The synoptics show a strengthening E’ly dip SW of New Caledonia, embedded in the broader trade flow, and plenty of swell generating winds extending further east into the South Pacific
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The broader trend of a slow upwards increase from Saturday through Monday is still on track.
In summary: there’s nothing major on the cards for the foreseeable future. But, there will be waves most days with a moderate summer trade pattern expected to remain steady across our eastern swell window
However, large swells are not a crucial ingredient for good surf in this neck of the woods - the key to scoring decent waves is to look for small bumps in swell energy, that coincide with periods of favourable winds
These’ll be the shortest forecast notes in weeks, I tells ya.
No major swells expected this week, and local winds will be variable tending onshore, so surface conditions won’t be terribly good.
We’re still on track for a very large E’ly pulse.
This will certainly be one of the biggest easterly groundswells in many years.
Let’s not kid ourselves - the ‘little less size’ from the second solution is still much bigger than any easterly swell seen in these waters in several years. The first solution could result in a once-in-a-decade kind of swell event.
Right now it looks like we’re potentialy in the middle of one of the longest spells of large E’ly swell in a very long time.