Easing XL swell ahead of XXL swell Wednesday
Hawaii North Shore forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Tuesday 26th January)
Best Days: Every day over the coming period for only the most experienced surfers
This week and weekend (Jan 27 - 31)
Easing surf was seen late last week and into the weekend, ahead of a large XL kick in NW groundswell yesterday afternoon, followed by a secondary larger kick this afternoon.
These swells were generated by a multi-staged frontal progression moving in from the west over the weekend, but this has since dispersed, with easing levels of NW groundswell due into tomorrow, bottoming out dawn Wednesday.
The 51101 buoy about 500kms north-west of Hawaii is still holding in the XL range, but should start to ease from now, and with a 10 hour lag, tomorrow morning should still see 15ft+ sets easing back steadily through the day. Light variable winds are expected during the morning creating clean conditions ahead of afternoon sea breezes.
As talked about last week, an even larger XXL swell event is due into Wednesday across the islands generated by a vigorous frontal progression firing up under a strong node (peak) of the Long Wave Trough.
Satellite observations (right) have already picked up a broad fetch of storm-force 50-60kt W/NW winds aimed towards Hawaii, with the progression expected to push south-east while weakening slowly over the coming 24 hours.
A very strong long-period XXL swell will be generated by this system, but it's not quite as vast or as expansive as forecast late last week.
In saying this we should see the fore-runners in the 22s range arrive dawn Wednesday morning, with the bulk of the swell not too far behind, building rapidly through the morning to 20-25ft across selected breaks into the afternoon/evening, peaking overnight and then easing from the 15-20ft range Thursday morning.
Expect larger sets at deepwater offshore reefs.
Conditions are looking great with light morning land breezes and weak afternoon sea breezes through both Wednesday and Thursday.
The swell should continue to ease from the 10ft range Friday, further down into Saturday and Sunday as the E/NE trades kick in.
Longer term a large NW groundswell is on the cards for next Monday from a much weaker but broad storm developing to our north-west over the weekend, but more on this Thursday.