Slim pickings in the Arm

Craig Brokensha picture
Craig Brokensha (Craig)

Southern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 13th November)

Best Days: No good days

Recap

Tiny to flat waves the last day or so with the swell bottoming out.

This week and weekend (Nov 14 - 20)

The coming forecast period remains slow and not overly exciting as the westerly storm track remains unfavourably positioned for our region. It's currently too north and aimed up into Western Australia with tiny to flat conditions due to prevail until late next week.

The models are showing a slight kick in S/SW swell tomorrow from the bottom of a mid-latitude low that's moving across us.

A slim fetch of strong S/SE winds are just within our swell window and we may see a tiny pulse to 1-2ft tomorrow afternoon, dropping from 1ft Sunday.

Winds look favourable most of the day with a N/NW tending variable breeze, W/SW later, then NW tending E'ly on Sunday.

The groundswell showing Monday was produced by a strong, intense low in our far far swell window on Wednesday, but again on the edge of our swell window.

There'll be nothing over 1ft from this source late Sunday and Monday.

On Tuesday a tiny W/SW windswell is likely from a strengthening mid-latitude front moving across us, with a slime fetch of strong W/SW winds due to kick up 1-1.5ft of swell through the day but with NW tending SW winds.

Longer term we look ahead to one of the mid-latitude fronts drifting south-east from under WA forming into a strong, tight low, south of that state.

This low will again just be within our swell window but form closer to us, with potential for a small 2ft of W/SW groundswell Friday. We'll have a closer look at this Monday though. Have a great weekend!

Comments

Coorongkooks's picture
Coorongkooks's picture
Coorongkooks Monday, 16 Nov 2020 at 12:40pm

Odd set on the arm late Sat/Sun.
More than I'd hoped for :)

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Monday, 16 Nov 2020 at 12:49pm

Nice, that little pulse of S'th swell?

Coorongkooks's picture
Coorongkooks's picture
Coorongkooks Tuesday, 17 Nov 2020 at 8:20am

Think so yeah, Odd set in the 3ft mark.
Banks were tough, no new news there!