacent to Tas up through the head of Bass Strait towards the NSW coast. That will see another strong NE windswell develop with size to 4-6ft likely reaching 6-8ft through the day before easing. Fresh and gusty N’ly winds tend N/NW then NW in the a’noon. 

Source of another sizey NE swell this weekend

Size will be on the decrease Sun but there should be some great leftovers in the 4-5ft range early, easing through the day, clean or cleanish under W/NW-NW winds.

Into next week and a low is expected to sulk just E of Tasmania through Mon, moving away to the SE on Tues and with high pressure up in the sub-tropics we’ll see a W tending W/NW or even NW flow to start the week. Mostly small E’ly swells that will be lucky to throw up the occ. 3ft set (mostly 2ft or so). Surf eases Tues.

From there things get more interesting. 

A front and potential cut-off low are expected to form Wed. At this stage GFS is suggesting a strong front and weak low which skips away, leading to a quick spike in S swell Wed.

EC has a much more bullish outlook with a robust cut-off low sitting in the Tasman for the second half of next week. Under this scenario we’d see an initial spike in S swell followed by more favourable SE-E/SE swell late in the week or into the weekend.

Lack of model agreement leads to low confidence in outcomes so check back Fri and we’ll see how it’s shaping up.

Uncertain outlook but swells from the south quadrant is the short take home.

We’ll continue to dial in details when we come back on Fri.

Seeya then.