XXL swell inbound for Hawaii

Craig Brokensha picture
Craig Brokensha (Craig)

Hawaii North Shore, Micronesia and PNG forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued on Tuesday 9th January)

Best Days: Every day across Hawaii (experienced surfers only Wednesday/Thursday and over the weekend and early next week - Micronesia Thursday and Friday - PNG - later this week onwards

This week and next (Jan 10 - 19)

Hawaii: The weekend's good W/NW groundswell has eased back into this morning leaving fun surf in the 6ft range, smaller this afternoon.

We'll continue to see the surf ease into tomorrow ahead of two large NW groundswells Wednesday and Thursday.

These swells have been generated by the same low, with an initial tight fetch of severe-gale to storm-force W/NW winds (producing Wednesday's increase), followed by a secondary projection of W/NW gales towards us today and early tomorrow.

We'll see Wednesday's increase providing strong 8ft sets across the North Shore on Wednesday, while Thursday's looks larger, peaking through the afternoon to 10-12ft+ before easing slowly Friday from the 10ft+ range.

Our current E'ly trades will weaken and tend variable over the coming days, light offshore each morning ahead of afternoon sea breezes, similar into the weekend.

Looking into the weekend though and we're set to see an XXL swell developing for the Hawaiian Islands.

This won't be a classic solitary strong low developing in our swell window, but more so back to back fronts setting up active sea states for the following fronts to move over as they project closer towards the islands.

An initial fetch of gale to severe-gale W/NW winds developing between Japan and the Kamchatka Peninsula will project slightly east-southeast, generating a large long-period NW groundswell on its own, but a secondary front projecting a similar fetch of NW winds down towards us on top an active sea state will generate an XXL swell for Sunday morning.

We should see a rapid and XXL increase in size Saturday from the initial swell, reaching 20-25ft by dark, with Sunday morning likely to top this and come in at 25-30ft. As stated earlier, winds are due to be variable, opening up the outer reefs for some big wave paddle/tow action. More on this Thursday.

North Shore Forecast Graph
North Shore WAMs

Micronesia: Easing surf from the weekend's large N/NW groundswell pulse, with building levels of trade-swell due through this week, peaking through Friday and Saturday though with poor and strong E/NE winds across exposed breaks.

One final N'ly groundswell pulse is expected Thursday, generated by the early stages of the low generating Hawaii's large swells this week. We should see reef passes exposed to the north building back to 4ft or so through Thursday, easing from 3ft+ Friday morning.

The XXL swell expected across Hawaii on the weekend will be generated too late in our swell window and too far east, so no size is due off this unfortunately. Longer term there's nothing too significant on the cards, so make the most of the swell due late week.

Palikir Pass Forecast Graph
Palikir Pass WAMs

Papua New Guinea: The N'ly groundswell seen through the last few days will continue to fade through tomorrow, back from 2ft to possibly 3ft early. A small kick in new N'ly groundswell is due Friday afternoon and Saturday to 3ft or so, but some better NE trade-swell will be on the build in any case.

This will be generated by a broad and strengthening fetch of E/NE trades developing through this week and and persisting through most of next week.

We should see the swell starting to build from Thursday and more so Friday, reaching 3ft+ later in the day and to a further 4-5ft through the weekend, persisting all of next week.

Winds look great with variable breezes for the most part, with E/SE trades mid-late next week.

Kavieng Forecast Graph
Kavieng WAMs


evosurfer's picture
evosurfer's picture
evosurfer Thursday, 11 Jan 2018 at 7:02pm

Should of seen pipe this afternoon (WED)8-12ft and as good as it gets off shore
mental barrels about the only surfer who wasn't out there was john john.
Only in Hawaii I left Rocky pt about 1.00pm 6ft and fun but onshore 3 hrs
later 10-15k off shore swell at least doubled and pipe was a gladiator pit.
No doubt the footage be out there tomorrow.

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot Thursday, 11 Jan 2018 at 9:04pm

Dave Wassles instagram has a video of a mental pipe set from today

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Tuesday, 16 Jan 2018 at 8:27am

Peahi yesterday..


Peahi showing her teeth yesterday

A post shared by B R E N T B I E L M A N N (@brentbielmann) on

udo's picture
udo's picture
udo Tuesday, 16 Jan 2018 at 10:40am

Dorian has one from yesterday on his insta.