This afternoon’s strong south swell is expected to peak overnight, and ease slowly through Thursday. Friday is a complex day for surf.
Pulsey south swell is the dominant theme of the week.
The models have slightly wound back the strength of the front pushing through in the lower Tasman tonight, so as a result the weekend surf forecast has correspondingly been pulled back a touch.
Look at the current conditions this way: at least when it’s flat, it can’t get any smaller.
It’s not a good week to be refining your rail technique, big wave prowess or length-in-the-barrel skillz.
Small residual energy will continue to be the dominant theme on Saturday, being a tiny influence of NE windswell and some distant, infrequent southerly swell.
Today’s S/SE swell should just hold through into Thursday morning but is expected to trend downwards during the day.
I’ve had a lot of fun analysing these complex systems in the Tasman over the last few weeks, but unfortunately our swell window has dried up and we’re looking at a lengthy period of small flukey swells, mainly from the southern quadrant.
Big and windy: that’s what this weekend has in store for us.
The most interesting aspect about Friday's outlook is the speed at which we’re likely to see wave heights ramp up across the coast.