Craig

Easing swells and slower period ahead

Java, Bali, Lombok, Sumbawa forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Tue 12th Aug)

Best Days: Every day besides Thursday morning and Sunday morning when the swell will be at its lowest

This week onwards (Aug 13 onwards)

Well what a day yesterday was! A very large and powerful S/SW groundswell filled into Indonesia yesterday as fresh to strong E/SE trades favoured more protected spots over exposed locations. Certain areas saw more variable winds early though, opening up more options for a morning surf.

The swell is still large this morning but on the way out, so make the most of it if you're looking for size, as there's nothing too major on the cards for the coming week at least.

Through tomorrow we should see the swell continuing to ease, bottoming out on Thursday morning. A new long-range and inconsistent S/SW groundswell is due into the afternoon and Friday across the region, generated south-west of WA near the polar shelf.

Exposed spots should pick up inconsistent 4-5ft+ sets but fresh to strong E/SE trades will create average conditions here. Protected spots will be cleaner but much smaller

A drop in size is due into the weekend and further Sunday morning, with another late increase in long-range SW groundswell due ahead of a peak Monday morning.

The source of this swell and follow up swells through Tuesday and Wednesday is patchy frontal activity north of the Heard Island region with no real strength or consolidation. The swells from this activity are only expected to come in at an inconsistent 4-5ft+ across exposed spots Monday through Thursday before easing into the end of next week. Fresh E/SE trades should continue, but likely weaken a little through next week.

Longer term the outlook is much better, with the westerly storm track expected to fire up around this time next week, possibly setting in motion a couple of large SW groundswells for late next weekend and the following week (August 24/25th). We'll look at this in more detail on Thursday.

16 day Bali Forecast Graph
16 day East Java Forecast Graph
16 day Sumbawa Forecast Graph